ATLANTA (4-5) AT CAROLINA (2-7)
TV: Amazon Prime, 8:15 p.m.
Line: Atlanta by 3; O/U: 42.5
On the surface, this NFC South matchup doesn’t look all that interesting. But if you watch NFL RedZone like I do every Sunday, you’ll know that these teams played one of the most exciting games of the season just two weeks ago. The Falcons’ 37-34 overtime win featured a 34-point fourth quarter (21 by the Panthers) and three lead changes. Carolina essentially had the game won after a 62-yard touchdown pass with 12 seconds left tied it at 34, only to be done in by an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty and missed extra point.
Long story long: Eleven days later, expect another down-to-the-wire game. Carolina enters off a 42-21 loss at Cincinnati in which it trailed 35-0 at halftime. The Panthers replaced P.J. Walker, but the quarterback will start this week. He threw for 317 yards against the Falcons, whose defense ranks last against the pass (300 yards per game).
The fact that the Panthers are off a humiliating loss, one that resulted in two assistant coaches being fired, works in their favor. I usually like taking teams off bad defeats, especially on a short week because now they only wait four days to change the narrative.
This is only the fifth time this season that division rivals are meeting for a second time. In the four previous occurrences, there were three season sweeps, with the winning team also covering both games. Atlanta didn’t cover as a 4-point favorite in the first matchup. Take the points with a home 'dog that can win outright.
The pick: Carolina
