Jonathan Taylor’s hold-in worked. After months of terse negotiations, public trade requests and speculation as to just how damaging the ankle injury that kept him from the field for the first four weeks of the season was, 2021’s rushing leader has a healthy new contract.
Taylor signed a three-year, $42 million deal that will, on paper, keep him with the Indianapolis Colts through 2026. It includes $26.5 million in guarantees, making the fourth-year star the third-highest paid running back in the NFL behind Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara.
This is a win for Taylor and another loss for running back value. The league’s salary cap has inflated by roughly 29 percent between 2024’s estimated $256 million and then $198.2 million it was since those deals were signed in 2020. But Taylor’s getting paid 6.7 percent less annually than Kamara. He’ll make 13 percent less in guarantees than McCaffrey.
He is, in a league defined by big contracts and a ballooning salary cap, underpaid.
I can confirm, per a league source, that RB Jonathan Taylor and the #Colts have agreed to a three-year, $42 million contract extension with $26.5M guaranteed. @TheAthleticNFL @RapSheet was first. pic.twitter.com/VrHSMoMl1i
— James Boyd (@RomeovilleKid) October 7, 2023
Let’s start with everything good about Taylor. He’s a monster with the ball in his hands. Upon his arrival, the Colts’ explosive run play rate at running back — rushes for at least 12 yards — jumped from a top 10 unit (12 percent) to a top two squad (15 percent in Taylor’s rookie and sophomore seasons).
He ran for nearly 3,000 yards and 29 touchdowns between 2020 and 2021, more than anyone in the NFL in that span. In 2021 alone 700 of his rushing yards came on just 23 breakaway runs — no other player in the league came close to that total.
Taylor wasn’t just a home run hitter. He was vital to keeping his entire offense on schedule. No full-time running back could match his first down rate in 2021 (107 in 332 carries, 32 percent). His 55.4 success rate — a play that picks up at least 50 percent of yards required to move the chains on first down, 70 percent of yards to gain on second down and 100 percent on third or fourth down — was second only to Austin Ekeler (55.8, pay him too, Chargers) when it came to players with at least 200 carries.
Or, if advanced stats aren’t your thing, he averaged 106 rushing yards per game and pushed late-stage Carson Wentz (!) to a winning record.
But then he dealt with injuries in 2022 that left him merely above average. His rushing yards over expected (RYOE, an NFL advanced stat that separates a player’s outcomes from what an average player would be expected to do in the same situation) dropped from 1.2 — tops among full-time RBs — to 0.7 … which was fourth. The Colts bottomed out around him and contract extension negotiations fell to the wayside as team owner Jim Irsay hired the worst head coaching candidate of the modern era, tanked to a top four spot and, in his free time, antagonized his star player both privately and publicly.
Phew.
Taylor is only 24 years old. He’s slightly older than McCaffrey was when he signed his four-year, $64 million deal and younger than Kamara when he signed a five-year, $75 million pact. The biggest difference between Taylor and these two is his his lack of receiving output. The Colt’s career output of 104 catches and 802 receiving yards is roughly what you’d expect from either McCaffrey or Kamara over a season and a half on the field.
At the same time, neither player can touch Taylor’s success rate on the ground. He may not bring the vital value his peers do in the passing game — his success and first down rates seriously lag behind either through the air — but he helps his quarterbacks in other important ways. Namely, he churns out tough yardage and avoids third-and-long situations that can doom drives.
In 2021, Taylor’s breakout season, the Colts ranked 12th in third down conversion rate (41 percent). In 2022, with Taylor battling injury, they dropped to 29th (32.9). Through four games of 2023 Indianapolis ranks 26th (33.9).
Now he gets the chance to make life easier for Anthony Richardson, an honest-to-god promising young quarterback. This is important! Here’s a list of the other quarterbacks who’ve started games for the Colts in the Jonathan Taylor era:
- a 39-year-old Philip Rivers
- Carson Wentz
- a 37-year old Matt Ryan
- Sam Ehlinger
- Nick Foles
Wins are a team stat, but it’s worth nothing Indianapolis was 22-16-1 in games where Taylor got at least 10 carries despite starting that smorgasbord of fantasy football waiver wire flotsam at quarterback over the last three seasons. His value goes beyond raw rushing yards; Jonathan Taylor makes things better for his quarterbacks, regardless of how old, inexperienced or flat-out mediocre they may be.
Thus, the sudden job security is a win for Taylor but a loss for running backs. The pay scale at the position continues to lag behind the rest of the league, and while Taylor got a tidy sum his $14 million annually remains a step down from the contracts doled out three years earlier. And if team owners and general managers can do that to Jonathan Taylor, what hope do the rest of the NFL’s tailbacks have of breaking the cycle?
