Too. Many. Points. You’ll see those three words mentioned several times. Picking games against the spread (ATS) is always difficult, but Week 1 is a different beast. There’s so much unknown. It pays to back underdogs early, as some spreads could be off by a couple of points. Underdogs went 11-5 ATS in Week 1 last season.
There are a whopping 10 road favorites this week, which should also give you pause. In some spots, the spread likely won’t even come into play, but in others, it will.
My most confident picks this week are New Orleans, Tampa Bay and the Giants. Stay away from Jacksonville-Washington and Kansas City-Arizona.
1 p.m. games
BALTIMORE AT NY JETS
Baltimore by 6.5; O/U: 44.5
Zach Wilson went from being hopeful for Week 1 to not returning before Game 4. Enter Joe Flacco, the former Ravens quarterback. Lamar Jackson will do enough for Baltimore to prevail, but this is too many points. The Jets upgraded their roster through free agency and the draft, and rookie corner Sauce Gardner will make an immediate impact against an underwhelming Ravens receiving corps. If the Jets can hold Baltimore to the low 20s, they can cover in what feels like a 20-17 type of game.
The pick: Jets
PITTSBURGH AT CINCINNATI
Cincinnati by 6.5; O/U: 44.5
Ask a Bengals fan what the second-best part about last season’s remarkable run to the Super Bowl was and they’ll probably say it was sweeping the Steelers (24-10 and 41-10). Cincinnati hadn’t done it since 2009. Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and a hungry Bengals team are the easy play here. Let’s see Mitch Trubisky and the Steelers’ new offense before backing them.
The pick: Cincinnati
CLEVELAND AT CAROLINA
Cleveland by 1.5; O/U: 41.5
When the Panthers named Baker Mayfield their Week 1 starter, I couldn’t tweet fast enough that he was going to have a huge revenge game. Now, that feels like an overreaction. As bad as Mayfield wants to beat his old team, the Browns don’t want to lose to him, either. Jacoby Brissett is a serviceable fill-in at quarterback for Cleveland, which is the better team.
The pick: Cleveland
NEW ENGLAND AT MIAMI
Miami by 3.5; O/U: 46.5
The Dolphins are my pick to win the Super Bowl, so why wouldn’t I back them in Week 1? The additions of coach Mike McDaniel, the former 49ers offensive coordinator, and receiver Tyreek Hill give Tua Tagovailoa a huge boost. The belief here is that McDaniel is the NFL’s next Sean McVay, a wunderkind whose game plans are going to take the league by storm. The Patriots won’t have any answers for Hill and fellow speedster Jaylen Waddle. Mac Jones figures to take a step back with Josh McDaniels in Las Vegas and Matt Patricia and Joe Judge running the New England offense.
The pick: Miami
INDIANAPOLIS AT HOUSTON
Indianapolis by 7.5; O/U: 45.5
This is too many points to lay on the road for a Week 1 divisional game. Sure, the Colts have more talent, but weird things happen in the NFL, especially on the first Sunday. Matt Ryan gets his first win with Indianapolis, but Davis Mills & Co. show up.
The pick: Houston
PHILADELPHIA AT DETROIT
Philadelphia by 3.5; O/U: 48.5
Last year’s Lions team played a lot tougher than their 3-13-1 record. Detroit’s worst loss was a 44-6 home defeat to Philadelphia. You think Dan Campbell has been talking that up all week? This will be a close game in the fourth quarter, but the Eagles are my pick to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl and I’m flying with Jalen Hurts and a talented offense that added receiver A.J. Brown.
The pick: Philadelphia
SAN FRANCISCO AT CHICAGO
San Francisco by 6.5; O/U: 40.5
Justin Fields could be in for a long day with an overmatched Bears offensive line, but this is too many points to lay on the road with second-year quarterback Trey Lance in his first Week 1 start. First-year Bears coach Matt Eberflus, the former Colts defensive coordinator, gives Chicago fans some hope in a hard-fought loss.
