It’s Week 18 and there are still more questions than answers. Which playoff-bound teams will rest starters? Which out-of-it teams may still find motivation? Like Week 1, this is a good week to sit it out or just focus on one or two games.
Underdogs went 8-7 against the spread (ATS) last week and are 135-114-6.
My most confident picks ATS are Pittsburgh, Las Vegas and Green Bay. Stay away from many games, especially the ones in which it’s unclear how long starters will play.
SATURDAY'S GAMES
KANSAS CITY (13-3) AT LAS VEGAS (6-10)
TV: ABC, ESPN, 4:30 p.m.
Kansas City by 9.5; O/U: 51.5
Kansas City (6-10 ATS) last week again didn’t cover as a big favorite. It’s playing for the AFC’s 1 seed but too often hasn’t been able to put teams away. The safer play is taking all the points with a Las Vegas team that could be motivated to try and stop a rival’s playoff plans, plus make up for the 30-29 loss at KC in Week 5, a game the Raiders led 17-0.
The pick: Las Vegas
TENNESSEE (7-9) AT JACKSONVILLE (8-8)
TV: ABC, ESPN, 8:15 p.m.
Jacksonville by 6.5; O/U: 39.5
When thinking about the Week 18 schedule, Jacksonville felt like a candidate for my “Lock of the Week.” But considering my best bets are on an 0-8 run, my gut instincts have been tough to stomach. Titans fans have felt queasy too during a six-game losing streak, and the deck is stacked against them without their starting quarterback facing a Jaguars team that has won four in a row, including a 36-22 win at Tennessee. Jacksonville should win this AFC South title bout, but this spread feels too high. Mike Vrabel’s teams have played well as underdogs over the years, and with Joshua Dobbs having extra time to prepare for his second start and Derrick Henry returning, I expect Tennessee to be in it the whole game. Plus, all the pressure is on Jacksonville, which isn’t used to being a big favorite in prime time.
The pick: Tennessee
SUNDAY'S 1 P.M. GAMES
JETS (7-9) AT MIAMI (8-8)
TV: Fox
Miami by 2; O/U: 38.5
Talk about two up-and-down teams. Miami started 3-0, was 3-3, then 8-3 and now 8-8. The Jets were 1-2, 6-3 and now 7-9. Can you believe I’ve picked the Jets every week but once, back in Week 5, a 40-17 win over the Dolphins? Miami was my preseason pick to win the Super Bowl, and like that first matchup with the Jets, it will have to play with its third-string quarterback. This is a toss-up, your-guess-is-as-good-as-mine kind of game, but Miami is playoff-bound with a win and Patriots loss, so there’s that.
The pick: Miami
NEW ENGLAND (8-8) AT BUFFALO (12-3)
Buffalo by 7; O/U: 42.5
The Patriots are in the playoffs with a win, so this feels like too many points. The Bills obviously have had their minds elsewhere this week after Damar Hamlin collapsed on the field Monday night. They’re the much better team and will win, but won't cover.
The pick: New England
BALTIMORE (10-6) AT CINCINNATI (11-4)
Cincinnati by 7; O/U: 40.5
Baltimore won the first matchup, 19-17, in Week 5. That was with Lamar Jackson. The Ravens are averaging 11.8 points per game without him the last five weeks. Cincinnati has gone 9-1 since that first matchup and has a chance to clinch the AFC North with a win.
The pick: Cincinnati
LOCK OF THE WEEK
CLEVELAND (7-9) AT PITTSBURGH (8-8)
Pittsburgh by 2.5; O/U: 40.5
The Steelers are playoff-bound with a win and losses by the Patriots and Dolphins. Doesn’t sound that unlikely, right? The biggest issue might be beating the pesky Browns, a rival that surely will be excited to play spoiler. Cleveland won the first matchup, 29-17, but the Steelers didn’t have T.J. Watt. When he plays, they’re a different team: 7-2 with, 1-6 without. The Steelers have won three in a row, including two three-point comeback wins the last two weeks. Like I wrote the last couple of weeks, until Mike Tomlin officially has his first losing season as Steelers coach, I’m picking Pittsburgh.
The pick: Pittsburgh
TAMPA BAY (8-8) AT ATLANTA (6-10)
Atlanta by 4.5; O/U: 40.5
Tom Brady has never lost to the Falcons (10-0, including 5-0 since joining the Bucs). Tampa Bay is locked in as the 4 seed and will likely rest starters, but if Brady plays a series and throws a TD pass he will have . . . wait for it . . . 28 TDs to 3 INTs all-time against Atlanta. Yes, 28-3. Sorry for the reminder, Falcons fans, but you’ll go into the offseason by finally beating a Brady-led team (even if he’s barely on the field).
