NFL games are hard enough to pick. Add the uncertainty surrounding COVID-19 outbreaks and it’s nearly impossible. Last week’s lead-up felt like a roller-coaster that had no off switch. There are still a few games impacted by COVID-19 this week. Many games have big playoff implications. There are several double-digit spreads, so be careful.
Underdogs went 7-9 against the spread (ATS) last week. Favorites have been heating up but underdogs still have the season lead at 112-109-2.
My most confident picks ATS are Las Vegas, Detroit and New England. My favorite pick of the week was Tennessee +3.5 on TNF. Stay away from Tampa Bay-Carolina and Chicago-Seattle.
GAME OF THE WEEK
BUFFALO (8-6) AT NEW ENGLAND (9-5)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
New England by 2; O/U: 43.5
When these teams met just three weeks ago on a windy Monday night in Buffalo, I was confident the Patriots would win. Had I known going in that Mac Jones would attempt just three passes, it would’ve been a different story. The fact that the Pats ran all over the Bills when they knew what was coming makes me think they’ll complete the season sweep at home with a full playbook. From a betting angle, I like that New England is off a loss and it had its winning streak snapped. It makes the team even more focused, and with first place in the AFC East on the line, the smart play is to back the home team. The only elite team Buffalo has beaten all season was Kansas City, and that was way back in Week 5 when KC had a rough start.
The pick: New England
SATURDAY’S GAMES
CLEVELAND (7-7) AT GREEN BAY (11-3)
TV: NFL, Fox, 4:30 p.m.
Green Bay by 7.5; O/U: 45.5
The Packers are the easy pick here. They’re 6-0 at home and 6-0 ATS. They’ll win to remain the NFC’s 1 seed but covering isn’t a sure thing. The Browns should be getting back their coach and starting quarterback and are desperate to stay in the playoff hunt. With Green Bay dealing with some offensive line injuries, the Browns could keep this closer than most think.
The pick: Cleveland
INDIANAPOLIS (8-6) AT ARIZONA (10-4)
TV: NFL, 8:15 p.m.
Arizona by 1.5; O/U: 48.5
The Colts are off an impressive win over the Patriots and the Cardinals just got blown out at Detroit. If you can’t back Arizona after that, it’s understandable. But this is the NFL, and things change faster than it takes Kyler Murray to elude a tackler and pick up a first down. The fact that the Cardinals have lost two in a row and could lose the division lead makes me want to pick them even more. This is a huge spot at home, on Christmas night in front of a national TV audience. Indianapolis is a dangerous team, but I’m going with the same strategy that worked in my Rams-over-Cardinals MNF pick from two weeks ago: Trust your gut instinct. Arizona finds a way to win a close, exciting game.
The pick: Arizona
SUNDAY’S 1 P.M. GAMES
GIANTS (4-10) AT PHILADELPHIA (7-7)
Philadelphia by 10; O/U: 40.5
The Giants won the first meeting, 13-7, four weeks ago, but it’s hard to see the defense duplicating that on the road. The Eagles have a shot at a wild card and the Giants’ season has long been over. This is a big number for a rivalry game but use the same logic as last week’s Giants-Cowboys game and lay the points against an undermanned and overmatched offense.
The pick: Philadelphia
JACKSONVILLE (2-12) AT JETS (3-11)
Jets by 1; O/U: 41.5
The last time the Jets were favored, Joe Namath was the quarterback. I kid, I kid. It’s been 27 games ... and now counting? The line tilted in Jacksonville’s favor after the Jets’ COVID-19 outbreak ... until the Jets went back out in front and are favored again. Trevor Lawrence vs. Zach Wilson, the first two selections in the draft, doesn’t pack a 1-2 punch and I wish I could not pick this game. If Jacksonville couldn’t beat Houston at home last week after Urban Meyer was dismissed, I’m not sure anything can light a fire under this team.
