Trick or treat? Halloween Sunday features 13 (oooooh, there’s that number) games and most matchups, unfortunately, are tricks. There’s only a handful of treats, but the NFL is like a box of chocolates: you never know what you’re gonna get.
Underdogs went 7-6 against the spread (ATS) in Week 7 after favorites had won back-to-back weeks. Underdogs lead 55-50-2 for the season.
My most confident picks ATS this week are the L.A. Chargers, Indianapolis and Pittsburgh. Stay away from Carolina-Atlanta, San Francisco-Chicago, Washington-Denver and Jacksonville-Seattle, four games the equivalent of getting a box of raisins when you're expecting candy.
SUNDAY NIGHT
GAME OF THE WEEK
DALLAS (5-1) AT MINNESOTA (3-3)
TV: NBC, 8:20 p.m.
Dallas by 1.5; O/U: 55
Both teams enter off a bye, both had walk-off overtime road wins in their last games and both have quarterbacks in Dak Prescott (73.1 completion percentage, 16 TDs) and Kirk Cousins (69.5% and 13) playing some of their best football. The big difference, though: Minnesota has often shown a tendency over the last couple of years of losing these close, down-to-the-wire games, and that’s what this should be between two rested, talented teams. The Vikings’ three losses are by 3, 1 and 7, and two of their wins are by 2 and 6. The Cowboys are the only team undefeated ATS at 6-0, and the way the team has played on both sides of the ball, you should go with them in a prime-time game.
The pick: Dallas
1 P.M. GAMES
CINCINNATI (5-2) AT JETS (1-5)
Cincinnati by 10.5; O/U: 43
This is a big number to lay on the road but considering the Jets have yet to score a point in the first quarter, there’s a good chance the Bengals will be covering early. The Jets (1-5 ATS) are banged up and the Bengals (5-2 ATS) won’t let up after a huge win at Baltimore, knowing the AFC North is one of the most competitive divisions. It’s a good thing the Jets beat the Titans or the 0-17 talk would start this week.
The pick: Cincinnati
MIAMI (1-6) AT BUFFALO (4-2)
Buffalo by 14; O/U: 48.5
Buffalo is off a bye and already beat Miami, 35-0, in Week 2. There’s no doubt the Bills will deal the Dolphins their seventh straight loss — and I may regret what I'm about to say when it's 14-0 Buffalo at 1:30 p.m. — but it’s hard to blow out a division rival twice in a season (unless it’s Pats-Jets, of course).
The pick: Miami
L.A. RAMS (6-1) AT HOUSTON (1-6)
L.A. Rams by 14.5; O/U: 47.5
What will the Rams’ motivation be after a blowout win at the Giants and a harder-than-expected win over the winless Lions the last two weeks? Thing is, it probably doesn’t matter considering the Texans haven’t won since Week 1 and their last two losses were 31-3 and 31-5.
The pick: L.A. Rams
TENNESSEE (5-2) AT INDIANAPOLIS (3-4)
Indianapolis by 1.5; O/U: 51
If you want to back Tennessee after back-to-back impressive home wins over Buffalo and Kansas City, it’s understandable. Let me make the case for Indianapolis instead. The Colts have won three of four since their Week 3 loss (25-16) at Tennessee, and it would’ve been four if not for a MNF meltdown at Baltimore. This is the first of three straight home games for Indy, and with the Jets (TNF) and Jaguars up next, the Colts are looking at 6-4 if they beat their rival first. It won’t be easy, but the Colts had their chances in the first matchup but couldn’t convert in the red zone. At home, Carson Wentz will find a way late in a close, high-scoring game.
The pick: Indianapolis
PITTSBURGH (3-3) AT CLEVELAND (4-3)
Cleveland by 3.5; O/U: 42.5
Pittsburgh is one of my favorite plays of the week. This could be its season, so expect an all-out effort against a division rival that is dealing with injuries. The Steelers, off a bye, have huge motivation after last year’s playoff embarrassment, when the Browns jumped out to a 28-0 first-quarter lead in an eventual 48-37 win. Also, a loss here and they’re 3-4 and (at least) two games behind everyone in the AFC North. They’ve had two weeks to prepare, and its defense should do enough to win a 20-17 type of game.
