As Liverpool’s Premier League campaign edges closer to its midway point, it’s already clear the Reds’ hopes of qualifying for next season’s Champions League are in serious peril.
Jurgen Klopp’s men currently sit sixth in the table, seven points off the top four after last week’s dismal loss to Brentford. With a trip to Brighton & Hove Albion and home clash with Chelsea their next two league outings, further defeats for the out-of-form side will see them drop even further.
Admittedly injuries haven’t helped Liverpool’s cause during the first half of the campaign, but neither has their failure to sufficiently strengthen their midfield. While club bosses are planning an engine-room overhaul in 2023 in the face of ageing stars and expiring contracts, much like how they have revamped their attack over the past 12 months, the fear is such movement could come too late.
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It’s practically an open secret that Jude Bellingham is on the Reds’ radar, with the England international believed to be Klopp’s first-choice target. Yet Borussia Dortmund have no desire to cash in on the midfielder in January, while he is set to cost over £100m having also attracted rival interest from the likes of Man City and Real Madrid.
Should Liverpool miss out on Champions League football, then their hopes of signing the long-standing target will be dealt the biggest of blows, if not be left in ruins.
When you consider that Anfield insiders have spoken about how two lists have informally been composed of summer targets the Reds can look towards depending on if they qualify for the Champions League or not, supporters are not only stressing over the prospect of missing out on Bellingham to a rival, but also the alternatives shortlisted if they are unable to offer Champions League football.
Yet such a reaction may be excessive. While a failure to deliver Champions League football could well sound as a death knell to Liverpool’s pursuit of Bellingham, their alternative list of targets is hardly going to be a desolate bargain basement of waifs and strays. Any suggestion otherwise is quite frankly disrespectful.
In midfield alone they have been linked with Bellingham, Matheus Nunes, Enzo Fernandez, Sofyan Amrabat, Moises Caicedo, Teun Koopmeiners, Joao Palhinha, Yusah Mensah, Weston McKennie, and Kouadio Kone in recent weeks, to name just a few. But even if they were to wave off all of Naby Keita, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, James Milner, and Arthur Melo in the summer, they won’t be bringing in all 10 touted targets. It’s logical that such names, where there is substance to credited interest, could be found across both lists.
After all, while a season without Champions League might feel all doom and gloom and potentially cost Liverpool their elite targets, that doesn’t mean they won’t be able to sign attractive alternatives. And besides, when addressing the recent signing of Cody Gakpo from PSV Eindhoven, Klopp, who has in the past admitted he is not particularly interested in signing players who are only motivated by money or playing in Europe’s elite competition, lauded the Dutchman’s attitude in transfer talks.
“There were easier moments to join Liverpool,” the German admitted. “Last year! We were not qualified already for the Champions League but it looked like that would happen. This year we cannot guarantee that.
“But Cody never asked! From time to time, players ask. ‘Do you think you’ll make Champions League?’ Stuff like this. He can read the table himself so knew it would be a tight decision.
“What I really like about this is he’s obviously a guy who doesn’t want to jump on a running train, he wants to push the train. I like that a lot. Good for him as well because it always helps in life if you are a little bit like that.”
Meanwhile, Liverpool have shown in the past what can be done in the transfer market even when you miss out on Champions League football.
Last competing in the Europa League in 2015/16, the summer of 2015 admittedly won’t be regarded as the Reds’ best ever transfer window. But in hindsight, it has actually aged rather well as the Reds enjoyed an £85.5m spending spree.
While partly financed by the sale of Raheem Sterling to Man City, and the removal of Steven Gerrard’s wages from the wage bill after his Bosman transfer to LA Galaxy, Liverpool would sign Christian Benteke (£32.5m), Roberto Firmino (£29m), Nathaniel Clyne (£12.5m), Danny Ings (£8m), Joe Gomez (£3.5m), James Milner (Free), and Adam Bogdan (Free) that summer.
Fast forward 12 months, as Klopp’s side entered a season without any European football whatsoever and their spending was slightly more modest at £67.9m. Yet, they still made some crucial signings as Sadio Mane (£34m), Gini Wijnaldum (£25m), Loris Karius (£4.7m), Ragnar Klavan (£4.2m), Joel Matip (Free), and Alex Manninger (Free) all joined the club. Admittedly some of these signings will be looked upon more favourably than others, but it hardly presents a picture of buying from the doldrums.
