LAKE BUENA VISTA, Fla. — They have a reputation for being fearless, and it is well-earned.
The Rays traded Blake Snell two years after he won a Cy Young Award. They dealt Austin Meadows a year after he drove in 106 runs. They gave up top pitching prospects for Nelson Cruz (Pffffft!) and Randy Arozarena (Woo hoo!) in separate deals 18 months apart.
But what the Rays have done so far this offseason may be their biggest gamble yet.
They are going all-in on … the status quo.
They looked at a lineup that was 21st in the majors in runs scored in 2022, and decided it was an aberration. They perused the free agent and trade markets for available bats, and decided the value did not match the cost. They took a hard look at one of the most feeble offensive performances in postseason history, and decided they had the necessary ingredients to correct it.
The organization that routinely leads the league in tinkering, and could run a master level course in tweaking has brazenly decided to — mostly — stand its ground coming off its weakest season since 2017.
Is that wise? Obviously, the Rays think so.
The rest of us probably need some convincing.
The Rays were held to three runs or fewer in 12 of their final 16 regular-season games. And, somehow, the lineup got much, much worse in the postseason. The Rays hit .115 and scored one run in 24 innings while being swept by the Guardians in the wild-card series.
Were there legitimate explanations? Absolutely. Brandon Lowe was hurt much of the year and went from 39 home runs to eight. Wander Franco had two stints on the injured list and had a slight dip from his stellar rookie season. Josh Lowe was in the opening-day lineup at designated hitter, but spent most of the season at Triple-A. Manuel Margot had his best numbers since coming to Tampa Bay, but was also limited to 336 at-bats because of an injury
So, yes, the potential exists for a better offense in 2023, particularly if Franco, B-Lowe and J-Lowe combine for 1,500 plate appearances.
“We have the talent, 1 through 9, to be a really difficult lineup to face,” said general manager Peter Bendix. “We have a lot of different styles of hitter, we have a lot of contact, a lot of power. We have a lot of team speed, and I think that’s one element that we don’t want to overlook, with just how fast and athletic we are with some of the rule changes that are going to benefit that.”
Basically, this is a question of faith. The Rays have faith Josh Lowe will be better. They have faith Taylor Walls and Vidal Brujan can be more productive than last season. They have faith that Brandon Lowe’s back troubles have been remedied and Franco is not injury-prone. They have faith that Isaac Paredes was just scratching the surface in 2022, that Jose Siri can replicate what Kevin Kiermaier provided in centerfield, and that Arozarena didn’t already plateau at age 27.
Every one of those suppositions has a decent chance of being true, but some will inevitably be wishful thinking. The question is how much better do the Rays need to be offensively considering they have one of the top pitching staffs in baseball?
“We know what the strengths and weaknesses are of all of these guys as well as anyone. Many of them we’ve had for years and years in the organization,” Bendix said. “They knew what they need to do to be successful, our coaches know how to help them get there. It’s a question of execution, right? And we saw signs over the course of last year with Josh Lowe, with some other players, of taking those steps.”
There is one caveat to all of this. While pitchers Zach Eflin and Rule 5 pick Kevin Kelly were the only notable additions to the roster, there is nothing precluding the Rays from acquiring bats in the next five months before the trade deadline. They can open two spots on the 40-man roster by shifting rehabbing pitchers to the 60-day injured list.
Paredes and Harold Ramirez were both acquired during spring training last season and provided a .300 season (Ramirez) with 20 homers (Paredes).
Current payroll obligations are in the $70 million range and president of baseball operations Erik Neander said the front office has the flexibility to add players and salaries if a deal makes sense.
“We have more opportunity afforded to young players that aren’t proven that we probably — if we were to draw it up — would have done,” Neander said. “But that provides them more opportunity to play, to do something with it. And the flexibility we’ll have to give them that and learn as we go. If we need to make moves at any point — there’s no deadline until the end of July so as long as this group is competitive, we’ll continue to be open-minded.”
