PITTSBURGH — You'd think after 86 years of NFL drafts — 86 years of evaluating professional football prospects— that somebody would have begun to figure out quarterbacks by now. It's only the most important position in all of sports.
But nobody has.
I would go so far as to say, based on overwhelming evidence, that nobody knows what the [blank] they're talking about when it comes to quarterback prospects. Which is too bad, seeing as the Steelers are looking for one after nearly two decades of Ben Roethlisberger.
I have to laugh when I read somebody say, with all the assurance of a painter talking paint, "This year's quarterback class won't be nearly as good as next year's."
Really? Tell me more. I'd love to know. Because the very best football brains in the world — people paid quite handsomely to get it right — keep getting it wrong.
The greatest quarterback of all time (Tom Brady) was a sixth-round pick. Maybe the second-greatest (Joe Montana) was a third-round pick. Johnny Unitas was a ninth-round pick who was cut by the team who picked him (a team you might have heard of).
None of those guys was deemed worthy of a first-round pick. You know who was, though, just in the years 2010-2018?
Sam Bradford, Tim Tebow, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder, Brandon Weeden (whom I believe turned 64 right before the draft), EJ Manuel, Blake Bortles, Johnny Manziel, Teddy Bridgewater, Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Jared Goff, Paxton Lynch, Mitchell Trubisky, Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen.
That's who. And I'll even include Mason Rudolph, who got a first-round grade.
You and I could have picked Joe Burrow or Andrew Luck — but a lot of it feels like luck after that. The fundamental issue is this: It's nearly impossible, based on observing a player in college, to determine whether he will be able to see the field, so to speak. Will he be able to process information fast enough and deliver the ball precisely enough against elite NFL athletes?
Nobody knows.
Other positions are easier. At quarterback, for the most part, one simply cannot know until it happens. So it turns out a player such as Russell Wilson, a third-round pick, could do all of the above while the likes of Bortles, Manziel and Rosen could not.
As such, when we're evaluating this year's prospects, from Malik Willis to Kenny Pickett to Desmond Ridder and Matt Corral, it feels like nothing more than a crapshoot.
Back in 2015, Bruce Feldman literally wrote the book on quarterbacks —"The QB: The Making of Modern Quarterbacks" — and described the conundrum this way Thursday on 93.7 The Fan: "College 'open' versus NFL 'open' is not the same. You have to see it fast enough, recognize it and make the throw. NFL 'open' is just not anything like what they're used to in college."
Feldman used Sam Darnold as an example, saying many quarterbacks never adjust to the speed of the NFL game and thus "fizzle and flop."
Few analysts put in more work than Merril Hoge when it comes to evaluating quarterbacks. I respect his work greatly, but he also is proof of the fickle nature of such a pursuit.
As an example, Hoge two years ago had his quarterbacks ranked as such: Burrow, Jacob Eason, Jalen Hurts, Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert.
Of Herbert, who has since become a star, Hoge told troyrecord.com: "His inaccuracy, man, you look at some of his throws and you're like, 'What the ... ?' Herbert is just slow and deliberate with everything he does. ... You can't make a guy instinctive. You can't say, 'Hey, we're going to work on your instincts today.' ... If a guy's not accurate, you're not going to change that. I don't care what anybody tells you."
Well, I don't care what anybody tells me. I have no trust when it comes to quarterbacks. Maybe this year's class isn't that great. Or maybe it is.
Nobody knows.
