There were times it felt as if 2020 would never end, but as we approach the new year, one thing that always goes by fast is the NFL season. Weren’t we just talking about whether there would even be a season? Now it’s the penultimate week, with playoff races heating up. With some teams already thinking about their vacation plans, this is a good week to lock in on teams motivated and those out of it.
Favorites went 6-9-1 ATS last week and are 99-113-7 for the season. Home teams went 7-9 straight up and 7-8-1 ATS, bringing their totals to 109-114-1 and 104-113-7.
My three most confident picks are Indianapolis, Washington and Miami (I also like Arizona and Tampa Bay on Saturday, with all three favorites having favorable matchups). Stay away from Cincinnati-Houston.
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SATURDAY’S GAMES
TAMPA BAY (9-5) AT DETROIT (5-9)
Tampa Bay by 9.5; O/U: 54
Detroit has given up 40 or more points four times, and this feels as if it could be a fifth. Tom Brady and the Bucs have the playoffs in their sights and will come out firing after last week’s slow start in Atlanta.
The pick: Tampa Bay
SAN FRANCISCO (5-9) AT ARIZONA (8-6)
Arizona by 5; O/U: 48.5
Is this San Francisco at Arizona or Arizona at San Francisco? It’s now both teams’ home stadium. What a confusing season. The Cards beat the 49ers in Week 1, and with Arizona fighting for a playoff spot and the defending NFC champs out of it, expect Kyler Murray to lead a clean sweep. San Fran, favored last week at Dallas (41-33 loss), is still getting too much respect. This spread should be a couple of points higher.
The pick: Arizona
MIAMI (9-5) AT LAS VEGAS (7-7)
Miami by 3; O/U: 47.5
Jon Gruden must have loved the Dolphins’ grind-it-out win over the Patriots. Now he will see it up close as Miami, fighting for a playoff spot, wears out a bad defense. Las Vegas would be on a five-game skid if not for that last-second win vs. the Jets.
The pick: Miami
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SUNDAY’S 1 P.M. GAMES
LOCK OF THE WEEK
INDIANAPOLIS (10-4) AT PITTSBURGH (11-3)
Indianapolis by 1.5; O/U: 44.5
We went from talking about whether Pittsburgh would lose a single game to now discussing if it will win one the rest of the season. After the Colts, it’s the Browns and then a tough wild-card matchup. From 11-0 to 11-3 after a shocking loss to Cincinnati on MNF, don’t talk yourself into taking Pittsburgh just because you think it must be better than the last three weeks. The Steelers have issues, and the eye test tells you to fade them. Indy is well balanced and simply the better team. The Colts win, take over the AFC South lead and put pressure on Tennessee to win Sunday night.
The pick: Indianapolis
GIANTS (5-9) AT BALTIMORE (9-5)
Baltimore by 10.5; O/U: 44
It feels as if the Giants’ win at Seattle was eons ago, doesn’t it? Now they’re on the outside looking in and it’s hard to envision them hanging with the resurgent Ravens (87 points the last two weeks). The defense can keep this respectable, but you can’t back a Giants offense that has scored seven and six points the last two games.
The pick: Baltimore
ATLANTA (4-10) AT KANSAS CITY (13-1)
Kansas City by 10.5; O/U: 53.5
The Falcons were reminded of their infamous 28-3 blown lead in the Super Bowl when Tom Brady rallied past them again. Now they face a team that earlier this year won the Super Bowl after trailing 20-10 late. Patrick Mahomes and the champs continue their run of good fortune and clinch the 1 seed.
The pick: Kansas City
CLEVELAND (10-4) AT JETS (1-13)
Cleveland by 9.5; O/U: 47
Gotta admit, writing a ‘1’ and not a ‘0’ in the Jets’ record felt strange. No “next 0-16 team vs. the last 0-16 team” storyline now. The Browns are a pushover no more and should register their second straight double-digit win at MetLife Stadium. Jets players treated last week’s win as if they won the Super Bowl. They got their win. They’re happy. Expect them to be flat.
The pick: Cleveland
CHICAGO (7-7) AT JACKSONVILLE (1-13)
Chicago by 7.5; O/U: 47
The look-ahead line was CHI -3.5. Now it’s more than doubled. That is a red flag. If you don’t think the Jags could win, you probably said the same thing about the Jets. The Jags will tease Jets fans for a while.
The pick: Jacksonville
CINCINNATI (3-10-1) AT HOUSTON (4-10)
Houston by 7.5; O/U: 46
Why is a four-win team laying over a TD with no home-field edge?
The pick: Cincinnati
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4 P.M. GAMES
GAME OF THE WEEK
L.A. RAMS (9-5) AT SEATTLE (10-4)
Seattle by 1.5; O/U: 47.5
The Rams just lost to the 0-13 Jets, so there’s no way you should take them against 10-win Seattle, right? Wrong. That’s exactly why you should back them. If their motivation level was at an all-time low last week, expect it to be at an all-time high after that embarrassing loss. They’re also playing for the NFC West title: A win gives them the head-to-head tiebreaker. Under Sean McVay, L.A. is 5-2 vs. Seattle, including a 23-16 win in Week 10. McVay, Jared Goff and Aaron Donald get a big win to remind the rest of the NFC that last week was a fluke.
The pick: Los Angeles
CAROLINA (4-10) AT WASHINGTON (6-8)
Washington by 1; O/U: 42
If Ron Rivera’s new team beats Ron Rivera’s old team, it all but wraps up the NFC East title. Dwayne Haskins’ on-field, off-field issues give me pause, but Washington’s ‘D’ will make it a long day for Teddy Bridgewater as the team gets back on track after last week’s loss to Seattle. Remember, it had won four in a row led by a lights-out defense.
The pick: Washington
PHILADELPHIA (4-9-1) AT DALLAS (5-9)
Philadelphia by 2.5; O/U: 49 (Ch. 5)
Who knows what to expect from these underachievers? It’s Jalen Hurts’ first taste of the rivalry, so maybe that could be the difference.
The pick: Philadelphia
DENVER (5-9) AT L.A. CHARGERS (5-9)
Los Angeles by 3; O/U: 49
If there’s one stat to best describe the wild 2020 season, it’s this: All four of the Chargers’ division games have come down to the final play. That includes a 31-30 loss at Denver in Week 8. L.A. has a little mojo after back-to-back last-second wins and maybe, just maybe, it can wrap this up on the second-to-last-play of the game.
The pick: Los Angeles
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SUNDAY NIGHT
TENNESSEE (10-4) AT GREEN BAY (11-3)
GB by 3.5; O/U: 55.5
Tennessee won’t be able to contain Aaron Rodgers. Green Bay will struggle to corral Derrick Henry. In a matchup of last year’s conference championship runners-up, take the points in what should be a fun one.
The pick: Tennessee
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MONDAY NIGHT
BUFFALO (11-3) AT NEW ENGLAND (6-8)
Buffalo by 7; O/U: 46
Buffalo looks as if it’s the only team that could stand in Kansas City’s way in the AFC. The Pats are out of it. Finishing 8-8 mean won’t mean much to a perennial playoff team.
The pick: Buffalo
