If Jonas Vingegaard does indeed lose this Tour de France, and current projections suggest he will, then he’ll have no problem identifying the difference between him and Tadej Pogačar in the subsequent post-race analysis: the Slovenian’s blistering attacks
On Saturday, above the clouds on Pla d’Adet in the Pyrenees, Pogačar delivered one of his customary stinging jolts from the pack, or, to quote Remco Evenepoel from stage two, one of his “ticking time bombs”. It was the fifth stage out of 14 that the UAE Team Emirates rider has lit the fuse on his grenade, and this time he had greater success than in his previous attempts, putting 39 seconds into Visma-Lease a Bike’s Vingegaard and 1:10 into Soudal Quick-Step’s Evenepoel to give him a lead of 1:57 at the top of the general classification.
Vingegaard kept with his arch-rival’s expected strikes on stages two and nine, and impressively recovered on stage 11 before beating him in a sprint, but in the two high mountain days to date, Pogačar has taken 35 and 39 seconds out of Vingegaard. When the Slovenian goes, he’s hard to reign in, and that’s proving the difference between the pair right now.
“We knew he had this crazy attack and maybe the last three kilometres of the climb suited him a bit better with the flatter part and downhill,” Vingegaard reflected after stage 14. “In that case, it made sense [that Pogačar won] because he has more total power than I have. I did a really good performance, I cannot be disappointed in that… but of course it’s disappointing to lose 40 seconds.”
Vingegaard’s teammate, Matteo Jorgenson, described Pogačar as “very explosive” and having an “attack that is super strong when he goes. I think the difference is in their rider profiles.” Their sports director, Grischa Niermann, said the attack, made 4.6km from the summit, “wasn’t rocket science”, and admitted that “we wanted a different outcome, but today Pogačar was on a different level.”
There is, however, hope and optimism among Visma-Lease a Bike: no longer do they need to be convinced or reassured that the defending champion has the form and condition after his injury, but more than that, the ensuing seven stages, a week that will ultimately decide who will win the race, appear to lend themselves more to Vingegaard’s characteristics.
A near-two minute deficit does not signal the end of Vingegaard’s chances, and, indeed, he found reasons to be positive on the Pla d'Adet, despite it being the most damaging day so far. “I was getting closer to him on the steeper parts,” he pointed out.
Stage 15, a 198km trek east across the Pyrenees with more than 5,000m of climbing, is to the Dane’s liking. “Tomorrow’s another day and maybe a day that suits me even better,” he said. “I think it’s in my favour. Today was very short and tomorrow is a harder day. The longer and the harder it is, the better it is for me.”
In the recent two Tours, Vingegaard has made his biggest gains against Pogačar at high altitude in the Alps – and stage 19, which crosses over the Cime de la Bonette at 2,802m is prime Jonas Vingegaard territory. It’s plausible that he’s biding his time for the queen stage, but that’s also a risky game to play, for he can’t let Pogačar get out of sight.
There are only so many 30 second attacks by Pogačar that can be permitted, and Vingegaard needs to start attacking now and not wait for his adversary to make the first move. “We have to try and gain time somewhere,” Niermann acknowledged. “We will try until the Tour finishes in Nice, but for now he’s almost two minutes behind.”
It’s not over, and it should never be counted as over with Vingegaard, the only rider who has consistently inflicted heavy defeats on Pogačar, but Nice is only a week away. Is it still possible that Vingegaard can win? “Yes it is,” he stated. Three words, each one delivered with conviction. He just needs to find a way to tame Pogačar’s ticking time bombs.
