Maybe it’s picks fatigue, or the fact I’ve had back-to-back losing weeks after boasting about a 10-win Week 10 (will you ever learn, Joe?), but I don’t have a great feel for this week’s slate of games. Sure, I like a few but a bunch could go either way. As I always say, pinpoint the one or two you feel strongly about and focus on those. Let us get all the other ones wrong.
Underdogs went 7-8 against the spread (ATS) last week but still have a big advantage for the season at 96-81-2. There are a whopping seven home underdogs this week.
My most confident picks ATS are Detroit (yes, Detroit), Miami and the Jets (yes, the Jets). Avoid too-close-to-call Washington-Las Vegas and L.A. Chargers-Cincinnati.
GAME OF THE WEEK
NEW ENGLAND (8-4) AT BUFFALO (7-4)
Monday night
TV: ESPN, 8:15 p.m.
Buffalo by 2.5; O/U: 42.5
With first place on the line, this also feels as if it can be the Game Of The Year. The teams meet again in Week 16, so don’t be surprised if it’s flexed into prime time then. Vegas views this as an even matchup with the home team favored under a field goal, and while I believe this game could go either way, the Patriots look like the more complete team. From the accurate and efficient Mac Jones to a deep defense that can cover Buffalo’s talented receivers, New England has it all. Oh, and some guy named Bill Belichick is its coach. The Patriots have won six in a row, all covers. Josh Allen and the Bills bounced back with a big win at New Orleans on Thanksgiving, but the 41-15 home loss to the Colts that preceded it shows Buffalo has struggled against stronger competition. The Bills swept last season’s series with Tom Brady (32-3 vs. Buffalo) out of town, but the Patriots have his heir apparent now and I see the rookie leading a fun, close win.
The pick: New England
1 P.M. GAMES
GIANTS (4-7) AT MIAMI (5-7)
Miami by 4.5; O/U: 40.5
The Dolphins are the sixth team in NFL history to have a four-game win streak immediately following a 1-7 start. I’ve doubted Miami the last month but this feels like a can’t miss-pick, in part because Tua Tagovailoa, well, can’t miss! His last two games: 27 for 31 and 27 for 33. The Giants (1-4 on the road) may have to start Mike Glennon at quarterback. Not a good recipe against the blitz-happy Dolphins. They’ll smell blood in the water, control this game start to finish and be motivated to enter the bye with their winning streak intact.
The pick: Miami
PHILADELPHIA (5-7) AT JETS (3-8)
Philadelphia by 7; O/U: 45.5
The Jets are the Rodney Dangerfield of the NFL: They get no respect. Of course, beating the two-win Texans shouldn’t garner that much but why is this spread so high? The high-flying Eagles were grounded by the Giants last week in a 13-7 loss and shouldn’t be favored by a TD on the road. Jalen Hurts is hurting, and the Jets have shown some fight at home this year with wins over the Titans and Bengals. Take the points, and don’t be surprised if the Eagles become the first team to lose back-to-back games at MetLife Stadium since the ... Jets a couple weeks ago.
The pick: Jets
L.A. CHARGERS (6-5) AT CINCINNATI (7-4)
Cincinnati by 3; O/U: 50.5
The Bengals had the most impressive win of Week 12, a 41-10 beatdown over the rival Steelers, but that doesn’t mean they’re the easy pick here. In the NFL, things change on a week-to-week basis. Remember when Cincinnati followed a 41-17 win at Baltimore with a loss at the Jets? The inconsistent Chargers are a hard team to figure out, but they should be competitive after last week’s dud in Denver.
The pick: L.A. Chargers
ARIZONA (9-2) AT CHICAGO (4-7)
Arizona by 7.5; O/U: 43.5
Kyler Murray is expected to return and the Cardinals, off a bye, should coast. Check this out: Arizona is 6-0 on the road (all covers), and each win has been by double digits, including some routs (38-13, 37-20, 37-14).
