JOHN Curtice has given his verdict after Nigel Farage won the Clacton by-election.
The Reform UK leader comfortably won the by-election, which was called after he quit as an MP to force a by-election in protest at scrutiny over donations he received from a crypto billionaire.
The mainstream parties refused to stand candidates which meant satirical candidate Count Binface emerged as Farage’s main challenger.
Farage won with 22,239 votes, with Count Binface on 9455 – making them the only two of a record 34 candidates to keep their deposits.
Curtice, a polling expert and politics professor at the University of Strathclyde, said that “the electoral world has changed in important ways since Nigel Farage precipitated the by-election”.
He told BBC Radio 4's Today Programme: “In the immediate wake of the decision to call this by-election back on July 7, support for Reform did noticeably fall in the national polls, from around just under 27% to about 24%, which is where it still is this morning.
“The political world, the electoral world, has changed in important ways since Nigel Farage precipitated the by-election.
“Primarily, of course, because of the replacement of Keir Starmer by Andy Burnham. Labour have enjoyed a so-called Burnham bounce.
“Labour are currently narrowly ahead of Reform in the polls and, meanwhile, the Conservatives now find themselves four points adrift.”
Curtice added that Farage faces “quite a substantial political challenge” in trying to get Reform support back up so that it is “back in the lead in the polls, and that there is still clear blue water between Reform and the Conservatives”.
Farage secured a majority of 12,784 votes and 62.82% of the vote.
This is up from his 8405 vote majority, 46.2%, when he won at the 2024 General Election. The result was declared shortly after 6am on Friday.
Turnout was 44.37%, down by just over 14%.