The pick: Atlanta
CAROLINA (6-10) AT NEW ORLEANS (7-9)
New Orleans by 3.5; O/U: 41.5
This game could’ve been for the NFC South title had Carolina held on at Tampa Bay last week. Instead, it’s one of three games with no playoff implications. This feels like a three-point game either way, so take the all-important hook.
The pick: Carolina
MINNESOTA (12-4) AT CHICAGO (3-13)
Minnesota by 7.5; O/U: 43
The Vikings are basically locked into the 3 seed, but you’d have to think they want to go into the playoffs off a win after last week’s blowout loss at Green Bay. Justin Fields won’t play for Chicago.
The pick: Minnesota
HOUSTON (2-13-1) AT INDIANAPOLIS (4-11-1)
Indianapolis by 2.5; O/U: 38
These teams played to a 20-20 tie in Week 1. Houston wraps up the No. 1 pick with a loss. Colts interim coach Jeff Saturday won his debut but has lost the next six. A win in his swan song sounds about right.
The pick: Indianapolis
4 P.M. GAMES & LATER
GIANTS (9-6-1) AT PHILADELPHIA (13-3)
TV: CBS
Philadelphia by 14; O/U: 42.5
When the Eagles beat the Giants, 48-22, in Week 14, they probably didn’t think they’d need to win the Week 18 rematch to clinch the division and NFC’s 1 seed. But here we are after Jalen “can you say Most Valuable?” Hurts missed the last two games and the Eagles went 0-2. The Giants are locked in to the 6 seed and considering Brian Daboll is the runaway winner for the NFL’s Smartest Man of the Year Award (I made that one up; still working on the title), if we see Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley on the field for more than one series, let alone at all, it would be a shocker. This is an odd setup but lay the big number and wait for it to be 27-10 as the stadium blares John Mellencamp’s “Hurts So Good.”
The pick: Philadelphia
DALLAS (12-4) AT WASHINGTON (7-8-1)
Dallas by 7; O/U: 40.5
The Commanders are starting rookie quarterback Sam Howell after last week’s loss knocked them out of the playoff conversation. While the Cowboys still have a shot at the NFC East title and 1 seed, anything over a touchdown feels too high. Remember, if the Eagles are up big early against the Giants, the Cowboys could rest starters in the second half.
The pick: Washington
ARIZONA (4-12) AT SAN FRANCISCO (12-4)
San Francisco by 14; O/U: 40.5
The 49ers won the first matchup, 38-10, in Mexico City. This is a huge number, but with Arizona’s uncertainty and inexperience at quarterback, take the NFL’s best defense as it wraps up the NFC’s 2 seed.
The pick: San Francisco
L.A. RAMS (5-11) AT SEATTLE (8-8)
Seattle by 6; O/U: 41.5
Seattle needed a late TD to escape with a 27-23 win at Los Angeles in Week 13. Sean McVay doesn’t strike me as the kind of coach who is just going to lay down as a division rival inches closer to the playoffs (Seattle needs a win and Green Bay loss). This rematch is going down to the wire, too.
The pick: L.A. Rams
L.A. CHARGERS (10-6) AT DENVER (4-12)
Denver by 2.5; O/U: 39.5
The Chargers could go from the 6 to 5 seed and facing the AFC South winner is a more favorable matchup than one of the conference’s Big 3. Still, the question of resting starters is in play, and Denver played inspired football last week in a close loss at Kansas City after firing its coach. No team has been a bigger disappointment than the Broncos this season, and a win in their home finale could be motivation.
The pick: Denver
SUNDAY NIGHT
DETROIT (8-8) AT GREEN BAY (8-8)
TV: NBC, 8:20 p.m.
Green Bay by 4.5; O/U: 49.5
The Packers have won four in a row to earn this prime-time opportunity at a wild-card spot: Beat Detroit and they’re the NFC’s 7 seed with a likely trip to San Francisco on deck. On second thought, maybe Green Bay shouldn’t want to win this game. All jokes aside, the Packers have looked like a serious team the last month. They lost at Detroit, 15-9, in Week 9, a fluky game in which Aaron Rodgers threw two of his three picks at the goal line. Jared Goff doesn’t play well in cold weather, and while Dan Campbell will have his team up for this game, the Lions could be relegated to playing spoiler if the Seahawks win earlier in the day. Rodgers in a must-win spot against the Lions, a team he’s traditionally gotten the best of? We’ve seen this movie before.
The pick: Green Bay
