ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — When spring training began last season, the computer models at Baseball Prospectus put Atlanta’s odds of winning the National League East at 20-to-1. Eight months later, the Braves were World Series champions. That’s not a knock on analytics, it’s a nod to unpredictability.
As much as advanced metrics have shaped the game in recent years, baseball is still a game played by people who surprise, disappoint, frustrate and invigorate us all on a daily basis across 162 games. So approach these 2022 rankings for exactly what they are worth. That is to say, nothing. At least not once the games begin.
30. Pittsburgh Pirates
If MLB ever contemplates soccer’s relegation system, this will be Exhibit A. The Pirates are what you might euphemistically deem a non-competitive franchise. They’ve been below .500 in five of the last six seasons, and have finished in last place three years in a row. So what did the Pirates do to get better in 2022? They signed free-agent catcher Roberto Perez, who has hit .165 and .149 the past two years.
29. Baltimore Orioles
Not sure the Orioles understand the concept of rebuilding. You see, eventually the goal is to start winning again. Baltimore tore its roster apart in 2018 and has never put it back together again. The Orioles have a winning percentage of .326 the past four years, which is flirting with expansion Mets misery. They may be slightly better in 2022, but it’ll hardly be noticeable in the AL East.
28. Colorado Rockies
The Rockies traded Nolan Arenado to the Cardinals and agreed to pay about $50 million of the $214 million owed on his deal. A year later, they signed Kris Bryant to a seven-year, $182 million deal. Factor in the $50 million they’re paying St. Louis, and the Rockies have a $232 million expenditure. They’re also moving Bryant to leftfield. So they get an inferior player at a less valuable position while spending more money.
27. Arizona Diamondbacks
Not that we’re petty or competitive, but for the first time in 24 years the Rays have a chance to surpass Arizona in all-time winning percentage. Tampa Bay was the better team for most of the inaugural 1998 expansion season before stumbling in the final week. The Diamondbacks have been the superior club ever since. Until, perhaps, now. The Rays are 14 wins behind going into 2022.
26. Washington Nationals
Juan Soto, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Fernando Tatis Jr. are all 23. All came up within a year of each other. Only one has a career batting average above .300 (Soto), an on-base percentage above .400 (Soto) and a WAR above 17 (Soto). Yet Soto gets far less attention than the other two. I bring this up because he’s the only reason to watch the Nationals this summer.
25. Kansas City Royals
Future Hall of Famer Zack Greinke took a $22 million pay cut to return to Kansas City. Of course, he’s still making $13 million which, I imagine, softens the blow. I bring this up only because Greinke was the centerpiece of Kansas City’s offseason upgrades. That’s right, a team that was 13th in the AL in runs scored, splurged on a 38-year-old pitcher with a 4.12 ERA the last two seasons.
24. Oakland Athletics
The Athletics are going through another one of their inevitable down cycles. They made the playoffs for three years (2012-14), fell below .500 for three years (2015-17), made three more playoff appearances (2018-20) and are tearing the roster down again. If you’re a Rays fan, this is a little unsettling. Oakland, with its revenue and stadium problems, is a mirror image of Tampa Bay.
23. Chicago Cubs
Imagine being a Cubs fan and skimming your 2016 World Series scorebook. In this single offseason, Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Kyle Schwarber, Anthony Rizzo and Jorge Soler signed free-agent contracts totaling $469 million. Meanwhile, the 2022 Cubs will be a mishmash of new faces including Marcus Stroman, Yan Gomes, Seiya Suzuki, Jonathan Villar, Andrelton Simmons and Drew Smyly.
22. Cincinnati Reds
Tommy Pham in Cincinnati? Oh, this should be fun. It’s the ultimate me-first player in an old-school town. Pham has been a decent player in three previous stops and he’s motivated after not getting the long-term deal he wanted, but it wouldn’t be a shock if he was dealt by July. The Reds are in a rebuild mode, although they could challenge for second place in the awful Central.
21. Detroit Tigers
Bless their hearts, the Tigers tried. They committed more than $235 million on Javier Baez, Eduardo Rodriguez, Michael Pineda and Andrew Chafin in free agency. That’s big-boy spending. Unfortunately, the Tigers need more than a handful of expensive upgrades. And with Miguel Cabrera on the books for two more years at a total of $64 million, they’re still limited with their options.
20. Miami Marlins
Avisail Garcia has one of the more interesting trend lines in the game. In even-numbered years since 2016, he has a .240 batting average and a .393 slugging percentage. In odd-numbered years (including his one season in Tampa Bay) he has a .293 average and a .487 slugging percentage. Don’t know what it means, but signing Garcia and Jorge Soler to free-agent deals does not make Miami a contender.
19. Texas Rangers
The Rangers are like that kid in class that worked harder than anyone else on a term paper, but somehow misspelled the teacher’s name. They invested more than $600 million in free agency, locking up Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Jon Gray, among others, but are they really playoff contenders? Is their rotation good enough? Are Seager’s best days already behind him? Stay tuned.
18. Cleveland Guardians
It’s kind of sad to see what has become of this franchise. In 2016, it went into the ninth inning of Game 7 of the World Series with the score tied against the Cubs. Cleveland had a killer rotation, two superstars in the lineup and all kinds of potential. The team since has gone 2-8 in the postseason and traded most of its talent with mixed results in return.
17. St. Louis Cardinals
After fielding a top-10 payroll for the past four seasons, the Cardinals are drifting down toward league average. That’s kind of criminal for a franchise that enjoys as much fan support as St. Louis gives. The Cardinals may be a wild-card contender just because they’ll play so many games against weak Central opponents, but that’s hardly worth celebrating. Nor is the return of Albert Pujols.
