There is one playoff spot left in the AFC. Do the Steelers have something more than a Powerball's chance to snag it?
Most would say no. The site fivethirtyeight.com pegs the possibility at 2%.
I would disrespectfully dispute that figure.
Don't get me wrong. The odds stink. The Steelers need a bunch of things to go their way. But here's what I keep coming back to: Not one of those things is especially improbable.
Is all of them happening together mathematically unlikely? Of course. Even my gumball-sized brain comprehends as much. But each taken individually actually seems more likely than not to occur.
This weekend, for example — excluding ramifications of tie games — these three events must transpire to keep the Steelers alive into the last week of the season:
—The Steelers must beat Tyler Huntley
—The Seahawks must beat Mike White (no relation to the famous Post-Gazette sportswriter).
—The Patriots must beat Teddy Bridgewater.
Who could possibly be surprised if three backup quarterbacks lose? I expect all three to do just that (assuming all three play).
As Mike Tomlin likes to say, I can talk myself into anything. So I do give the Steelers a fighting chance, way more than 2%. I believe if they simply go 2-0 and the Dolphins go 0-2, they will sneak in.
Go ahead and laugh. But it was this time last year — a week later, actually — that the Steelers needed to beat the Ravens in Baltimore and the horrific Jacksonville Jaguars needed to score one of the biggest upsets in NFL history, winning as 15.5-point underdogs against the Colts.
The odds of both those events occurring were not much better than what fivethirtyeight.com gives the Steelers right now. The Jags' chance at beating Indy was estimated at 12.4% by the site sportsbettingdime.com. The Steelers also had to beat the Ravens and hope the Raiders and Chargers didn't tie. (No chance!)
We all know what happened. Some of us considered a Jags upset plausible, even though they'd lost eight in a row and were coming off a 50-10 loss to New England.
My reasons for giving them a reasonable chance were rooted in firm logic:
—They had a quarterback (Trevor Lawrence) who could heat up at any time.
—They had outplayed the Colts earlier in the season before losing by six.
—They hadn't lost a home game to Indy since 2014.
—They'd scored an even bigger upset by beating the Bills.
My reasons for giving these Steelers a reasonable chance also are rooted in firm logic. Starting with the fact that the four teams in front of them (Jets, Patriots, Titans, Dolphins) have lost a combined 15 games in a row, and all but one are likely using a backup quarterback (and the other is using Mac Jones).
Let's take a closer look, shall we?
The key number is nine. The Steelers need to get to nine wins, and the Titans, Jets, Patriots and Dolphins all need to not get there. I can't deal with ties here, because we'll lose our minds. The New York Times says that with 32 NFL games remaining, there are literally 4 billion ways the season could end. I don't have space for that, even on the internet.
The Steelers winning out won't be easy, but it won't exactly be the Miracle on Ice, either. It seems likely they'll avoid Lamar Jackson in Baltimore before hosting the embarrassing Cleveland Browns.
Again, let history keep you from scoffing. Crazy stuff happens. Back in 2013, the Steelers had a 9.4% chance to make the playoffs entering Week 17. Basically, they needed 4 billion things to happen, and 3,999,999,999 did. Only Ryan Succop's missed 41-yard field goal kept them out.
Let's finish by looking at the four teams ahead of the Steelers and their chances of getting to nine wins ...
—Titans (7-8). Crumbling faster than Nick Foles. Losers of five straight, down to Malik Willis at QB. Must play Dallas on Thursday, then at Jacksonville. Not getting to nine.
—Patriots (7-8). Losers of four of five, host Miami and visit Buffalo. They'll beat Miami but not Buffalo, which will still be battling for the AFC's top seed. The Patriots aren't getting to nine, but they better beat Miami, or the Steelers will be cooked before kickoff at Baltimore.
—Jets (7-8). Losers of four in a row and five of six, they play two road games — at Seattle and Miami. Must lose to Seattle or it could set up a winner-take-all finale against the Dolphins, where only a Jets-Dolphins tie could keep a 9-8 Steelers team from elimination.
—Dolphins (8-7). They've lost four straight, giving up 114 points, and might have lost Tua Tagovailoa to a third concussion. Bridgewater is a respected backup, but he's 11-19 in his past 30 starts. In his only start this season, he was sacked five times and picked off twice in a loss to the Vikings. The Dolphins also can't run the ball anymore. So while it's quite possible they'll win one of their final two, and thus get to nine, no Fins fan could possibly feel confident. Miami visits Foxborough on Sunday, then hosts the Jets.
And before you say, "They'll definitely beat the Jets," you should probably know this: The Jets, with Zach Wilson at quarterback, beat the Dolphins earlier this season by the following score — 40-17.
Just sayin'.
