LEXINGTON, Ky. — By dawn’s first light, Churchill Downs was crazy busy last weekend. Kentucky Derby contender after Kentucky Derby contender went to the track for their all-important final major works before the sport’s greatest race this Saturday.
Blue Grass Stakes winner Zandon worked 5 furlongs in 1:00.40 on Friday. Arkansas Derby winner Cyberknife hit the dirt early Saturday and covered 6 furlongs in 1:11.20. Louisiana Derby winner Epicenter worked 5 furlongs in 1:01.21 on Sunday.
Now here’s the question: What does it all mean? When trying to choose a Kentucky Derby winner, how much stock should we put in a colt’s final work? A little? A lot? None at all?
“Quite a bit,” said TVG’s Scott Hazelton, who serves as a paddock host at Keeneland. “Animal Kingdom’s work at Churchill Downs before the Derby made me a believer.”
That was 2011 when the winner of the Grade 3 Spiral Stakes at Turfway worked 6 furlongs in 1:13 at Churchill the week before capturing the Kentucky Derby for trainer Graham Motion and owner Team Valor International.
What does Hazelton look for in a work?
“Ease versus time,” he said. “Epicenter and Zandon are examples this year.”
“I think they’re important in the context of being sure a horse is progressing the right way toward the race,” said Jay Privman, national correspondent for the Daily Racing Form. “Most are, but there are exceptions, including works that are exceptionally good or surprisingly average or worse.”
Brian Zipse, a handicapper for Horse Racing Nation, said while he pays attention to the works, they are not the most important thing.
“The answer for me is a little,” he said. “Certainly the past performances are the most important ingredient in handicapping the Derby, but seeing a horse thriving in the mornings and over the Churchill track is a plus.”
Marty McGee of the Daily Racing Form agreed, saying, “Prior races (i.e., the DRF PPs) are a far more important variable than works. When the (Kentucky) Wildcats look great in practice or warm-ups, does that really mean they’ll be great in their next game? An apt analogy, I’d think.”
Evan Hammonds of the BloodHorse said he does pay attention to the final works, but more as an eye test.
“Actually, quite a bit,” he said. “Not so much for the times, but the way they look. I like to see a horse that appears comfortable, at ease with his surroundings at Churchill Downs. Coat is everything — if a horse doesn’t have a ‘glow’ this week; a certain shine or is dappled out — that’s a contender. A dull coat is a toss to me.”
What about casual race fans? Do they tend to put too much stock in the numbers from those final works?
“I would say they do put too much stock,” handicapper Ed DeRosa said. “Not because there’s not information to glean from it, but horses for the most part are consistent. So if you’re not familiar with the baseline, it’s really tough to hop in Derby week or Breeders’ Cup week and make judgments.
“If they always work great, it doesn’t mean anything if they’re still working great. Similarly, some horses run better in the afternoon than they work in the morning. And if you don’t know that, it’s easy to get fooled. The most important thing, if it’s not something you rely on for the second (race) at Turfway in February, it really shouldn’t be part of your toolbox for the Derby.”
One other thing to remember: This is the Kentucky Derby. The horses here are the best of the best.
“You’re going to see a lot of horses that breeze well and are training well all week,” Zandon trainer Chad Brown said Monday. “It’s truly the cream of the crop here. You’re not going to see too many horses you don’t like watching train. Luckily, Zandon is in that large group of horses that are training good going into the race.”
