Two weeks in and we’re starting to learn more and more. Some teams remain an enigma (hey, Bengals and Saints) while others, so far, are what I’d thought they’d be (Bills, Dolphins, Eagles and Titans). One thing is clear: Parity rules in the NFL. After two weeks, there are only six 2-0 teams. A whopping 19 teams are 1-1, followed by two 0-1-1 teams and five 0-2 teams.
Underdogs went 8-8 against the spread (ATS) for the second week in a row. Something to keep an eye on this week: road favorites. There are eight of them. So far, they’re 7-8 ATS.
My most confident picks ATS are San Francisco, the L.A. Rams and Philadelphia. Stay away from New Orleans-Carolina and be careful with the Monday night rivalry game.
1 P.M. GAMES
GAME OF THE WEEK
BUFFALO (2-0) AT MIAMI (2-0)
Buffalo by 5.5; O/U: 52.5
I’m 2-0 backing Buffalo and 2-0 backing Miami, so what do I do here? The Dolphins are my Super Bowl pick, but this column is all about this week’s point spread. The Bills have outscored the Rams and Titans, 72-17, and Josh Allen is 7-1 against Miami, so if you want to back Buffalo, it’s understandable. Here’s the case for Miami: As last week’s remarkable 42-38 comeback win from 35-14 down at Baltimore showed, this team will never be out of a game with Tua Tagovailoa (franchise record-tying 6 TDs last week) throwing to game-changing receivers Tyreek Hill (11 catches, 190 yards, 2 TDs) and Jaylen Waddle (11/171/2). The Bills’ secondary is dealing with some injuries, so look for Mike McDaniel to exploit that. The forecast calls for high 80s, high humidity, possible rain ... and a down-to-the-wire game.
The pick: Miami
CINCINNATI (0-2) AT JETS (1-1)
Cincinnati by 6; O/U: 45.5
If you approach this game with the mindset that the Bengals, last year’s Super Bowl runner-up, can’t possibly start 0-3, well, you aren’t paying attention. Things change real fast in the NFL (just ask last year’s Bengals). Cincinnati still has Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase, and the Jets needed a miracle in Cleveland. Still, this spread feels a couple points too high and the Jets are a live ‘dog. Burrow has been sacked an NFL-high 13 times. The Jets need this to be The Carl Lawson Game. Mike White upset the Bengals last year at home, and now Joe Flacco gets his shot. The Jets have a stud in rookie receiver Garrett Wilson, who caught the clutch touchdown pass in Cleveland. The 10th overall pick out of Ohio State could make it back-to-back big wins over Ohio teams.
The pick: Jets
BALTIMORE (1-1) AT NEW ENGLAND (1-1)
Baltimore by 2.5; O/U: 44.5
In Week 2, the Patriots rebounded after losing to the Dolphins. In Week 3, expect the Ravens to do the same. Seventeen points was enough for the Pats to beat the Steelers, but that won’t cut it against Lamar Jackson, who last week became the first player in NFL history to have a rushing TD and passing TD of at least 75 yards in the same game.
The pick: Baltimore
KANSAS CITY (2-0) AT INDIANAPOLIS (0-1-1)
Kansas City by 5.5; O/U: 50.5
Imagine being a Colts fan who bought tickets for the home opener expecting a battle between 2-0 teams. Well, at least you’ll get to see Patrick Mahomes! The Colts followed up a 20-20 tie at Houston with a 24-0 dud at Jacksonville. The hosts can keep this close for three quarters in a backs-against-the-wall scenario, but it’ll be too much Mahomes (13-2 in September with 48 TDs to just 3 INTs).
The pick: Kansas City
LAS VEGAS (0-2) AT TENNESSEE (0-2)
Las Vegas by 1.5; O/U: 45.5
One of these playoff teams from last year is staring at an 0-3 start. I felt the Titans were overrated entering this season. The Raiders’ pass rush should be the difference in a close one.
The pick: Las Vegas
PHILADELPHIA (2-0) AT WASHINGTON (1-1)
Philadelphia by 6.5; O/U: 47.5
It’s Jalen Hurts vs. Carson Wentz in a battle of the Eagles’ current future vs. their old future. Sure, this is an NFC East rivalry game, but the Commanders are out of their league against an explosive Eagles offense. I don’t like that this spread has skyrocketed by more than three points, but Philadelphia is still the play as Hurts & Co. build on Monday’s impressive 24-7 win over Minnesota.
