Most of the focus during midterm primary season has been on the Republicans. Rightly so; after all, not only are there important internal fights playing out in GOP nomination battles, but the outcome could determine the fate of U.S. democracy. It’s a huge story that Pennsylvania Republicans have chosen a candidate for governor who appears ready, if he is elected, to certify the Republican presidential candidate as the winner of the state’s electoral votes regardless of what voters say.
It’s also the case that Republican primaries appear to be more likely to affect November outcomes. That Pennsylvania candidate, state Sen. Doug Mastriano, is widely seen as a terrible general election candidate — so much so that the Cook Report and other neutral rating groups shifted the race from toss-up to leans Democratic after the primary results were in. The same would have been the case had Pennsylvania Republicans chosen Kathy Barnette, a participant in the Washington protest marches that culminated in the Capitol riot of Jan. 6, 2021, as their Senate candidate.
There just aren’t a lot of primary elections this year on the Democratic side, especially in contests for governor and U.S. Senate, that appear likely to have any similar effect on the general election. That’s not to say that Democrats are selecting perfect candidates; no party does that. But given the very high levels of partisan polarization among voters, candidates usually don’t matter much to general election outcomes — with the big potential exceptions of the ones whose flaws are so strong that they may be able to harm their party’s prospects.