The pick: Jets
L.A. RAMS (10-4) AT MINNESOTA (7-7)
L.A. Rams by 3.5; O/U: 48.5
This is the toughest game to pick. The Rams have righted the ship with three straight wins after a three-game skid. Minnesota is still in the wild-card hunt after winning its last two. The Vikings are always involved in down-to-the-wire games and this feels like another one. In that spot, take the points. Also, here’s a weird stat that’s hard to ignore: Every team that has won on MNF this season has not lost the following week (12 wins plus Pittsburgh tied and New England had a bye). Can the Vikings extend the streak?
The pick: Minnesota
BALTIMORE (8-6) AT CINCINNATI (8-6)
Cincinnati by 3.5; O/U: 45.5
This one has huge playoff implications, as the winner takes sole possession of first in the AFC North. Cincinnati won the first meeting, 41-17, in Week 7. Baltimore has lost three in a row by total of 4 points (1, 2 and 1). That’s almost hard to believe. Expect another close one. Joe Burrow and the young Bengals have already swept the Steelers and doing the same to the Ravens will be a huge statement, so I expect the hosts to be beyond motivated.
The pick: Cincinnati
TAMPA BAY (10-4) AT CAROLINA (5-9)
Tampa Bay by 10; O/U: 43
The Panthers have lost four in a row and the offense is a mess, but the Bucs have lost multiple playmakers to injuries. The number feels too high. Maybe the Panthers will treat this like their Super Bowl against the defending champs.
The pick: Carolina
L.A. CHARGERS (8-6) AT HOUSTON (3-11)
L.A. by 10; O/U: 45.5
This is one of those "just take the much better team and hope they take care of business" picks. This is a big mismatch in talent.
The pick: L.A. Chargers
DETROIT (2-11-1) AT ATLANTA (6-8)
Atlanta by 6; O/U: 42.5
My early-season strategy was to pick against Detroit every week. Then I had to change course when the Lions showed some fight, losing twice on last-second field goals and proving to be a team that consistently covers (8-6 overall, 5-1 in the last six). After an 0-10-1 start, Detroit has won two of three (home wins over Minnesota and Arizona). Can it check off "first road win" on its Christmas shopping list? Maybe. But I like them to cover a lot. They continue to fight for Dan Campbell, and this is a lot of points to lay with a now-out-of-it Falcons team.
The pick: Detroit
4 P.M. GAMES
PITTSBURGH (7-6-1) AT KANSAS CITY (10-4)
Kansas City by 7.5; O/U: 45
Kansas City has won seven in a row and covered in the last five. I was going to pick them no matter the line but the team’s COVID-19 issues change things. Plus, Pittsburgh is like that family member that overstays its welcome at the holidays and keeps hanging around. The Steelers are desperate and should keep this close.
The pick: Pittsburgh
LOCK OF THE WEEK
DENVER (7-7) AT LAS VEGAS (7-7)
Las Vegas by 1; O/U: 41.5
When these teams met in Week 6, it was a few days after Jon Gruden resigned. The Raiders weren’t distracted, though, and won 34-24 at Denver. Las Vegas had lost five of six before Monday’s last-second victory at Cleveland. That kind of win could carry over, especially at home against a division rival. The Broncos have to start backup quarterback Drew Lock, another reason to like the hosts.
The pick: Las Vegas
CHICAGO (4-10) AT SEATTLE (5-9)
Seattle by 6.5; O/U: 43.5
Seattle’s loss on Tuesday ended its already long shot at a wild card. This figures to be a low-scoring game, so the point spread should come into play.
The pick: Chicago
SUNDAY NIGHT
WASHINGTON (6-8) AT DALLAS (10-4)
TV: NBC, 8:20 p.m.
Dallas by 10; O/U: 47
Part of me wants to take all those points in a rivalry game. The other part says lay the big number with the team that has something to play for. Dallas won at Washington, 27-20, just two weeks ago and it wasn’t even that close.
The pick: Dallas
MONDAY NIGHT
MIAMI (7-7) AT NEW ORLEANS (7-7)
TV: ESPN, 8:15 p.m.
Miami by 3; O/U: 36.5
Both teams are in the wild-card hunt. Miami has won six in a row, and I was going to pick against them but that changed when COVID-19 sidelined New Orleans’ top two quarterbacks.
The pick: Miami