The pick: Pittsburgh
CAROLINA (3-4) AT ATLANTA (3-3)
Atlanta by 3; O/U: 46.5
Carolina has lost four in a row and Atlanta has won three of four. I’ll take a shot that Matt Rhule finds a way to avoid a five-game skid against a Falcons team whose three wins are against the Giants, Jets and Dolphins (combined 4-16).
The pick: Carolina
SAN FRANCISCO (2-4) AT CHICAGO (3-4)
San Francisco by 4; O/U: 39.5
This is another one I’d rather not pick. Chicago looked so bad last week, so it’ll probably rebound. San Francisco’s four-game skid also includes an 0-4 ATS record.
The pick: Chicago
PHILADELPHIA (2-5) AT DETROIT (0-7)
Philadelphia by 3.5; O/U: 48
Detroit (3-4 ATS) has been competitive in most of its losses, including last week as 16-point ‘dogs against the Rams in a 28-19 loss. Ten losses away from another winless season (imagine if they go 0-17 after already going 0-16?), expect the Lions to be motivated to get that first win or they’ll hear nothing but "0-17" during their bye week.
The pick: Detroit
4 P.M. GAMES
TAMPA BAY (6-1) AT NEW ORLEANS (4-2)
TV: Fox
Tampa Bay by 4.5; O/U: 50
The Saints remain an enigma, so if they play the defending champs close and cover it wouldn’t shock me. Then again, they barely escaped Geno Smith and Seattle on MNF. I’ll take my chances with Tom Brady and the Bucs playing a complete game knowing a win gets them to 7-1 and a big cushion in the division entering their bye.
The pick: Tampa Bay
LOCK OF THE WEEK
NEW ENGLAND (3-4) AT L.A. CHARGERS (4-2)
Los Angeles by 5; O/U: 49.5
There are so many reasons to like the Chargers here. First, the Patriots embarrassed them at home last season, 45-0, and there’s no way the players have forgotten that. Secondly, L.A. is off a bye after a 34-6 no-show loss at Baltimore two weeks ago. I like taking good teams with two weeks to prepare, especially when they’ve had all that time to stew off a bad loss. Lastly, New England is an average team: Its three wins are against the one-win Jets (twice) and one-win Texans, and that was on a last-second field goal. Justin Herbert gets back on track, and Chargers coach Brandon Staley continues his aggressive, go-for-it approach on fourth downs that, if you noticed, has had an effect on how other coaches are calling games lately.
The pick: L.A. Chargers
WASHINGTON (2-5) AT DENVER (3-4)
Denver by 3; O/U: 44.5
When it’s two bad teams, try to find the good (looking ... looking ... oh, got it!): Despite the 24-10 loss, Washington outgained Green Bay last week and was done in by five scoreless trips inside the Packers’ 30.
The pick: Washington
JACKSONVILLE (1-5) AT SEATTLE (2-5)
Seattle by 3.5; O/U: 44
The London Jags snapped a 20-game skid two weeks ago. Back in the states, it’s time to get back to their losing ways.
The pick: Seattle
MONDAY NIGHT
GIANTS (2-5) AT KANSAS CITY (3-4)
Kansas City by 9.5; O/U: 52
If the Giants win, both teams will be 3-5. How wild is that? Kansas City is not a super team this season, and it’s not just the defense. Patrick Mahomes, normally superhuman, has been just human: His nine INTs are tied for the NFL lead. Mahomes exited last week’s 27-3 loss at Tennessee after taking a big hit but he’s good to go. It’s hard to believe KC will fall to 3-5, but don’t expect a blowout here. Big Blue’s defense had its best game last week and could treat this stand alone game as their Super Bowl in a lost season. With Daniel Jones likely getting back his top weapons, this could be a high-scoring contest against a KC defense that has allowed 27 or more points in six of its seven games.
The pick: Giants
