Week 6 brings with it the first four byes of the season: Detroit, Houston, Las Vegas and Tennessee. We welcome picking two fewer games after 80 straight to start the season.
Underdogs went 11-5 against the spread (ATS) last week and are 43-36-1 for the season.
My most confident picks ATS this week are Atlanta, Jacksonville and Buffalo. Stay away from the Monday night game.
GAMES OF THE WEEK
BUFFALO (4-1) AT KANSAS CITY (4-1)
TV: CBS, 4:25 p.m.
Buffalo by 2.5: O/U: 53.5
If you have plans late Sunday afternoon, cancel them. You don’t want to miss this rematch of last year’s playoff thriller, a 42-36 overtime win for Kansas City that spawned a new OT rule after the Bills offense never got a chance. Since 2018, KC is 7-2-1 ATS as an underdog. Nice stat, but I’m going with Josh Allen and the Bills revenge angle. You just saw KC get beat by the deep ball as it fell behind 17-0 to the Raiders on MNF before rallying. Allen, Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis will be too much. On the other side, the key will be Von Miller and the defensive line getting enough pressure on Patrick Mahomes without Buffalo having to blitz. Overtime, anyone?
The pick: Buffalo
DALLAS (4-1) AT PHILADELPHIA (5-0)
TV: NBC, 8:20 p.m.
Philadelphia by 6.5; O/U: 42.5
Another week, another favorable spread for the underdog Cowboys, who in Week 5 beat the Rams as 5.5-point ’dogs. The Eagles were my preseason pick to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, but this column is all about the point spread and Dallas is the play. The rushing duo of Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard can keep the high-powered Eagles offense on the sideline. Cooper Rush is 4-0 as Dallas starter this season and has yet to throw a pick. This game will come down to the two best players on the field: Cowboys linebacker Micah Parsons vs. Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts. Parsons is tied for the NFL lead with six sacks, and Dallas has 20, second-most in the league. Dallas’ pass rush and run game make them a live ’dog.
The pick: Dallas
1 P.M. GAMES
BALTIMORE (3-2) AT GIANTS (4-1)
Baltimore by 6; O/U: 44.5
Big Blue just pulled off arguably the best win of the entire NFL season and they’re catching a TD at home? Brian Daboll is putting on a coaching clinic by getting the most out of his players. No London letdown here. This game has my favorite chess match of the week: Giants defensive coordinator Wink Martindale, formerly of the Ravens, against Lamar Jackson. Will Martindale’s blitzes backfire against the speedy star, or does he have some inside knowledge on how to contain the elusive quarterback? Take the generous spread, as this feels as if it will be decided on a late field goal by either Graham Gano or Justin Tucker.
The pick: Giants
JETS (3-2) AT GREEN BAY (3-2)
Green Bay by 7; O/U: 45.5
The Giants didn’t do the Jets any favors by upsetting the Packers in London. There’s no way Green Bay takes another underdog lightly. Still, is it that far-fetched to think the local teams could go back-to-back against the Pack? Not to me. Aaron Rodgers’ offense isn’t the same without Davante Adams and the Packers can’t stop the run (126.4 yards per game). The week before the Giants’ loss, they needed overtime to beat the Patriots and a third-string QB at home. If the young and hungry Jets feed Michael Carter and Breece Hall, extending drives and keeping Rodgers on the sideline, they’ll be in this game the whole way.
The pick: Jets
MINNESOTA (4-1) AT MIAMI (3-2)
Minnesota by 3.5; O/U: 45.5
A loyal reader pointed out that I have picked Miami every week. It’s becoming more difficult with the quarterback situation but I’m going to make it 6 for 6 because this feels like a spot where the home underdog finds a way. Minnesota was dominated in its lone true road game (24-7 at Philadelphia) and its average margin of victory during its three-game win streak is 4.7 points.
