TAMPA, Fla. — There are no absolutes in the NFL. What is true on Thursday is not necessarily valid come Sunday.
There are always exceptions, anomalies and inexplicable outcomes. So what you’re seeing in the NFL playoffs this weekend should not be viewed as the lone path toward glory.
But it’s certainly worth considering.
Of the eight teams that reached the divisional round, six have quarterbacks 26 or younger. The other two are 27 and 29. And all eight play for the teams that drafted them.
This is directly opposed to recent history when Tom Brady showed up in Tampa Bay and won a Super Bowl at age 43 in 2020 and Matthew Stafford was traded to Los Angeles last season and won a Super Bowl at 33.
Suddenly, owners and general managers were chasing the next great retread. And they spent crazy money along the way. Indianapolis gave Matt Ryan $29 million this year — and benched him after seven weeks. Washington gave Carson Wentz $26 million — and benched him after six weeks.
To acquire Russell Wilson from Seattle, Denver spent two first-round picks, two second-round picks, three players and a contract extension that added up to $296 million over seven years — and the Broncos promptly went 5-12 this season.
Now, again, you should be careful extrapolating too much from a handful of examples.
But with the strong possibility the Bucs will find themselves in the quarterback market again this offseason, it’s good to know the difference between tried-and-true and trendy.
Almost three-quarters of the 56 Super Bowls were won by quarterbacks who were playing with their original teams. (I counted John Elway, who was technically drafted by Baltimore in 1983, but was traded to Denver a couple of weeks later without ever putting on a Colts uniform.)
This isn’t exactly a revelation. Teams often used high draft picks to find franchise quarterbacks and players such as Elway, Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Terry Bradshaw, Troy Aikman, Bob Griese and Ben Roethlisberger went on to win multiple Super Bowls.
The Bucs are one of the rare franchises to have success while sifting through the veteran quarterback aisle. Both of Tampa Bay’s Super Bowls were won by quarterbacks (Brady and Brad Johnson) acquired on the free-agent market.
So, yes, it can be done.
The trick is knowing when you’re close enough to actually contend, and when it makes more sense to look for a long-term solution at quarterback.
And that’s where the Bucs find themselves today.
While Brady might be a physical marvel at 45, his lack of mobility requires a near-impenetrable offensive line. That was not Tampa Bay in 2022, and it won’t likely be in 2023.
Besides having an average age of 25.4, the eight divisional-round quarterbacks are also somewhat nimble. Between them, they averaged 84 rushes for 416 yards with 35 first downs. Brady ran the ball 29 times for minus-1 yard and five first downs.
The yardage gained is not as significant as the added threat of a mobile passer.
A quarterback who can move in the pocket changes the way defenses set up game plans. Because Tampa Bay’s offensive line struggled to protect Brady — the NFL’s Next Gen Stats had his average time to throw at a league-low 2.45 seconds — it limited what the Bucs could do offensively.
Brady rarely left the pocket to buy more time to throw, and consequently he had a higher-than-average rate of short passes. With that in mind, defenses often kept 10 defenders within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage, which made it difficult to find open passing lanes. Not to mention, run the ball.
So does that mean the Bucs need to scour college campuses looking for the next Jalen Hurts? Not necessarily. There is still lots of room in the league for stay-in-the-pocket passers. Brady’s age and lack of speed were just a little farther off the chart than most dropback passers.
The point is more that Tampa Bay should probably avoid the offseason carousel of used quarterbacks. The Derek Carr, Jimmy Garoppolo and Baker Mayfield types. Any one of those guys might be more effective than Kyle Trask or any quarterback the Bucs could find with the No. 19 pick, but it’s hard to see Tampa Bay turning into a Super Bowl contender with the passers available.
It’s true, Tampa Bay’s history of drafting quarterbacks is not terribly inspiring. At least not while they’re wearing Bucs uniforms.
But, if you take a look around the NFL this weekend, it could be worth the investment. If not this April, then soon.