16. Minnesota Twins
Swap Andrelton Simmons, Josh Donaldson, Michael Pineda and Mitch Garver for Carlos Correa, Gio Urshela, Sonny Gray and Gary Sanchez and what do you get? Hopefully more than 73 wins, which is what the Twins had in 2021. Minnesota smartly moved the $51.5 million it owed Donaldson and reinvested in Correa. If all goes well, Correa will have a monster season, opt out of his deal and the Twins will have a division title.
15. Los Angeles Angels
By the end of his third season in Tampa Bay, Joe Maddon had won a pennant. By the end of his third season in Chicago, he had won a World Series. This is his third season in Anaheim, and the goals are not as lofty. The Angels upgraded their rotation with Noah Syndergaard and Alex Cobb and spent serious money on the bullpen, but 85-90 wins would seem like a huge step forward.
14. Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies are three years into the Bryce Harper era and two games below .500. That’s a little unfair since Harper won the MVP award in 2021, but it does point out the lack of a cohesive plan. So what did the Phillies do? They continued playing fantasy baseball by adding solid bats (Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber) with zero concern for one of MLB’s worst defenses.
13. Seattle Mariners
Did you know the Mariners won more games in the regular season than the world champion Braves in 2021? It’s true, Seattle won 90 games while still extending its mind-blowing streak of missing the playoffs to 20 seasons. They’ve added three former All-Stars (Jesse Winker, Adam Frazier and Eugenio Suarez) and the reigning Cy Young winner (Robbie Ray) and may finally push Houston.
12. San Francisco Giants
Buster Posey, who retired at 34, does not have the cumulative stats of most Hall of Famers, but consider this: From 2010-21, the Giants went to the playoffs five times and won the World Series three times. In the prior 55 seasons, the Giants had eight playoff appearances and no world championships. And that includes teams with Willie Mays, Willie McCovey, Juan Marichal, Orlando Cepeda and Barry Bonds.
11. Houston Astros
The computer models still love the Astros, and they were just two victories from winning the World Series in October. But they did not do a whole lot in the offseason and lost Carlos Correa. Houston had a .644 winning percentage in the AL West in 2021 and .535 everywhere else. That won’t be so easy in 2022 with upgrades in both Seattle and Texas.
10. Boston Red Sox
No reason to be jealous of the Red Sox. Just because they bounced the Rays from the ALDS last season, and just because their payroll is twice as large, and just because GM Chaim Bloom is employing a lot of the strategies he learned during his 15 seasons in Tampa Bay, there is no cause for envy here. On the other hand, if Michael Wacha starts pitching like a big-leaguer again …
9. Chicago White Sox
The White Sox won 93 games last season, had four different pitchers get votes for Cy Young and were third in the majors in on-base percentage. This either means they are a legitimate World Series contender, or the AL Central is a Triple-A league in disguise. Considering they were outscored 31-18 in a four-game ALDS against the Astros, I’m leaning toward the Triple-A theory.
8. Tampa Bay Rays
First, a confession. I’m really not sure how the Rays won 100 games last season. I mean, none of their pitchers got a single Cy Young vote, their top finisher in the MVP race was 10th and the only hitter with a batting average above .275 was a rookie. That’s just not normal for a dominant team. In a weird way, they may actually be a better team in 2022 but won’t win as many games.
7. New York Mets
Money may not buy you love, but owner Steve Cohen seems to think it can buy a pennant. A year after signing Francisco Lindor to a $341 million, 10-year deal, the Mets gave Max Scherzer $130 million for three years, signed Starling Marte and hired Buck Showalter. Heaven knows if it will all work, but at least it’ll be entertaining as heck.
6. Atlanta Braves
The Braves had no business winning the World Series in 2021. They were below .500 for months and lost Ronald Acuna at midseason. Yet they took advantage of a weak division, then got hot at the perfect time. So what’s the encore? How about letting franchise icon Freddie Freeman leave town and still getting better by acquiring Matt Olson and rebuilding the bullpen with Kenley Jansen, Collin McHugh and Kirby Yates.
5. San Diego Padres
It’s difficult to quantify — and modern analytics typically downplay the effects of managers — but I might be willing to bet that Bob Melvin has as much impact in the National League as any acquisition in 2022. The longtime Oakland manager will bring serenity and a sense of purpose to a team that was loaded with talent last season but drastically underperformed.
4. New York Yankees
New York has three guys in the middle of the order who have won an MVP, or been a serious candidate, more than a half-dozen times. Those three players — Josh Donaldson, Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton — are also staring at the wrong side of 30 and have played in just 67 percent of their games from 2019-21. If they stay healthy, the Yankees are very good. If not? Oops.
3. Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers brought in Hunter Renfroe and Andrew McCutcheon for a total commitment of about $16.1 million. By comparison, the Phillies are paying Kyle Schwarber $79 million over four years. So the Phillies win the offseason headlines, but Milwaukee’s under-the-radar moves ensure that the Brewers will be going to the playoffs for the fifth consecutive season.
2. Toronto Blue Jays
Hey, guys, don’t worry about the pressure. Nope, no reason for your jocks to get tight just because you’re the oddsmakers’ darling. I’m sure Vladimir Guerrero Jr. can flirt with the Triple Crown again, and Kevin Gausman can replace Cy Young winner Robbie Ray and Hyun Jin Ryu can put that career-worst 4.37 ERA behind him. No more sneaking up on anybody, right?
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
This is not a rant, just an, um, observation about competitive balance in baseball. The Dodgers lost their shortstop (Corey Seager), ace (Max Scherzer) and closer (Kenley Jansen) to free agency and may still be a better team than 2021. Signing Freddie Freeman adds character to the clubhouse and the lineup. Not that L.A. needed it. The Dodgers won 106 games last year and could repeat the feat in 2022.
