The most predictable story in the world gets recycled whenever a first-term president becomes unpopular and his jittery party starts wondering whether other options are better than nominating him for re-election. So with President Joe Biden’s approval ratings sagging below 40%, here comes a column by Ed Kilgore at New York magazine asking whether Democrats are “stuck” with Biden in 2024.
To answer, set aside (legitimate!) questions about whether Biden, now 79, is too old for a second term. Tune out consideration of whether Democrats believe he would be a good second-term president. Turn to the way electoral politics actually unfolds.
Unpopular presidents have lost re-election bids — Donald Trump, George H.W. Bush, Jimmy Carter, Gerald Ford. The last two times an unpopular president who was eligible dropped out of a re-nomination fight, in 1952 and 1968, his party lost anyway. This is hardly surprising. If a president is unpopular, then his party will be unpopular. George W. Bush couldn’t run for a third term in 2008, but given his low approval ratings, Republicans never had a chance that year.
