ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — Somewhere, I am certain, the proper mathematical formula exists to better explain the point of this column. For now, think of it this way:
(Owners + Players)/labor agreement x billions = Rays getting screwed.
It’s not quite the theory of relativity, but the concept should hold up over time because, no matter what the final details, this labor agreement is not likely to be Tampa Bay-friendly.
Why? Well, you’re probably aware that players are angry that their salaries are going down at a time when MLB’s revenues are going up. This is, undeniably, a legitimate complaint.
The players seem certain that the competitive balance tax (which is helpful to teams such as the Rays), revenue sharing (which is practically essential for the Rays) and advanced metrics (which is the reason the Rays have been one of the league’s best teams) are the culprits.
That means any path to labor peace will probably include provisions that will chip away at the very margins that have allowed the Rays to outperform Boston and New York the past few seasons.
For instance, the competitive balance tax has basically morphed into a salary cap that has kept the Yankees and Red Sox from spending like drunken accountants.
Last season, the tax kicked in at a $210 million payroll. Not coincidentally, the Yankees spent $208.4 million and the Red Sox spent $207.6 million. Three other teams were also within 2% of that luxury tax limit, and I’m guessing that’s not a coincidence.
Now, do you suppose the Red Sox and Yankees might have approached the trade deadline a little more aggressively if they weren’t worried about crossing the luxury tax threshold? And would that have had an effect on how the 2021 pennant race played out?
You could certainly argue that payroll is not the determining factor in a team’s success when the Rays have the best record in the American League since 2019 with a payroll that is barely one-third the size of Boston and New York, but that doesn’t mean payroll is irrelevant.
How much farther could the Rays have gone in the 2021 postseason if they had just exercised Charlie Morton’s option? This isn’t a Blake Snell scenario. The Rays did not flip Morton for prospects, they simply decided they could approximate his production at a cheaper price. Meanwhile, the Braves signed Morton for the same salary he was due to make in Tampa Bay and ended up winning the World Series.
So, yes, payroll matters. And if the competitive balance tax threshold is increased — which was the direction negotiations seemed to be heading this week — that just widens the gap between the Rays and two division rivals who happen to be among baseball’s biggest spenders.
Players have also been critical of revenue sharing, suggesting poorer teams are simply pocketing the money with no incentive to improve their roster. In some cases, that’s undoubtedly true.
The Rays, however, appear to need that revenue sharing to remain viable. While MLB stubbornly refuses to open its books, the annual valuations done by Forbes suggests the Rays would have lost money (even while the franchise value has skyrocketed) without revenue sharing in the past decade.
And then there are the on-field complaints in the labor negotiations. Players want to do away with defensive shifting (which the Rays helped pioneer) and the churning of rosters (which the Rays perfected) among other complaints.
Are these bad ideas? Not necessarily. Players have a right to be angry about the impact of the luxury tax on salaries. And baseball fans can probably agree that too many teams seem too blasé about putting a competitive product on the field. And on-field changes are needed to keep baseball from slipping further into a mind-numbing game of strikeouts and home runs.
The problem is, Rays fans may be facing a choice of advocating for changes that are good for the game, while simultaneously making it harder for the hometown team to work its usual magic.
None of this means the Rays are doomed. While defensive shifts and using openers have hogged an outsized share of attention in Tampa Bay, the Rays have been better than most teams because they have been smarter about predicting future performance.
They haven’t been perfect, but the front office has an incredible track record when it comes to finding value in marginal players and knowing the precise moment to move on from veterans.
That won’t change no matter what a new labor agreement might look like. But Tampa Bay’s margin for error could grow even smaller in the future.