And let’s not forget these campaigns came at a time when Liverpool had competed in the Champions League just once since 2009/10, with such a record admittedly seeing them miss out on other targets. But now they are ever-presents under Klopp since 2017/18 and have reached the final on three occasions. While it might not be the easiest moment to join the club, it’s a much easier sell to prospective players.
While there will be costly ramifications should they miss out on Champions League football and its financial rewards, having also grown accustomed to them in recent years, the Reds will still be well-placed to strengthen. Even if that means being limited to signing from their ‘dreaded’ list of alternative targets.
Besides, it’s ultimately worked out alright for Liverpool’s ‘Big Six’ rivals in recent years, when they were forced to make do and strengthen their squad without the riches of Champions League football.
This summer alone, Premier League leaders Arsenal parted with £115m to sign Gabriel Jesus (£45m), Oleksandr Zinchenko (£30m), Fabio Vieira (£30m), Matt Turner (£7m), and Marquinhos (£3m). Meanwhile, Manchester United reportedly spent a heftier £228.5m when signing Antony (£86.3m), Casemiro (£70m), Lisandro Martinez (£57.5m), and Tyrell Malacia (£14.7m), along with Christian Eriksen on a free transfer. That is more than £340m combined in deals for those two clubs just a few months ago.
A further look back over recent seasons and you’ll find further big-name and big-money arrivals at the Reds’ ‘Big Six’ rivals despite their lack of Champions League football.
The 2017/18 season saw Arsenal spend a combined £102.5m on Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£56m) and Alexandre Lacazette (£46.5m), while also swapping Henrikh Mkhitaryan for the wantaway Alexis Sanchez. Meanwhile, the summer of 2019 saw them part with £138m when signing Nicolas Pepe (£72m), William Saliba (£27m), Kieran Tierney (£25m), David Luiz (£8m), and Gabriel Martinelli (£6m), before Thomas Partey (£45m) and Gabriel (£27m) signed up 12 months later.
Switching attentions to Chelsea, they spent £180.9m on Kepa Arrizabalaga (£72m), Christian Pulisic (£57.6m), and Jorginho (£51.3m) in the 2018/19 season as they competed in the Europa League, while also signing both Mateo Kovacic and Gonzalo Higuain on loan.
As for Manchester United, the mammoth signings of Paul Pogba (£93.5) and Harry Maguire (£80m) both came at the start of seasons in the Europa League in 2016/17 and 2019/20 respectively. They’d also sign Eric Bailly (£30m), Henrikh Mkhitaryan (£26.3m), and Zlatan Ibrahimovic (Free) in an £149.8m spending spree before the former season, and Bruno Fernandes (£67.7m), Aaron Wan-Bissaka (£50m), and Dan James (£15m) when parting with £212.7m across the latter campaign.
Meanwhile, a lack of Champions League football hasn’t prevented Tottenham Hotspur from signing the likes of Son Heung-min (£22m), Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg (£15m), Rodrigo Bentancur (£15.8m), Toby Alderweireld (£11.4m), and Gareth Bale, Christian Romero, and Dejan Kulusevski (all on loan) in recent years.
A season of Europa League, Europa Conference League or without Europe altogether is far from ideal. It’s not what Liverpool want and they will continue to push hard for the top four in the second half of the season, hoping they can recreate their unlikely third place finish against the odds in 2020/21.
But could anyone claim with absolute certainty that should Liverpool miss out on the Champions League, they would then be stuck in the wilderness rather than manage to bounce back immediately by qualifying next season?
Without the offer of Champions League football, some players will snub the Reds. That goes without saying. Failed pursuits of the likes of Henrikh Mkhitaryan, Willian, and Mario Gotze in yesteryear prove that. Yet, in hindsight, Liverpool will have no regrets.
Let’s also not forget that some of their most successful signings in recent years were not first-choice targets, with moves only made for the likes of Sadio Mane and Mohamed Salah after Gotze and Julian Brandt had snubbed the Reds.
Ultimately, as Klopp so eloquently put it, Liverpool want players who are happy to push the train. If they do find themselves facing a season without Champions League, they’ll need such players more than ever.
And even if they miss out on Bellingham as a result, there will still be enough funds and players of high enough quality on their alternative transfer list to get that Reds train moving once again.
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