The pick: Arizona
LOCK OF THE WEEK
MINNESOTA (5-6) AT DETROIT (0-10-1)
Minnesota by 7; O/U: 46.5
Lions? Lock? No, it’s not a typo. Remember, this is all about the point spread. And while the Lions appear headed to becoming the first team to go 0-16 AND 0-16-1, they’ve been a big winner against the spread at 7-4. One of those wins was a 19-17 loss at Minnesota in Week 5 on a last-second field goal. Ten of the Vikings’ 11 games have been decided by eight points or fewer, and they’ve showed a tendency to play down to competition the last couple of seasons. They host the Steelers on Thursday, and I can see them overlooking the winless yet well-rested Lions, who keep fighting: 16-16 tie, 13-10 loss, 16-14 loss in their last three.
The pick: Detroit
TAMPA BAY (8-3) AT ATLANTA (5-6)
Tampa Bay by 11; O/U: 50.5
The Bucs won the first meeting, 48-25, in Week 2 but the final score was misleading. It was 28-25 at the end of the third quarter and a couple of late pick-6s turned it into a rout. Tampa Bay will win but last week was its first road cover of the season.
The pick: Atlanta
INDIANAPOLIS (6-6) AT HOUSTON (2-9)
Indianapolis by 10; O/U: 45.5
The Colts beat the Texans, 31-3, in Week 6. Five of their six wins have been by double digits and this should be another one.
The pick: Indianapolis
4 P.M. GAMES
BALTIMORE (8-3) AT PITTSBURGH (5-5-1)
Baltimore by 4.5; O/U: 44
The key to writing an NFL picks column is similar for a closer in baseball: You need a short memory. Forget about the Steelers’ 31-point loss last week. This is Baltimore, a fierce rival, so expect Pittsburgh to give everything it has. The Steelers are banged up, so that might not be enough. But these rivalry games are usually close (28-24 and 19-14 wins for Pittsburgh last season). The Ravens are currently the AFC’s top seed, but they’ve been far from dominant: Only one win by more than six points.
The pick: Pittsburgh
WASHINGTON (5-6) AT LAS VEGAS (6-5)
Las Vegas by 2.5; O/U: 49.5
Both teams need this win to stay in their respective conference’s playoff picture. This is a toss-up, but I really like what I’ve seen from Taylor Heinicke and Washington during a three-game win streak (also 3-0 ATS).
The pick: Washington
JACKSONVILLE (2-9) AT L.A. RAMS (7-4)
L.A. Rams by 13; O/U: 47.5
What’s going on with the Rams? Losers of three straight, they catch a break hosting the two-win Jaguars. Jalen Ramsey will be extra-motivated to rout his former team, but Matthew Stafford isn’t 100% and this spread is just too high. In their last three home games in which they were double-digit favorites, the Rams are 0-3 ATS, including this year’s 28-19 win over the winless Lions. Last year they lost outright to the then-0-13 Jets.
The pick: Jacksonville
SAN FRANCISCO (6-5) AT SEATTLE (3-8)
San Francisco by 3.5; O/U 45.5
San Francisco is heating up with three in a row. Seattle has lost three in a row since Russell Wilson returned and is toast. The 49ers, though, will be without two of their best players in receiver Deebo Samuel and linebacker Fred Warner. Also, Wilson is 15-4 against San Francisco, including a 28-21 win in Week 4.
The pick: Seattle
SUNDAY NIGHT
DENVER (6-5) AT KANSAS CITY (7-4)
TV: NBC, 8:20 p.m.
Kansas City by 9.5; O/U: 47.5
Kansas City has won four in a row and it’s been mostly because of its much-maligned defense, as it’s held opponents to 17, 7, 14 and 9 points during the streak. Andy Reid is 19-3 after the bye, and KC will make it 12 straight wins over Denver but this number just feels too high for a team that hasn’t regularly blown teams out like years past. Denver, off an impressive win over the Chargers, lost 22-16 at KC last year, also on SNF.
The pick: Denver
