Week 17 has always been the most difficult to predict. Who’s playing? Who’s resting? Which teams will be motivated to make the playoffs or to play spoiler? But with this being the first 18-week regular season, the penultimate week isn’t as tough to forecast. Still, this card has a lot of toss-ups and a few big spreads, so it’s far from easy.
Underdogs went 7-9 against the spread (ATS) last week and their lead has shrunk to 119-118-2.
My most confident picks ATS are big favorites in Buffalo, Tampa Bay and New England, but I also like a lot of underdogs, headlined by Arizona, Baltimore and Denver. Stay away from Carolina-New Orleans.
1 P.M. GAMES
GAME OF THE WEEK
KANSAS CITY (11-4) AT CINCINNATI (9-6)
Kansas City by 5.5; O/U: 51
Remember when Kansas City was a complete stay-away team? It barely covered and looked lost. Update: It got its groove back. Kansas City has won eight in a row, including six straight covers. KC’s defense is allowing just 12.9 points per game during the streak, and in five of those games it held opponents to 10 or fewer points. Joe Burrow isn’t throwing 500-plus yards against this defense. The Bengals are 4-0 against the Ravens and Steelers but they’ve been inconsistent outside the division. While a three-point finish could happen, the safer play is to ride with Patrick Mahomes and a Kansas City team that no longer looks "unbettable" but instead unbeatable.
The pick: Kansas City
GIANTS (4-11) AT CHICAGO (5-10)
Chicago by 5.5; O/U: 37.5
The Giants own the Bears’ first-round pick, so a tie would feel like a win. Big Blue can’t score (10, 13, 9, 21, 6 and 10 points over the last six), but the Bears aren’t good enough to be touchdown favorites. They’re 2-8 in their last 10 games, with the two wins by a combined three points. Mike Glennon covers against his old team.
The pick: Giants
TAMPA BAY (11-4) AT JETS (4-11)
Tampa Bay by 13; O/U: 45.5
Tom Brady is 29-7 all time against the Jets, and there’s no reason to think this game will be competitive. Yes, the Bucs are missing key playmakers, but that was the case last week and they won, 32-6, at Carolina. Tampa Bay still has a chance at the NFC’s 1 seed, so Brady won’t let up — just like old times. Zach Wilson won’t do much against former Jets coach Todd Bowles’ defense.
The pick: Tampa Bay
LOCK OF THE WEEK
ATLANTA (7-8) AT BUFFALO (9-6)
Buffalo by 14.5; O/U: 44
Buffalo won’t have a letdown after winning at New England because it knows it will be AFC East champion if it wins out. Josh Allen and the Bills have been able to cover big spreads all season, especially at home. Plus, all nine of Buffalo’s wins have been by double digits: 35, 22, 40, 18, 15, 28, 25, 17 and 12.
The pick: Buffalo
JACKSONVILLE (2-13) AT NEW ENGLAND (9-6)
New England by 16.5; O/U: 41.5
The Jaguars are on to 2022. They’ve already started the coaching search and are the epitome of a team playing out the string. The Patriots will get back on track after back-to-back losses dropped them out of first place. This is a huge number, but the Pats have had six wins that would’ve covered this line: 25-6, 54-13, 24-6, 45-7, 25-0 and 36-13.
The pick: New England
MIAMI (8-7) AT TENNESSEE (10-5)
Tennessee by 3.5; O/U: 39.5
This is an intriguing matchup as Ryan Tannehill welcomes his old team, which has won seven in a row after a 1-7 start. This will be Miami’s toughest test yet, but I think it’ll be up for it because of its blitz-happy defense that will benefit from not having to worry about Derrick Henry. A hard-fought 20-17 Titans win like last Thursday night against the 49ers feels like it could happen again, so reel in the three points and the all-important hook (.5) with the Fish.
The pick: Miami
L.A. RAMS (11-4) AT BALTIMORE (8-7)
L.A. by 4.5; O/U: 46.5
The Rams have won four in a row to take over first place in the NFC West. The Ravens have lost four in a row to drop out of first place. Baltimore should be getting Lamar Jackson back, though, and in a desperate spot at home, expect the Ravens to find a way to either win or lose a close one like their three games before last week (20-19, 24-22, 31-30).
