John Fetterman now holds a slim lead over his opponent, Dr Mehmet Oz, in a new poll of likely voters in Pennsylvania’s much-watched Senate race.
But despite his opponent’s gains, most still expect the Democratic lieutenant governor to win his race and flip the Senate seat held by retiring GOP Sen Pat Toomey.
A new poll from The Hill and Emerson College released on Friday found that Mr Fetterman continues to lead his opponent — he has never before trailed Dr Oz in polling from a major firm — but now only holds a two-point advantage over the celebrity TV doctor. The lead is now within the margin of error.
It’s a grim outlook for the candidate who has struggled somewhat to return to the campaign trail at full strength since suffering a stroke earlier this year, but has maintained a dominant social media presence and continues his efforts, when he can, to make appearances in areas thought to be GOP strongholds.
Mr Fetterman is perhaps his party’s best (though far from only) chance at flipping a seat in the US Senate this fall. Throughout the summer he held dominant polling leads over Dr Oz and could see his numbers bounce back if he manages to reinvigorate his campaign in October. As such, he has attracted significant national interest from Democrats eager to break the 50-50 tie in the Senate and potentially inch towards reform of the filibuster, which Mr Fetterman says he supports doing away with entirely.
The Pennsylvania Senate race still remains an advantageous scenario for Democrats in many respects. Polling has consistently shown that Mr Fetterman’s supporters are more passionate about their chosen candidate than are Dr Oz’s, and his Republican candidate has made a number of questionable campaign choices in recent weeks that Democrats have seized on, from shooting a campaign ad at his home in New Jersey to a bizarre video attack ad produced at a grocery store with a name Dr Oz could not pronounce.
Still, the Emerson/Hill poll shows that a course correction for Mr Fetterman’s campaign is likely necessary. According to the data, more likely voters (47 per cent) say that Dr Oz’s recent (or current?) residence in New Jersey is not a factor that will probably affect their vote than those who say it makes them less likely to vote for the Republican (39 per cent). At the same time however, an even higher number (59 per cent) indicated that Dr Oz’s criticism of Mr Fetterman’s ability to do his job after a stroke was falling flat.
There was brighter news in the poll for Democrats regarding the state’s gubernatorial race, a less-watched spectacle that remains significant given the candidacy of Doug Mastriano, a supporter of the false claim that the 2020 election was “stolen” from Donald Trump via largely nonexistent fraud. Josh Shapiro, the Democrat, holds a ten-point lead over Mr Mastriano in the survey.
The poll’s results included responses from 1,000 likely voters in the state of Pennsylvania between 23-26 September. Its margin of error was three percentage points.
