Newsday's Joe Manniello breaks down the reasons behind his pick to win Super Bowl 56:
SUPER BOWL LVI: BENGALS VS. RAMS
Sunday, NBC, 6:30 p.m.
Rams by 4; O/U: 48.5
1. WHO DEY ... WHY NOT DEY?!
This has been the most wide-open season in recent memory, so the Bengals going from four wins to the Super Bowl shouldn’t be all that shocking ... even if I wrote before Championship Sunday that I’d be SHOCKED if Cincinnati won at Kansas City. Imagine how I felt when the Bengals pulled off the feat by rallying from a 21-3 deficit. It was remarkable, and it set up a 4 seed vs. 4 seed Super Bowl that is further proof neither conference had a dominant team. Beating Kansas City twice in one month tells you all you need to know about this Bengals team. They belong. They went 4-0 against the Ravens and Steelers, sweeping Pittsburgh for the first time since the 2009 season. The AFC North champs then earned their first playoff win since January of 1991 before picking up the franchise’s first road postseason win when they KO’d 1 seed Tennessee. The star-studded Rams winning a title at home would literally be a Hollywood ending, but Joe Burrow and his supporting cast can handle this stage.
2. NO. 9 VS. NO. 9: BURROW NO. 1
In a quarterback battle of former No. 1 overall picks who also wear the same jersey number, Burrow is the one I trust more. Matthew Stafford is new to playoff success: He was 0-3 with Detroit before this run. Stafford’s story is super, but Burrow just exhibits that "Joe Cool" feel, right? He was sacked nine times – nine times! – by the Titans but still found a way to lead a late win. At KC, he was sacked just once as he used his legs to pick up key first downs that were crucial to the comeback. He’s smart and poised. The 2019 Heisman winner threw for five touchdowns and ran in another one in LSU’s 42-25 win over Clemson in the national title game to complete a perfect season. Yes, this is only Burrow’s second year as a pro, but the 25-year-old has shown the moment won’t be too big for him.
3. THE POINT SPREAD
Bengals 19, Titans 16.
Bengals 27, Kansas City 24 (OT).
Rams 30, Bucs 27.
Rams 20, 49ers 17.
Sensing a pattern? Both teams got here by winning their last two games by three points apiece. In a year full of close matchups, expect the Super Bowl to be another competitive game. Both are well-coached, have young playmakers (how have I not mentioned the Bengals’ dynamic rookie receiver Ja’Marr Chase yet?) and unheralded players (hello, Bengals D-line) to make this a true toss-up. So with the likely final score being Rams by 3 or Bengals by 3, getting over a field goal is huge. Extra point: If this game is decided by a big kick, I want the ball lined up for Evan McPherson’s right foot. The rookie is 12 for 12 in the playoffs, including two game-winners. Don’t be surprised if he makes it three in a row.
THE PICK: BENGALS +4
Full disclosure: I don’t feel super confident about this game. When the matchup was set, my first instinct was, "How are the Bengals going to stop Aaron Donald and that Rams’ D-line?" But the Bengals have had two weeks to devise a game plan to keep Burrow safe. Expect a lot of early run calls, quick throws and maybe a trick play here or there. Burrow is good against the blitz, too. Speaking of pressure, it’s all on the all-in Rams, especially after they acquired Stafford to take that next step after losing in the Super Bowl with Jared Goff. The most intriguing matchup is on the sidelines, with Sean McVay facing off against his old quarterbacks coach, Zac Taylor. The Bengals’ boss knows him well. The Rams were my pick to win the Super Bowl before the season started, but you should base your pick on the present, not the past. Neither team will run away with this and therefore taking the four points feels like great line value. Burrow’s Bengals have shown they shouldn’t be counted out.
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STAFF SUPER BOWL PICKS
JOE MANNIELLO
Season Record: 141-129-2
Playoffs: 8-4
Pick: Bengals 23, Rams 20
MVP: Joe Burrow
BOB GLAUBER
Season Record: 136-134-2
Playoffs: 6-6
Pick: Rams 27, Bengals 20
MVP: Matthew Stafford
TOM ROCK
Season Record: 140-130-2
Playoffs: 6-6
Pick: Rams 31, Bengals 17
MVP: Odell Beckham Jr.
AL IANNAZZONE
Season Record: 124-146-2
Playoffs: 4-8
Pick: Rams 31, Bengals 23
MVP: Cooper Kupp
