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Joe Manniello

Joe Manniello's Thursday night NFL pick

CHARGERS (4-5) AT RAIDERS (4-4)

TV: Fox, NFL, 8:20 p.m.

Line: Chargers by 1; O/U: 49.5

The Raiders' 31-24 win over the Lions Sunday was their first game at Oakland in 49 days. Now they'll play their second home game in a span of five days in a suddenly-very-important AFC West matchup.

The victor will have five wins and be right in the thick of the wild-card race. Both teams are fresh off impressive wins, especially the resurgent Chargers. Their 26-11 victory over the Packers was a shocker, and if not for the maddening goal-line loss at Tennessee in Week 7, L.A. would be on a three-game win streak.

This is a fairly even matchup: Rookie sensation Josh Jacobs and the Raiders' O-line should have lots of success; Philip Rivers and his pass-catching backs and receivers should have their way, too.

But here's why the Raiders are the pick: This is the final prime-time game at the Oakland Coliseum, and most importantly, there's lots of value with this point spread. It's an overreaction to the Chargers' win over a sleepwalking Packers team. If this was a Chargers home game, they'd be favored by a TD? That's ridiculous! The Raiders should be 2-3 points favorites at home, so take advantage of the skewered line (thanks, public bettors) and cash in as Jacobs, Derek Carr and Jon Gruden's guys grind out a close win.

The pick: Raiders

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