The pick: Chicago
NEW ORLEANS AT ATLANTA
New Orleans by 5.5; O/U: 42.5
It’s Week 1, so you shouldn’t like too many games. This feels like one of the few exceptions. We know the Falcons are in for a long season, and Marcus Mariota will have his hands full against new Saints coach Dennis Allen’s defense. The Saints have won four of the last five meetings by an average of 9.5 points.
The pick: New Orleans
JACKSONVILLE AT WASHINGTON
Washington by 2.5; O/U: 43.5
This is the “why would you possibly bet on this?” game of the week. New Jaguars coach Doug Pederson knows new Commanders quarterback Carson Wentz from their Eagles days, so that could be an ‘ex’-factor.
The pick: Jacksonville
4 p.m. games
GIANTS AT TENNESSEE
Tennessee by 5.5; O/U: 43.5
Brian Daboll helped turn the Bills' offense into a juggernaut, and while the Giants don’t have the same roster, the new coach’s system should be a big boost for Daniel Jones’ development. A healthy and motivated Saquon Barkley, too. The offense should be more fun to watch. Underdogs always thrive early on, and I believe the Giants are a live ‘dog against an overrated Titans team that is reliant on Derrick Henry. IF (all caps because it’s a big IF) the Giants’ defense can keep him in check just enough, they could be in position to steal a road game . . . their last until Week 7 (they play in London in Week 5). The Titans lost their top pass rusher in Harold Landry, and the Giants’ improved offensive line should give Jones and Barkley opportunities. Expect the unexpected in Week 1: Giants 24, Titans 20.
GREEN BAY AT MINNESOTA
Green Bay by 1.5; O/U: 47.5
There’s no such thing as a must-win in Week 1, but if you’re new Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell, beating Aaron Rodgers and the Packers would be a must-feel-good-win. O’Connell, the former Rams offensive coordinator, should do wonders for Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson and a talented Minnesota team. Rodgers lost his favorite target in Davante Adams, and may be without Allen Lazard, too. Give me Cousins to outplay Rodgers (you like that?).
The pick: Minnesota
KANSAS CITY AT ARIZONA
Kansas City by 5.5; O/U: 53.5
Let’s see how this Kansas City offense looks without Tyreek Hill first before laying nearly a TD on the road. Both teams’ 2021 seasons ended in miserable fashion: KC blowing a 21-3 lead in the AFC title game, Arizona a no-show in a 34-11 rout in the wild-card round. Patrick Mahomes finds a way to win, but no cover.
The pick: Arizona
LAS VEGAS AT L.A. CHARGERS
Los Angeles by 3.5; O/U: 52.5
What will these rivals do for an encore after their epic Week 18 finale? The Raiders’ 35-32 OT win put them in the playoffs and kept the Chargers out. Derek Carr received two huge weapons in old college wideout Davante Adams and coach Josh McDaniels. This is a coin flip, but I’ll side with Las Vegas because of the all-important hook (half-point).
The pick: Las Vegas
SUNDAY NIGHT
TAMPA BAY AT DALLAS
Tampa Bay by 2.5; O/U: 50.5
These two teams kicked off the 2021 season with a TNF thriller, a 31-29 Bucs win in Tampa. Expect another close game. Both teams are hurting on the offensive line, and Todd Bowles’ blitzing defense should give Dallas fits. You also can’t go wrong backing Tom Brady in prime time (55-25 straight up), against the NFC East (21-4) or when he’s facing Dallas (6-0).
The pick: Tampa Bay
MONDAY NIGHT
DENVER AT SEATTLE
Denver by 6.5; O/U: 44.5
Russell Wilson. Seattle. Monday night. It’s usually an unbeatable combo, and now he makes his Broncos debut against his former team. The NFL knows drama. Don’t get too caught up in the narrative, though. This will be an emotional atmosphere for Wilson. Pete Carroll, a master motivator, will have his team ready and if Geno Smith and the offense can score 17 points, Seattle can cover.
The pick: Seattle