The pick: Miami
NEW ENGLAND (2-3) AT CLEVELAND (2-3)
Cleveland by 2.5; O/U: 43.5
Bill Belichick continues to be resourceful. Belichick’s old team, the Browns? They continue to find new ways to lose every week. Cleveland’s three losses are by a combined six points, and you should just expect every game to go down to the wire. A record 28 games have been decided by three or fewer points over the first five weeks, and Cleveland figures to be involved again. In that case, give me the better-coached team no matter who’s starting at quarterback. Since 2003, Belichick is 34-22-1 ATS as an underdog.
The pick: New England
CINCINNATI (2-3) AT NEW ORLEANS (2-3)
Cincinnati by 1.5; O/U: 43.5
Can Andy Dalton make it three straight seasons beating his old team? He did it with Dallas in 2020 and then Chicago last year, but this will be tougher with the Bengals looking to avoid a 2-4 start. I can’t figure out either team, so here’s hoping Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase recapture some of their LSU magic in the Superdome.
The pick: Cincinnati
TAMPA BAY (3-2) AT PITTSBURGH (1-4)
Tampa Bay by 8.5; O/U: 44.5
The Steelers have lost four in a row (overall and ATS). Kenny Pickett’s first NFL start was a 38-3 shellacking at Buffalo and he won’t be able to move the ball against a Bucs defense that allows 16.6 points per game.
The pick: Tampa Bay
LOCK OF THE WEEK
SAN FRANCISCO (3-2) AT ATLANTA (2-3)
San Francisco by 5.5; O/U: 44.5
The feisty Falcons are 5-0 ATS, the NFL’s lone unbeaten team in that regard. Two of those covers were of the backdoor variety. They’ll play with a chip on their shoulder after last week’s bogus roughing-the-passer call cost them a chance at beating Tampa Bay. The 49ers are dealing with multiple injuries to key defensive players, so this adds up to a grind-it-out 49ers win ... and another Atlanta cover.
The pick: Atlanta
JACKSONVILLE (2-3) AT INDIANAPOLIS (2-2-1)
Indianapolis by 1.5; O/U: 42.5
Jacksonville dominated Indianapolis, 24-0, in Week 2, intercepting Matt Ryan three times and sacking him five times. He’s been sacked 21 times, tied for the NFL lead. After two back-to-Earth losses for the upstart Jaguars, they must feel good about this matchup. The Colts looked awful in last week’s 12-9 TNF win at Denver and are a few plays away from being 0-5.
The pick: Jacksonville
4 P.M. GAMES
CAROLINA (1-4) AT L.A. RAMS (2-3)
Los Angeles by 10; O/U: 41.5
The defending champs are desperate for a “get-right game,” and Carolina appears to fit that bill. It just fired its coach and is starting backup P.J. Walker at quarterback. But that could work in the Panthers’ favor. Sure, the Rams will win, but it won’t be a blowout. The Rams can’t protect Matthew Stafford (tied for NFL-high 21 sacks) and aren’t explosive enough (16 points per game) to lay double digits.
The pick: Carolina
ARIZONA (2-3) AT SEATTLE (2-3)
Arizona by 3; O/U: 50.5
The Cards have alternated losses and wins, so a ‘W’ should be on deck. Ah, if only it were that simple. Kyler Murray & Co. are 2-0 on the road and the Seahawks allow the second-most points (30.8) and most yards (430) per game.
The pick: Arizona
MONDAY NIGHT
DENVER (2-3) AT L.A. CHARGERS (3-2)
Los Angeles by 4.5; O/U: 45.5
Things are so bad in Denver that fans started leaving last week’s game ... at the start of overtime! Eleven days after a pitiful 12-9 loss to the Colts, Russell Wilson and the Broncos are playing a prime-time game yet again (No. 4 on the season). There’s little reason to back the Broncos, which is exactly why I’m going to take the points in the weird and wacky NFL. Plus, all three of the Chargers’ wins were close in the fourth quarter.
The pick: Denver
