Statistical inaccuracies only complicate attempts to predict election results. This became clear in Tamil Nadu after polling ended in all the 39 parliamentary constituencies on April 19. This time, Tamil Nadu is witnessing a four-cornered contest. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has made several visits to the State from late February to give a push to State BJP president K. Annamalai’s first attempt to head the NDA in the State and directly challenge the DMK and AIADMK fronts.
On the evening of April 19, the political discourse was dominated by various interpretations of voter turnouts. Right-wing supporters and some anchors of television news channels headquartered in Delhi and Mumbai animatedly discussed the likely reasons for, and implications of, an “increased” voter turnout in certain constituencies.
The trigger for the excitement and the inference that Mr. Modi and Mr. Annamalai had managed to attract a far greater number of voters to the polling booths was the initial voter turnout data shared by the Chief Electoral Officer, Satyabrata Sahoo. While as per the 7 p.m. data shared by him, the overall polling percentage was 72.09, only marginally lower than the 2019 voter turnout of 72.47%, there was a sharp jump in polling in certain constituencies where star candidates had stood for elections. Of particular interest to the anchors was Coimbatore, an economically developed but communally sensitive constituency, where Mr. Annamalai was in the fray. As per the data, the constituency had “polled” 71.17% votes as opposed to 63.84% five years ago. Likewise, the three constituencies in Chennai had all recorded turnouts of more than 67%, an unusual achievement that was not seen even during some swing elections. In Chennai South, the BJP had fielded former Telangana Governor, Tamilisai Soundararajan. Supporters of the BJP, and the anchors, lost no time in declaring that the Modi-Annamalai factor was at work here. Some of them even went as far as to predict victories of the BJP candidates with record margins.