The pick: Philadelphia
DETROIT (1-1) AT MINNESOTA (1-1)
Minnesota by 5.5; O/U: 53.5
Their last three meetings have been decided by two points apiece. Detroit, 0-10-1 at the time last season, beat Minnesota. This game isn’t in prime time, so Kirk Cousins should be fine. It will be close, though, as Dan Campbell’s Lions fight every week. It wouldn’t shock me if Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Detroit are driving late with a chance to win.
The pick: Detroit
NEW ORLEANS (1-1) AT CAROLINA (0-2)
New Orleans by 3; O/U: 40.5
The Saints have won five of six in the series and are 3-1 against Matt Rhule. The Carolina coach’s seat gets hotter after he falls to 10-26.
The pick: New Orleans
HOUSTON (0-1-1) AT CHICAGO (1-1)
Chicago by 2.5; O/U: 40.5
The Texans have one loss, one tie and two wins ... against the spread. Lovie Smith has a real shot at winning in his return to Chicago.
The pick: Houston
4 P.M. GAMES
GREEN BAY (1-1) AT TAMPA BAY (2-0)
Tampa Bay by 1.5; O/U: 41.5
Tampa Bay’s first two wins: 19-3 and 20-10. It’ll need to score more this week. Tom Brady’s Bucs dominated Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, 38-10, in Tampa during the 2020 season and then a few months later won at Lambeau in the NFC title game. You think that’s on Rodgers’ mind? This is a toss-up, but I’m going to side with Rodgers. Green Bay’s dual-threat rushing attack should keep the Bucs’ aggressive defense honest, and Brady won’t have Mike Evans (suspension).
The pick: Green Bay
L.A. RAMS (1-1) AT ARIZONA (1-1)
Los Angeles by 3.5; O/U: 48.5
Forget about Arizona’s OT-of-nowhere comeback win in Vegas last week. Focus on this instead: Sean McVay is 10-1 against Arizona, including last year’s 34-11 playoff win. The Cardinals still have a lot of question marks and won’t have any answers against a Rams team that has their number.
The pick: L.A. Rams
JACKSONVILLE (1-1) AT L.A. CHARGERS (1-1)
Los Angeles by 7; O/U: 47.5
Justin Herbert has had an extra few days to heal after hurting his ribs on TNF, but he won’t be 100% recharged. The Bolts also have a knack for playing close games, so Doug Pederson’s first-place (?!) Jaguars should hang around.
The pick: Jacksonville
ATLANTA (0-2) AT SEATTLE (1-1)
Atlanta by 1; O/U: 41.5
Atlanta has scored 26 and 27 points in losses by 1 and 4 points. They’re 2-0 ATS, though, and have some young talent on offense. Seattle hasn’t scored an offensive TD in the last six quarters.
The pick: Atlanta
SUNDAY NIGHT
LOCK OF THE WEEK
SAN FRANCISCO (1-1) AT DENVER (1-1)
San Francisco by 1.5; O/U: 44.5
Not many teams can lose their starting quarterback in Week 2 and then turn to last year’s starter. Jimmy Garoppolo replaces Trey Lance, who replaced Garoppolo. This pick is more about the other offense. The 49ers’ defense, stout at all three levels, knows Russell Wilson well. Yes, he’s 16-4 against the 49ers, but that was mostly with very good Seahawks teams. This Broncos offense is a mess, scoring 16 points each week. Kyle Shanahan runs circles around Nathaniel Hackett, and the 49ers hold Denver to under 20 points again.
The pick: San Francisco
MONDAY NIGHT
DALLAS (1-1) AT GIANTS (2-0)
Giants by 1; O/U: 39.5
This is going to be close. Like pacing-in-the-living-room at 11 p.m. close. The Giants are the surprise 2-0 team after scoring 21-20 and 19-16 wins. Twenty points should get it done this time. Dallas is off an impressive win with backup quarterback Cooper Rush, who is 2-0 filling in for Dak Prescott (one win was last year). Daniel Jones may need to use his legs to beat a solid Dallas defense. The Cowboys have won nine of the last 10 meetings, but Brian Daboll and his Big Blue Collar approach could be the X-factor.
The pick: Giants
