We know too little in Week 1. We think we know too much in Week 2. Making sure you don’t overreact to last week’s results is the key to having success. Don’t be surprised to see teams do complete 180s this week (good to bad, bad to good). It’s the NFL, where unpredictability reigns.
Underdogs went 8-8 against the spread (ATS) last week, with five winning outright and one tying. There are four games right around 10-point spreads, so beware of backdoor covers.
My most confident picks this week are Green Bay, New Orleans and San Francisco. Stay away from Washington-Detroit and be careful with Arizona-Las Vegas.
1 P.M. GAMES
CAROLINA (0-1) AT GIANTS (1-0)
Giants by 1.5; O/U: 43.5
I can’t top last week’s Giants upset pick in Tennessee, but here goes anyway: When Big Blue boards its flight for the Week 5 London game, Brian Daboll’s crew will be ... 4-0. You might say that’s an overreaction, but I say the Giants have some mojo after a gutsy comeback victory. After the Panthers, it’s two more home games against the Dak-less Cowboys and the Bears. Saquon Barkley backed up his big preseason talk with a monster opener (164 yards rushing, TD, 2-point catch) and I expect that to carry over. The Giants held Derrick Henry to 82 yards rushing. If they can contain Christian McCaffrey, especially as a receiver, they’ll go for 2-0 and get it in a close win.
The pick: Giants
JETS (0-1) AT CLEVELAND (1-0)
Cleveland by 6.5; O/U: 39.5
The last time the Browns started 1-0, it was 2004 and Joe Flacco hadn’t even transferred to University of Delaware yet. Flacco is 17-3 against the Browns, but that was with some good Ravens teams. The Jets didn’t look good in Week 1, and its makeshift offensive line against Myles Garrett gives me pause. Still, I’m willing to take a shot with the points. The Jets have talent; they just didn’t execute in Week 1. Expect Mike LaFleur to call a smarter game and the players to make fewer mistakes.
The pick: Jets
NEW ENGLAND (0-1) AT PITTSBURGH (1-0)
New England by 2.5; O/U: 40.5
This line doesn’t make sense. Usually, that means Vegas knows something we don’t. But I’m not so sure this time. Mac Jones is dealing with back pain, and the Patriots’ offense is already limited with Matt Patricia and Joe Judge calling plays. Pittsburgh will miss T.J. Watt, but Mike Tomlin’s team has enough on defense to eke out a win its home opener.
The pick: Pittsburgh
MIAMI (1-0) AT BALTIMORE (1-0)
Baltimore by 3.5; O/U: 44.5
This is an intriguing matchup between teams that had similar Week 1 wins. The Dolphins stunned the Ravens last year on TNF, 22-10, but things will be a lot closer in Baltimore’s home opener. Both defenses played well last week. The Ravens’ secondary is hurting, though, and that’s not good when speedsters Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are in town. This could come down to who has the ball last.
The pick: Miami
TAMPA BAY (1-0) AT NEW ORLEANS (1-0)
Tampa Bay by 2.5; O/U: 44.5
Tom Brady improved to 7-0 against Dallas. Now, can he beat the Saints in the regular season for the first time since joining Tampa Bay? No kidding: The G.O.A.T is 0-4 against New Orleans (though he did beat the Saints in the playoffs on the Bucs’ Super Bowl run). Those four losses were by scores of 34-23, 38-3, 36-27 and 9-0. The Saints have gotten after Brady, always the key to beating him, and with the Bucs’ offensive line shorthanded, they’ll continue to have his number.
The pick: New Orleans
WASHINGTON (1-0) AT DETROIT (0-1)
Detroit by 1.5; O/U: 48.5
This is the first time Detroit has been favored in 25 games! Dan Campbell’s Lions fight to the finish (see: last week’s 38-35 loss to the Eagles). Maybe this week they’ll find a way to win.
The pick: Detroit
INDIANAPOLIS (0-0-1) AT JACKSONVILLE (0-1)
Indianapolis by 3.5; O/U: 44.5
The Colts haven’t won at Jacksonville since the 2014 season. That includes last year’s Week 18 shocking loss that kept Indianapolis out of the playoffs. The hosts will be pumped for Doug Pederson’s home debut. Matt Ryan and the visitors have more talent, but you saw in last week’s 20-20 tie at Houston that doesn’t always translate to easy wins.
