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“I MADE it clear to him that I intend to continue to pursue the importance of the democratic right of the people of Scotland to decide their own future should be respected.”
Those were the words of First Minister John Swinney when, in a press huddle with Scottish media last week, he was asked if he accepted that Prime Minister Andy Burnham “is not going to agree to indyref2”.
The elephant in the room, then, was Swinney’s much-reported “secret plan” to get a second independence vote. What is it? Will he deploy it? Now, with a new, arguably mandate-less, Prime Minister in office would seem the perfect time?
Asked all of these questions, the First Minister was evasive.
“I want to make sure we have a referendum on independence,” he said. “I want to make sure it happens, and that's what I'm going to concentrate on, making sure it happens.”
The first thing to note is that Swinney clearly doesn’t have a secret plan.
The second thing to note is that in this situation, with the SNP short of an outright majority in the Scottish Parliament, he never claimed to.
The words Swinney originally spoke back in October last year – which have since been distorted and misreported – were: "Nobody knows the tactics I’m going to deploy if we get 65 seats, so keep watching.”
The SNP did not win 65 seats (a majority in the 129-seat Holyrood parliament). They won 58. So any secret plan Swinney may have had is a bust.
And anyway, the reality is that there are no secret shortcuts, hidden hacks, smart workarounds, or backdoor tricks to independence.
Like those children on the bear hunt, Swinney cannot go over Westminster, cannot go under it, and cannot go around it. The only way is through.
Speaking to The National Podcast this week, newly elected SNP MP Lara Bird seemed to acknowledge this – and pointed to a way to a second independence referendum that must be the most realistic option available.
“What do we do when we keep having Westminster governments keep saying no?” she asked.
“I think you've got to be really realistic about what's going to happen in Westminster. I think there's a really strong chance that we have a hung parliament [after the 2029 General Election].”
Bird went on: “So you essentially have a situation where Labour, if they did remain in government, would have to work really closely with a lot of the smaller parties, including the SNP, where deals would be struck and negotiations would be had about how Labour got what they wanted whilst also giving others what they wanted.
“I think that provides a very unique opportunity for the SNP down in Westminster, where we are likely going to return – I hope we certainly return – 40-plus MPs at the next General Election, where in a hung parliament that gives us a really strong opportunity to negotiate with a Labour government.”
Maybe that is the most realistic route to a second independence referendum?
No UK Prime Minister wants to be the one who presides over the end of the Union, and there is a widespread (unspoken) expectation that should Scotland have a second vote, that is what will happen.
For the same reason, a SNP majority at Holyrood is likely a dead end. It’s only one chance every five years to up-end a system built to prevent single-party majorities – and even if it happens, we’re back to ‘Westminster’s saying no, we need a secret plan’. Some bet.
It's not too outlandish to think that independence could be won when the SNP holds enough political leverage at Westminster that a referendum becomes the price of doing business. It does, however, mean hard-working activists waiting for yet another General Election.
That may disappoint those hoping for a dramatic reveal of a “secret plan”. But politics has always been about power. In a hung parliament, the SNP may hold it.
