Wild-card weekend didn’t produce much excitement, but the divisional round looks as if it will. Bengals-Titans is the lone game that isn’t a rematch from earlier in the season. With all four games having point spreads of under a touchdown, expect close, interesting matchups. From 14 to eight, who will make it to the NFL’s Final Four?
SATURDAY’S GAMES
CINCINNATI AT TENNESSEE
TV: CBS, 4:30 p.m.
The line: Tennessee by 3.5; O/U: 47
These teams don’t have much in common, except for the strange fact that they both beat Kansas City and both lost ... to the Jets! When making round-by-round predictions last week, Bengals-Titans was a tough one. I picked the visitors partly because I wanted to see a Cincinnati-Kansas City rematch in the title game after the teams’ Week 17 thriller. Now, having a little more time to think about it, I’ve changed my mind. It seems as if the whole world is picking Joe Burrow and the young Bengals.
Remember, the Titans are one of the most well-coached teams. Don’t underestimate Mike Vrabel, who led his team to the AFC title game two seasons ago. Tennessee (7-2 at home) should have Derrick Henry back, a huge deal made even bigger after the Bengals lost defensive tackle Larry Ogunjobi last week. A couple others are banged-up as well, though they could have top pass rusher Trey Hendrickson (concussion protocol), who was cleared to play. Another reason to fade the Bengals is because we’ve seen this story before: A young team gets its first playoff win, and then falls short. Sure, Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase can double-handedly win this game with explosive plays but backing the more experienced home team getting its best player back feels like the right side.
The pick: Tennessee
The score: Tennessee 24, Cincinnati 20
SAN FRANCISCO AT GREEN BAY
TV: Fox, 8:15 p.m.
The line: Green Bay by 5.5; O/U: 47.5
While Jimmy Garoppplo and San Francisco will be out of their element in near single-digit temperatures at Lambeau Field, all the heat will be on Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay. The Packers went 8-0 at home to again earn the NFC’s top seed. But last year ended with a loss in the NFC title game, the third time Rodgers has been denied a second trip to the Super Bowl. Do those past losses mean anything? Maybe, maybe not. But it’s hard to believe it won’t enter his mind if this is a close game late. One of those Packers NFC title game losses was at San Francisco (37-20) just two seasons ago. Green Bay’s defense is much improved from then, and if it can bottle up the electric Deebo Samuel, the 49ers will be in trouble. The biggest question mark, as has always been the case with these 49ers, is Garoppolo, who has been dealing with injuries. He had some shaky moments in last week’s wild wild-card win at Dallas and can’t afford any game-changing mistakes.
With Samuel, George Kittle, a stout defense and an experienced coach, the 49ers have the feel of the 2011 Giants that won three road games before winning the Super Bowl. The Packers beat the 49ers, 30-28, on a last-second field goal in Week 3. I picked the 49ers to make the Super Bowl before the playoffs started, and while just learning that Garoppolo has never played in this cold of a game (gulp!) concerns me a bit, I’m still sticking with it. All the pressure is on Rodgers and Green Bay. History says they’re not a sure thing when they’re "expected" to win.
The pick: San Francisco
The score: San Francisco 30, Green Bay 28
SUNDAY’S GAMES
L.A. RAMS AT TAMPA BAY
TV: NBC, 3 p.m.
The line: Tampa Bay by 3; O/U: 48.5
This pick comes down to one question: Can you bet against Tom Brady? If the answer is no, I totally understand. For those who think the defending champs are primed to be picked off, let’s get at it. In the wild-card round, the Bucs couldn’t have asked for a better matchup: A run-stuffing defense against an Eagles offense that likes to run. Now? This is the last team Tampa Bay wants to see. The Bucs have been dealing with secondary issues since the season opener, and now they face a Rams team loaded with receiving threats. In the teams’ Week 3 matchup, Matthew Stafford threw for 343 yards and four touchdowns in a 34-24 home win. Now, in addition to Cooper Kupp, the Rams have a motivated Odell Beckham Jr. that is looking more and more like his old Giant self. How are the Bucs going to stop this passing attack?
On the other side, Brady doesn’t have Chris Godwin, which means Jalen Ramsey can zero in on Mike Evans. By now, everyone knows the key to beating Brady is applying pressure. The Rams have that covered, too, with Aaron Donald and Von Miller. The Rams also beat Brady’s Bucs last year in Tampa. Sean McVay should put together a hard-to-stop, downfield attack that I don’t see Tampa Bay stopping. Ride the Rams’ momentum from Monday night as they KO the champs.
The pick: L.A. Rams
The score: L.A. Rams 34, Tampa Bay 24
BUFFALO AT KANSAS CITY
TV: CBS, 6:30 p.m.
The line: Kansas City by 1.5; O/U: 53.5
This feels like the AFC Championship Game, right? It was last year, a 38-24 win by Kansas City after Buffalo led 9-0. Expect a much more competitive game. Buffalo won at KC in Week 5, a 38-20 victory it reveled in after last year’s setback. That was when KC was in a funk, though, part of a 2-3 start as the defense was struggling. The two-time defending AFC champs went 10-2 the rest of the way, and the defense’s turnaround was a big reason why. Can Buffalo do it again? KC will be extra motivated against a team that pushed it around in prime time. With Josh Allen leading a hot offense and the NFL’s No. 1 defense, Buffalo can clearly win this game. But I’m not picking against Patrick Mahomes & Co., especially not at home. Just look at his playoff numbers: 7-2 with 22 TDs to 5 INTs. The only two losses were against Tom Brady’s Patriots in the AFC title game three seasons ago and Brady’s Bucs in last year’s Super Bowl.
KC’s defense is much improved, so the Bills won’t have another "perfect game" like last week’s 47-17 win over the Patriots. It was first time in NFL history an offense had no field goals, no punts and no turnovers in the same game. It also scored a TD on its first seven drives, another record-setter. From a betting perspective, that works against them because now they’re overvalued. Had Buffalo won by 7 to 10, this week’s spread would likely be KC -3, maybe even 3.5 after its own dominant 42-21 win over the Steelers. Now, you’re getting good line value and don’t have to worry about a KC push if it wins by 3. The Bills might be a popular pick, but I’m going with the proven commodity in Mahomes, Andy Reid and all their weapons in their building.
The pick: Kansas City
The score: Kansas City 38, Buffalo 31
