PITTSBURGH — Circling the state just three months before the November election, Democrat Josh Shapiro and Republican Doug Mastriano — gubernatorial contenders hoping to take over for Gov. Tom Wolf — agree on one thing:
The stakes are higher than ever, and they — not their opponent — can meet this crucial moment in Pennsylvania's history.
Shapiro, the sitting attorney general, has used the stakes as a sledgehammer. He's been repeatedly labeling Mastriano an extremist and telling voters that his opponent needs to be stopped.
Cognizant of the fact that Republicans are on the verge of complete legislative and executive control in Harrisburg, the Democrat has framed his own candidacy as a work-across-the-aisle antidote to chaos and division — an effort that will benefit Pennsylvanians who are struggling economically.
Mastriano, a state senator whose district is centered in Adams County, has rolled through southwestern Pennsylvania over the past week to tout what supporters call a people-powered campaign. He says Democrats — and their friends in the media — are underestimating the size of his movement, and voters understand he's a change agent who can right the wrongs of Democratic control.
A detailed look at the candidates' recent public messaging shows a race that could be one of the most significant — and contentious — in the country, at a time when the GOP legislature here seems poised to act on numerous key issues, if only they had a governor's approval and not his veto pen.
Different leaders
Shapiro is apparently an avid reader of national news.
As soon as it was revealed this week that his opponent had cut his interview short with the U.S. House Jan. 6 Committee without answering questions, Shapiro turned to his social media channels to blast Mastriano, asking why the senator — who was outside the Capitol the day of the insurrection — won't comply with either the committee or a congressional subpoena.
Responding to the tweet with a GIF of Kourtney Kardashian in a judicial robe exclaiming "Guilty," Hillary Kleinz, a Shapiro supporter and state legislative campaign manager in Allentown, agreed that Mastriano had questions to answer.
Kleinz, 44, said she supports Shapiro because he takes government seriously and has built trust over the years. She grew up in Montgomery County and watched him become county commissioner there, and she said that when it was clear he was the heir apparent to Wolf, she was excited.
"If Josh is elected, I think we're going to have some really strong leadership," Kleinz said. "He has always been able to set a pretty clear agenda and get things done, and I don't think that's necessarily dependent on the makeup of the Legislature."
He's been a legislator, Kleinz noted — serving in the 153rd District from 2004 to 2012 before becoming a commissioner. Shapiro has been leaning into that image in the early stages of his campaign, saying that he has a unique ability to work across the aisle to get things done. He's touted the support of numerous Republicans, mostly former officials, who have said they like his style of politics and fear Mastriano's.
Republicans, meanwhile, are hoping Mastriano can continue to cultivate a movement — and insist that voters haven't yet seen enough of the candidates to see a clear contrast. They note that Mastriano wasn't expected to win the primary in a crowded field with some stellar resumes but had much more support than anyone had thought.
One veteran GOP strategist said Mastriano can use his military experience as a distinguishing strength, too, especially going up against a law enforcement official at a time crime is increasing. Mastriano served in the Army and was deployed with NATO, a service career spanning three decades.
Messaging
GOP messengers are encouraging Mastriano to link Shapiro to President Joe Biden, who is taking the brunt of the blame for the economic downturn and whose approval ratings are low. Republican insiders say they want him to stick to the issues, too.
Mastriano has been doing this, for the most part, repeatedly railing against the Democrats' "failed policies that led to soaring inflation and gas prices," he said in a recent Facebook post.
The senator did some interviews this week with conservative-leaning outlets and figureheads while taking a swing through southwest Pennsylvania with his wife. He said, in one interview, that he wants to put power back in the hands of the people and make Pennsylvania the "Florida of the north" — noting that Florida's governor, Ron DeSantis, is coming to Pittsburgh this week to stump for him.
In a midweek trip to a coffee house in Washington County, he worked the room, one by one, to talk with each attendee about the issues instead of giving a speech, said Dave Ball, the county GOP chair. He delivered the same message he delivers from the podium: that he'll slash bureaucracy, cut down on wasteful spending, fight for election reform and trim taxes, Ball said.
Ball said the candidate did a good job of winding up his base, packing the room with pin-wearing supporters. But at some point, he added, you have to find new voters — "I'm sure he does that and will do that," he added.
For now, the message that Mastriano is presenting — that he's a fighter against Democratic tyranny — is starting to resonate with independents and moderates, Ball said.
"If you put down a side-by-side comparison on things like taxes, inflation and the energy industry and say, 'OK, whose policies reflect my thinking more?' I think Republicans and independents are going to say that whether you were initially in love with Mastriano or not, we're going to certainly learn to love him right now," Ball said.
Shapiro hasn't let Republicans single-handedly own the economic talk. He's put out a plan to cut red tape in Pennsylvania to entice businesses to move here and stay here, and he's outlined a pitch to cut an obscure, costly state cell phone tax and give people gas rebates.
He's also advocated for cutting the state's corporate net income tax to among the lowest in the nation, going beyond members of his own party in an effort to cultivate a "customer service-oriented, business-friendly government."
But most of Shapiro's messaging comes across as a warning. His campaign launched three advertisements on Facebook and Instagram in the last week, all saying — one way or another — that donors should contribute if they want to stop his extremist opponent.
In a viral tweet, Shapiro called on Pennsylvanians to help defend democracy by supporting his campaign. He alluded to Mastriano's involvement in the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot, and the FBI raid last week of former President Donald Trump's home at Mar-a-Lago in Florida.
"I'm Josh Shapiro, nominee for Governor in Pennsylvania. I didn't cross police barriers at the Capitol on Jan. 6, I've never been subpoenaed by Congress, and I haven't been raided by the FBI," Shapiro wrote. "Stand with me to beat the guys who can't say the same and defend the rule of law."
Mastriano organized two buses from central Pennsylvania to watch Trump's speech that preceded the riot at the Capitol. His lawyer told The Associated Press that he "knows nothing about any insurrection" and did not witness any violence or see any firearms.
The lawyer, Timothy Parlatore, told the outlet that Mastriano would be willing to testify publicly before the House committee investigating the insurrection.
He said they cut the meeting short because Mastriano wanted to be able to record the interview to prevent the committee from "putting out a false or misleading quote that would potentially impact the election."
Ball said he doesn't think the "extremist" label is sticking to Mastriano right now. What's so extreme, he asked, about wanting to cut back on spending?
Kleinz said it's certainly sticking, and that there are real patriots in America who aren't OK with someone who participated in the Jan. 6 insurrection. He didn't just shake hands with attendees; he bused people down, she noted.
"I think the 30% of Republicans that are die-hard loyalists are not going to be persuaded to not vote for Doug, but there's a wide swath of independents and in both parties who see him as the threat he would be," Kleinz said.
She said she worries that if Mastriano is elected, the worst impulses of the Republican Legislature will have no checks anymore. There'd be no more vetoes.
"We haven't made a lot of progress in Pennsylvania over the last 10 years," Kleinz said. "No matter who gets in charge, they're going to most likely still have a Republican majority Legislature, and they are going to come up with the craziest bills possible."
