From the Browns’ big win at Tennessee to the Giants’ stunner in Seattle to Washington’s perfection-ending upset in Pittsburgh, Week 13 kept outdoing itself for “Best Win Of The Year.” With the NFL never taking a week off for unpredictable outcomes, expect more surprises. A whopping 10 teams are home underdogs, so bettors beware.
Favorites went 7-7 ATS (one pick ’em) last week and are 84-97-6 for the season. Home teams went 5-10 straight-up and 4-10 ATS, bringing their totals to 96-95-1 and 87-98-6.
My three most confident picks this week are Tampa Bay, New Orleans and the Giants. Avoid the Atlanta-L.A. Chargers game.
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1 P.M. GAMES
ARIZONA (6-6) AT GIANTS (5-7)
Arizona by 2.5; O/U: 45
If I had known Leonard Williams was going to do his best Lawrence Taylor impersonation last week, I wouldn’t have laid the 10 points with Seattle. What an inspiring performance by the Giants defense, which held the Seahawks to 10 offensive points, a whopping 21 under their season average. It’s important not to overreact from one game, but something special is going on with this Big Blue True Grit Defense, and why wouldn’t I back them against a not-100% Kyler Murray and a Cardinals team reeling with three straight losses? Even if Colt McCoy plays again instead of Daniel Jones, I like the Giants to grind out another low-scoring win, something like 20-17, to win their fifth in a row and stay in first place.
The pick: Giants
KANSAS CITY (11-1) AT MIAMI (8-4)
Kansas City by 7.5; O/U: 50.5
Kansas City can beat anyone by double digits, but Miami has a solid defense and really, who doesn’t want to beat the champs? KC’s last four wins: 2, 4, 3 and 6 points. This one will be close, too.
The pick: Miami
LOCK OF THE WEEK
MINNESOTA (6-6) AT TAMPA BAY (7-5)
Tampa Bay by 6.5; O/U: 52.5
When picking a lock, you’re hoping for one game to jump out at you. This is that game. I love the Bucs to bounce back after having a week to regroup from back-to-back 27-24 home losses to the L.A. Rams and KC. Tom Brady is 14-4 after the bye week and should light up a Vikings ‘D’ that has given up 27 or more points eight times. Minnesota just needed OT to beat one-win Jacksonville and two weeks before that lost at home to Dallas when it was 2-7. Tampa Bay rolls by 14-plus.
The pick: Tampa Bay
HOUSTON (4-8) AT CHICAGO (5-7)
Houston by 1; O/U: 45
The Bears have lost six straight and Matt Nagy’s seat is hotter than Joe Pesci’s head in “Home Alone.” Deshaun Watson and Houston keep fighting and were in position to beat Indy before a late fumble.
The pick: Houston
TENNESSEE (8-4) AT JACKSONVILLE (1-11)
Tennessee by 7.5; O/U: 52.5
Jacksonville’s 11-game skid began in Week 2 (33-30 at Tennessee). With the exception of a blowout defeat to Pittsburgh, Jacksonville’s other four losses since its bye week have been by 2, 4, 2 and 3 points.
The pick: Jacksonville
DENVER (4-8) AT CAROLINA (4-8)
Line: OFF (likely Carolina by 4)
Carolina has played really hard for first-year coach Matt Rhule. The Panthers are off a bye, and I think that will show against a Broncos team that played Sunday night and went all-out in a failed upset bid at Kansas City.
The pick: Carolina
DALLAS (3-9) AT CINCINNATI (2-9-1)
Dallas by 3.5; O/U: 42.5
As bad as Dallas has looked, it’s hard to take a Bengals team that has scored 17 offensive points the last two games without Joe Burrow. Andy Dalton played his best in 1 p.m. games at Cincinnati (hey, I’m looking for any edge I can find here in this unwatchable game).
The pick: Dallas
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4 P.M. GAMES
JETS (0-12) AT SEATTLE (8-4)
Seattle by 13.5; O/U: 47
Seattle’s back-to-back home games with the Giants and Jets are the perfect example of why the NFL is a week-to-week league and why you should have a short memory. Russell Wilson & Co. were overwhelmed by a resurgent Giants ‘D’ but they’ll fly by the Jets. And then there’s the Jamal Adams angle. From “cover zero” to zero cover, the Jets have no shot of staying inside the number.
The pick: Seattle
NEW ORLEANS (10-2) AT PHILADELPHIA (3-8-1)
NO by 7; O/U: 43
If you looked up the definition of insanity, you’d see my picks for the Eagles’ last two games. Even after swearing them off, I talked myself into it and it obviously didn’t work out. Which is the same that could be said for the Eagles’ season. New Orleans has won nine in a row and its ‘D’ — led by Cam Jordan (6.5 sacks) and Trey Hendrickson (10.5) — should give Jalen Hurts fits.
The pick: New Orleans
GREEN BAY (9-3) AT DETROIT (5-7)
Green Bay by 7.5; O/U: 55
Aaron Rodgers should help decide who the next Lions coach is — he does own the team, after all. He’s 16-5 vs. Detroit, including a 42-21 win in Week 2. Still, this is too many points. Detroit will be up to play spoiler vs. a rival.
The pick: Detroit
INDIANAPOLIS (8-4) AT LAS VEGAS (7-5)
Indianapolis by 2.5; O/U: 51
Las Vegas might be the only team in the NFL that would prefer to play Kansas City. How could that same team lose, 43-6, at Atlanta and nearly fall to the winless Jets? The Colts are the better team, but this is the NFL so sometimes it’s best to do the opposite. Give me the George Costanza special: The home ’dog Raiders … and chicken salad on rye, untoasted, with a side of potato salad and a cup of tea!
The pick: Las Vegas
WASHINGTON (5-7) AT SAN FRANCISCO (5-7)
San Francisco by 3; O/U: 43
San Francisco is all but out of playoff contention, and is playing its home games in a different state. That could take a toll.
The pick: Washington
ATLANTA (4-8) AT L.A. CHARGERS (3-9)
Atlanta by 2.5; O/U: 49.5
Atlanta is 4-3 under interim coach Raheem Morris, with two of the losses against 10-win New Orleans.
The pick: Atlanta
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SUNDAY NIGHT
PITTSBURGH (11-1) AT BUFFALO (9-3)
Buffalo by 2; O/U: 48
Pittsburgh could go from having no losses in nearly three months to two losses in six days. That’s so 2020. Let’s face it: The Steelers were not a dominant 11-0, with six of those wins by seven or fewer points. Josh Allen (off a four-TD MNF showing) and Buffalo are 5-1 at home.
The pick: Buffalo
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MONDAY NIGHT
BALTIMORE (7-5) AT CLEVELAND (9-3)
Baltimore by 2; O/U: 47.5
The Browns, off the best first half of football in 2020 — 38-7 at Tennessee — are no longer a pushover. A home ’dog at the Dawg Pound? Show them some respect!
The pick: Cleveland
