The NFL's divisional round is the best weekend in football. Eight teams, four games, the best of the best. All four home teams are favored, with two spreads over a touchdown. Underdogs went 4-2 against the spread (ATS) in the wild-card round, with the Jaguars and Giants winning outright. Both are big underdogs Saturday at the house of the 1 seeds. On Sunday, it's Bengals-Bills in the rematch from the Week 17 MNF game that was canceled followed by the rivalry of my childhood: San Francisco at Dallas. It all shapes up as a fun weekend.
JACKSONVILLE AT KANSAS CITY
Saturday, 4:30 p.m., NBC
Kansas City by 8.5; O/U: 52.5
House money. It’s a term that gets thrown around when surprising teams such as the Jaguars (and Giants) are facing heavy favorites. That doesn’t mean you should bet the house on an underdog, but it’s a point of interest for sure. Both Jacksonville and Kansas City are 7-1 since their Week 10 meeting at Arrowhead, a 27-17 win for the hosts that could’ve been closer if not for the Jaguars missing two field goals and having a touchdown called back. KC had one of its rare covers as a big favorite (9.5), jumping out to a 20-0 lead. Andy Reid-coached teams are 27-4 after a bye week, but I like the Jaguars and the points. KC had a few close wins as big favorites (two games against the Broncos and one against the Texans immediately come to mind). Jags coach Doug Pederson, Reid’s former OC in KC, isn’t afraid to gamble on fourth down. Even if Patrick Mahomes starts fast, we saw last week that you can never count out Trevor Lawrence. He threw four second-half TDs after four first-half INTs as the Jaguars rallied from 27-0 down to win 31-30.
The pick: Jacksonville
The score: Kansas City 30, Jacksonville 24
GIANTS AT PHILADELPHIA
Saturday, 8:15 p.m., Fox
Philadelphia by 7.5; O/U: 48.5
In Week 14, the Eagles dominated the undermanned Giants, 48-22, at MetLife Stadium. In Week 18, the Eagles held on for a 22-16 win against a Giants team not playing its starters. It’s not often you can catch a team by surprise in the third meeting of the season, but that’s the scenario here, as the Eagles have yet to face this version of the Giants. The one that’s at full strength and whose confidence is through the roof after an impressive road playoff win. No way Brian Daboll’s crew is intimidated by facing the NFC’s 1 seed. Sure, the Giants have lost nine in a row at Philly, but that means nothing, especially with so many players not around for most, if any, of those games. We’ve seen what Daboll and his coaching staff can do when facing an opponent that they just played (right, Commanders and Vikings?). Daniel Jones, Saquon Barkley and a healthy defense are capable of the outright upset. But with Jalen Hurts playing, the Eagles should win. Philadelphia is 14-1 in games he starts. It also has a sack-happy defense and playmakers galore. If Hurts is not 100%, though, maybe I’ll be writing about these Giants again next week.
The pick: Giants
The score: Philadelphia 27, Giants 23
CINCINNATI AT BUFFALO
Sunday, 3 p.m., CBS
Buffalo by 5.5; O/U: 48.5
When making our round-by-round playoff predictions last week, this game was the most difficult to pick. I’ve been on the Bengals’ bandwagon most of the second half (they haven’t lost since Week 8) and went with them to win this game and then the Super Bowl. Buffalo would be a great story after the remarkable recovery of Damar Hamlin. But all that pressure could be too much, and Josh Allen’s turnover issues (three more last week) are cause for concern. These teams met in Week 17 on MNF, a game that was canceled after Hamlin went into cardiac arrest. The Bengals marched right down the field on the Bills for a touchdown and led 7-3 before play was halted. Both teams struggled as big favorites last week, Buffalo edging Miami and its third-string quarterback and Cincinnati needing a wild 98-yard fumble-return TD to escape Baltimore and its back-up quarterback. That both had to work harder than expected means we’ll likely get both teams’ best effort this week. Cincinnati could be down three starters on the offensive line, but this pick is all about Joe Burrow. He led a divisional round road win last year despite getting sacked nine times. Burrow has the seventh-best QBR when under pressure this season, according to ESPN. I believe he and a talented corps of receivers led by Ja’Marr Chase will air it out against a beatable Bills secondary and find a way again to make the AFC title game.
The pick: Cincinnati
The score: Cincinnati 33, Buffalo 30
DALLAS AT SAN FRANCISCO
Sunday, 6:30 p.m., Fox
San Francisco by 3.5; O/U: 46.5
Dak Prescott and Dallas put on a show Monday night, and are now a popular upset pick. But wait, what about San Francisco? The team that after a slow start against Seattle last week, flipped a switch and scored 25 unanswered points to start the second half. The team that has won 11 in a row, including a 6-0 mark with Brock Purdy at quarterback. From “Mr. Irrelevant” to the most talked-about player in the Divisional Round, it’s been quite a journey for the last-picked player in this year’s draft. All the doubters have been waiting for the week the rookie finally looks like one, and while Dallas will be the best defense he’s faced yet, I expect Purdy to do enough to keep the 49ers’ train rolling. Remember, you don’t have to be Joe Montana to thrive in Kyle Shanahan’s offense, and with Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle, it’s all about letting the playmakers make plays. Nick Bosa or Micah Parsons: Which game-changing pass rusher will change the game the most? And in a close game, do you trust Brett Maher to make a field goal after missing four extra points last week? This could come down to the wire like last year’s wild-card matchup when Prescott ran out of time. The clock won’t strike midnight on Purdy’s Cinderella story yet.
The pick: San Francisco
The score: San Francisco 24, Dallas 17