The pick: Baltimore
LAS VEGAS (8-7) AT INDIANAPOLIS (9-6)
Indianapolis by 7; O/U: 44.5
The uncertainty surrounding Carson Wentz (COVID-19 list) makes this a tough one to pick. The Colts are riding high after back-to-back impressive wins over the Patriots and Cardinals and may still have enough to beat the Raiders without Wentz. But with Las Vegas needing the game to stay in the wild-card hunt, the line is a few points too high.
The pick: Las Vegas
PHILADELPHIA (8-7) AT WASHINGTON (6-9)
Philadelphia by 3.5; O/U: 45
It’s hard enough to beat a team twice in one season, let alone 12 days. That’s what the Eagles will try to do against their NFC East rival. Philly is fighting for a playoff spot but it won’t be easy. Washington will be motivated by pride after a 56-14 prime-time embarrassment at Dallas.
The pick: Washington
4 P.M. GAMES
ARIZONA (10-5) AT DALLAS (11-4)
Dallas by 6; O/U: 51.5
This pick is about line movement. The lookahead number was Dallas -2.5 but now it’s nearly triple that after the Cowboys’ 56-14 win on SNF coupled with the Cardinals’ third straight loss. Despite how lost Arizona has looked, this is great line value and it’s hard not to take the points. Kyler Murray led a 38-10 win at Dallas on MNF last season (Dak Prescott didn’t play), so maybe a trip to Jerry’s World is what the Cards need. They're too talented to continue this slide. This is close.
The pick: Arizona
HOUSTON (4-11) AT SAN FRANCISCO (8-7)
San Francisco by 12.5; O/U: 44
Houston’s stunning 41-29 win over the Chargers last week gave the Texans back-to-back wins for the first time all year. They won’t make it three in a row, but with Jimmy Garoppolo likely out with an injury, they can cover.
The pick: Houston
DENVER (7-8) AT L.A. CHARGERS (8-7)
L.A. by 6.5; O/U: 46
Denver won the first meeting, 28-13, as its defense dominated. The Chargers should get even but considering how they never make things easy for themselves, the number feels a tad high for a division rivalry.
The pick: Denver
CAROLINA (5-10) AT NEW ORLEANS (7-8)
New Orleans by 6.5; O/U: 38.5
The Panthers won the first meeting, 26-7, in Week 2, part of a 3-0 start. They’re 2-10 since. The Saints will have a bunch of players back from the COVID-19 list, including Taysom Hill.
The pick: New Orleans
DETROIT (2-12-1) AT SEATTLE (5-10)
Seattle by 7; O/U: 42.5
If playoff spots were awarded by ATS records, Detroit would be in. Last week’s cover at Atlanta upped its record to 9-6. Seattle showed in a 25-24 home loss to Chicago that it can’t be trusted as a big favorite.
The pick: Detroit
SUNDAY NIGHT
MINNESOTA (7-8) AT GREEN BAY (12-3)
TV: NBC, 8:20 p.m.
Green Bay by 7; O/U: 46.5
Minnesota "needs the game more" as it’s fighting for a wild-card spot, but Green Bay needs to win to hold on to the NFC’s top spot. The Vikings won the first meeting, a 34-31 last-second win in Week 11 and this should be close, too. The Packers are 7-0 at home but last week’s 24-22 win over the Browns was its first non-cover. Kirk Cousins & Co. could produce a similar scenario.
The pick: Minnesota
MONDAY NIGHT
CLEVELAND (7-8) AT PITTSBURGH (7-7-1)
TV: ESPN, 8:15 p.m.
Cleveland by 3.5; O/U: 41
In what is likely Ben Roethlisberger’s final game in Pittsburgh, all the numbers say to back Big Ben and the home underdog Steelers: They’re 3-0 straight up (SU) in that spot this season, 7-0 ATS since the start of 2018, 13-3-2 ATS under Mike Tomlin and Roethlisberger is 10-2 SU and ATS. My gut is telling me something different, though: Baker Mayfield and the Browns, who had a shot at winning at Green Bay last week, are getting healthier and will show up like they did in last year’s 48-37 wild-card win at Pittsburgh.
The pick: Cleveland
