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JOHN Curtice has given his verdict on whether the Scottish Tories could spring an upset and unseat the SNP in an upcoming Westminster by-election.
Voters in Aberdeen South will go to the polls to elect a new MP on June 18 after Stephen Flynn resigned upon being elected to the Scottish Parliament last month.
The SNP minister won the seat in 2024 with 32.8% of the vote. Labour came second on 24.7%, the Tories in third on 24.4%, and Reform UK fourth on 6.9%.
But it is widely held that the biggest challengers for the SNP candidate – former Gordon MP Richard Thomson – are expected to be the Tories.
The party are certainly attempting to make their presence known, with leader Kemi Badenoch making a visit last week to an oil and gas firm in Aberdeen alongside her party’s leader in Scotland, Russell Findlay, and Douglas Lumsden, the MSP and Tory candidate in the seat.
There, she claimed that people in Aberdeen have pleaded with her to “save the city” – as the Tories try to make the by-election about the oil and gas sector which the city relies on.
But is it going to work? The National spoke with Professor John Curtice to hear his thoughts.
“Sure, the Tories are throwing the kitchen sink at this by-election because they think they can do well because of the oil issue,” he said.
“And it's certainly true that of the two by-elections, Aberdeen South is potentially competitive while Arbroath isn't – but it will take a very substantial deviation from the norm because any constituency that the SNP managed to win in 2024, they should be able to defend in principle because their support, if anything, is a wee bit up for Westminster elections than it was in 2024, whereas Labour support is way down.”
The leading pollster did concede that by-elections “sometimes produce unusual results”.
He then added: “But put it like this – the SNP ought to be able to win it. It's for the SNP to lose.
"The Tories did win the seat in 2017, but the Tories are much weaker now than they were in 2017.”
Curtice previously spoke with The National about the row over the past few weeks after the SNP chief executive Peter Murrell pleaded guilty to embezzling over £400k of party funds.
He said then – and his position hasn’t changed – that it likely won't have a huge impact.
The pollster did say that if the Tories manage to harness anti-SNP tactical voting, there is a route to winning. But it also relies on many factors including drawing support from Reform UK rather than leaking it, as has been the case of late.
“It's going to require quite substantial local factors to unseat the SNP. The Tories will be doing very well if they manage it, and there are plenty of obstacles in their way,” Curtice said.
“Reform can still take enough votes off the Tories to leave them scrambling before they even start.”
