ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — So the numbers are practically meaningless. That’s a necessary disclaimer.
Get too caught up in spring training statistics, and you’re bound to be disappointed somewhere down the line. Pitchers are experimenting, hitters are searching for their timing, and managers are juggling lineups to keep everyone happy and healthy.
Keep that in mind when considering the following observation:
Holy moly, the Rays are crushing the ball.
Having passed the midway point of spring, the Rays went into Tuesday’s game with the second-highest scoring offense and the third-most home runs per game of any team in the majors. And this is a team that was below average in scoring last season and virtually punchless in the home run department.
So, is it sustainable in the regular season? Probably not. Especially when you consider about half of their home runs have come from Triple-A players hitting against pitchers who may never see regular-season games in the big leagues this season.
But there are also signs that Tampa Bay’s expectation of bounce-back seasons from a handful of injured or struggling hitters may not be so farfetched. Josh Lowe has been one of the most impressive hitters of the spring, Brandon Lowe was hitting .350 with two homers after Monday, and Wander Franco reached base in seven of his first 11 plate appearances before leaving for the World Baseball Classic.
“I’ve been pretty impressed and optimistic about some of our young guys,” general manager Peter Bendix said. “Josh Lowe is having a really good spring. Yes, his results have been good, but just the way he’s getting there. He’s turning on balls and hitting them to rightfield, hitting them hard and being aggressive. Those are things he’s been working on and to see them show up in games is really exciting.
“Luke Raley has made some minor changes at the plate that allow his power to play, and he’s not swinging and missing as much. Those two guys have looked really good in particular but, really, across the board everybody seems pretty comfortable. Nobody is worrisome right now, and that’s what you’re hoping for. That everybody is in a decent spot.”
This was part of the franchise’s mindset when it unexpectedly failed to bolster the offense in the offseason. The Rays chased a few free agents and had some trade talks, but eventually came around to the idea that the lineup would improve naturally if B-Lowe and Franco were healthy, and Josh Lowe hit the way they expected in 2022. And Raley, in some respects, was viewed as an offseason addition.
Acquired last spring from the Dodgers, Raley spent most of the year at Durham. And the man has been a hitting machine in parts of three seasons at Triple-A, with a .390 on-base percentage and a .544 slugging percentage across 724 plate appearances.
If Raley can provide some left-handed pop while splitting his time between first base, rightfield and designated hitter, the Rays will already be one step ahead of last season. Ditto for Josh Lowe, who hit .221 with two homers after earning a spot in the opening-day lineup.
The tricky part will be the roster crunch because the Rays will already have Randy Arozarena, Jose Siri, Manuel Margot and Harold Ramirez in the outfield, which means they could be a little thin in the infield with both Raley and Lowe on the 26-man roster.
“We’re very, very optimistic,” manager Kevin Cash said. “You’ve got some guys who have come in here and really put together good springs. Luke Raley and Josh Lowe have done a tremendous job. They’re driving the ball, they’re having really, really good at-bats.
“Health is key but our young players have really done a nice job, if we can find ways to slot them in and balance our lineup with a left-handed hitter, I think we’ll be feeling a lot better about (the offense) than we were at the end of last year.”
Even if the hitters perform up to expectations, the Rays are not likely to challenge the Yankees or Blue Jays or Astros in the runs scored department. With their pitching and defense, the Rays just need the offense to be a complement and not a detriment like last season.
The lineup is quick, which bodes well with the new rule changes, and should be much deeper with B-Lowe and Franco doubling their plate appearances.
Tampa Bay was second in MLB in scoring in 2021, although there might have been a fluke quality to that. They fell to 21st last year, which is unacceptable for a team with pennant aspirations.
“I would bet on us being somewhere in between, but I do think the upside to 2021 is there,” Bendix said. “We have as much offensive talent as we’ve had in a long time. Brandon hit 39 homers in 2021, and he’s capable of doing that again. I see where we get a healthy Brandon Lowe hitting 30 homers, you get a healthy Wander Franco and the sky is the limit there … Yandy Diaz had a .400 on-base percentage and he knows what he need to do to hit more home runs. Imagine Yandy with the .400 on-base percentage and maybe 15 or 20 home runs.
“I think our offense could be really good. I wouldn’t bet on us being No. 1 in the American League, or whatever we were a couple of years ago, but we don’t need that. If we’re fourth in the AL in runs this year, we’re going to be doing really well because of our pitching.”