The pick: Jacksonville
4 P.M. GAMES
CINCINNATI (0-1) AT DALLAS (0-1)
TV: CBS
Cincinnati by 7.5; O/U: 42.5
This pick feels so obvious, I’m tempted to pull a George Costanza and do “The Opposite.” Dallas doesn’t have Dak Prescott and was the only team not to score a touchdown in Week 1. With their backs against the wall at home, the Cowboys could rally around backup quarterback Cooper Rush. Key word being “could.” In the end, Joe Burrow (4 INTs) and the Bengals bounce back after last week’s sloppy overtime loss to the Steelers.
The pick: Cincinnati
ATLANTA (0-1) AT L.A. RAMS (0-1)
Los Angeles by 10.5; O/U: 45.5
The Rams are 17-7 straight up after a loss under Sean McVay. Throw in extra rest and a little chip on their shoulder after losing 31-10 to the Bills at home in the NFL opener and you get a double-digit win.
The pick: L.A. Rams
ARIZONA (0-1) AT LAS VEGAS (0-1)
Las Vegas by 5.5; O/U: 51.5
Arizona can’t be this bad, right? It lost 44-21 in Week 1 after last year’s no-show in the playoffs. I’m tempted to take the points because it’s the NFL and a team plays well when you least expect it. But the safer play is rolling with Davante Adams and Josh McDaniels in their Vegas home debuts.
The pick: Las Vegas
SEATTLE (1-0) AT SAN FRANCISCO (0-1)
San Francisco by 8.5; O/U: 41.5
Good for Geno Smith and Seattle for beating Russell Wilson. The first-place Seahawks should enjoy it while it lasts. Not only is the “letdown factor” in play for Seattle, but it’s also on a short week and won’t have Jamal Adams. Oh, and San Francisco will be extra-motivated after blowing a 10-point lead at rainy Chicago. Deebo Samuel has a huge game.
The pick: San Francisco
HOUSTON (0-0-1) AT DENVER (0-1)
Denver by 9.5; O/U: 45.5
Russell Wilson losing in his return to Seattle partly because of a questionable coaching decision with the game on the line (sound familiar?) is something right out of a Hollywood script. Nathaniel Hackett looked way over his head. Wilson wins his home debut in Denver, but Houston hangs around long enough.
The pick: Houston
SUNDAY NIGHT
LOCK OF THE WEEK
CHICAGO (1-0) AT GREEN BAY (0-1)
Green Bay by 9.5; O/U: 41.5
Don’t make too much of the Week 1 results: Chicago got a big assist from the weather and Green Bay was hurting at receiver. Aaron Rodgers owns the Bears: 22-5 with 61 TD passes to just 10 INTs. Coach Matt LaFleur is 6-0 against Chicago, with wins by 7, 8, 16, 19, 10 and 15 points. Last year the Packers lost 38-3 in Week 1 and then won seven in a row. To steal a line from Rodgers, R-E-L-A-X.
The pick: Green Bay
MONDAY NIGHT GAMES
TENNESSEE (0-1) AT BUFFALO (1-0)
Buffalo by 9.5; O/U: 48.5
At first glance, this spread seems a tad too high. Then you remember how dominant Buffalo was in the second half of the opener, outscoring the Rams 21-0. Josh Allen and the Bills look as if they can turn it on whenever they want, and now they’re on extra-extra rest (TNF to MNF). The Titans are limited in the passing game and will be overmatched by the Bills’ secondary. Von Miller and the pass rush will have success, too. Tennessee has beaten Buffalo the last two seasons, but this feels different. I believe the Titans are overrated and this could get out of hand in the Bills’ home opener.
The pick: Buffalo
MINNESOTA (1-0) AT PHILADELPHIA (1-0)
Philadelphia by 1.5; O/U: 51.5
On paper, this is the second best game of the week after the TNF matchup in Kansas City. Both offenses looked sharp in Week 1 wins, with the Vikings’ Justin Jefferson (9 catches, 184 yards, 2 TDs) and Eagles’ A.J Brown (10 catches, 155 yards) starring. Whichever team does the best job stopping the No. 1 wideout will have the edge. I trust dual-threat Jalen Hurts more than Kirk Cousins (2-9 on MNF, 10-17 in night games).
The pick: Philadelphia
