Kirk Cousins led the Minnesota Vikings to their first win of 2023 in Week 4. He didn’t make it look easy.
The veteran quarterback threw a pair of interceptions — both deep in enemy territory — but managed to earn a comeback victory in Charlotte. That left him as an aberration on this week’s list of worst quarterbacks. He’s the only winner among this six-man crew.
He’s not the only big name, however, nestled between the growing pains of rising quarterbacks like Jordan Love and Desmond Ridder is Joe Burrow — a preseason MVP candidate who has clearly been affected by the calf injury that stole his preseason. His inability to create throwing space and generate deep balls has been a massive detriment for a now 1-3 Cincinnati Bengals team.
Who was the worst quarterback this week? Fortunately, we’ve got tools to better understand just how damaging these underwhelming performances were. Using the advanced stat expected points added (EPA) can gauge how much a quarterback brings to the table compared to a typical player.
By comparing each passer’s Week 4 EPA against their 2022 average (or the small sample size of their 2023, if they hadn’t played enough) we get a better picture of just how frustrating their days were. And we can find both of those thanks to The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and his incredibly useful stats sites RBSDM.com and HabitatRing.com. So let’s take a look at who disappointed the most in the fourth game of the 2023 season.
6
Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers
2022 expected points added (EPA) per game: 1.2
Week 4 EPA: -10.3
Difference: 11.5 points worse
Pickett has spent 2023 building damning evidence that his NFL ceiling is that of a low-impact journeyman backup. His Week 4 couldn’t have gone much worse. A fourth-and-1 sack effectively crushed the Steelers’ comeback hopes in Houston while simultaneously knocking him out of the lineup due to injury and reintroducing Mitchell Trubisky to the land of first-string quarterbacks — a place where he is a man without a country.
Over his last two weeks, Pickett has attempted nine throws that went at least 15 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. He has one completion on those attempts and three interceptions. His one deep ball Sunday? Intercepted.
WE SEE YOU 21 😤 pic.twitter.com/HksuKXQEnQ
— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) October 1, 2023
This is a problem that’s chased him from Saturdays in Pittsburgh to Sundays. Pickett’s breakthrough at Pitt relied on high variance big plays made possible in large part by Jordan Addison. His lack of pinpoint accuracy and penchant for 50/50 balls has swung against him in the pros, leaving the Steelers punch-less when it comes to the deep throws that can loosen up a defense.
Instead, Pickett’s completions are clustered around the line of scrimmage, opponents have no reason not to stuff the box and the Pittsburgh run game — not great to begin with — is left to average just 1.7 yards before contact per carry, fourth-worst in the NFL.
There’s blame here beyond just a second-year quarterback’s struggles. Offensive coordinator Matt Canada continues to make baffling decisions that swing wildly between too conservative and too cute. But Pickett is the genesis of these problems and if he can’t improve as the weather gets colder he could play his way out of a starring role in the Steel City.
5
Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings
2022 expected points added (EPA) per game: 2.6
Week 4 EPA: -10.9
Difference: 13.5 points worse
This is everything bad about Kirk Cousins, condensed into a single play.
Sam read this all the way through 😤 pic.twitter.com/wddEPvmVj0
— Carolina Panthers (@Panthers) October 1, 2023
The Vikings have been stuck learning a painful lesson about regression throughout 2023. After going 11-0 in one-possession games in the 2022 regular season — and finishing the year with a 13-4 record despite a negative-three point differential and more turnovers lost than forced — Minnesota had gone 0-3 in those contests to open the season. The Carolina Panthers weren’t good enough to keep that streak alive, but there was plenty to worry about in the Vikes’ win.
Cousins remains the most relevant concern. While his raw stats paint a picture of a prolific passer — he came into Week 4 having thrown for more yards than anyone — the flaws that have traced a line through his career came into highlighted focus this fall. He only has four interceptions this season, but all four have come within his opponents’ 25-yard line. He’s actively taking points off the board in a season where his losses have come by three, six and four points, respectively.
It’s not just bad turnover luck and the odd bad throw or miscommunication that’s hurting Cousins. His offensive line, in a word, stinks. He’s on pace to be hit 110 times this season — 26 more than his previous career high.
Up for grabs 🙌
Kamu claimed it. pic.twitter.com/vrYravwRUQ
— Carolina Panthers (@Panthers) October 1, 2023
Cousins’ 27.7 percent pressure rate is the second-highest of his Vikings career, trailing only a 2020 season in which Minnesota was never better than .500 and finished 7-9. That year, the offense put up big numbers, failed to score at the rate it gained yards, and ultimately unraveled behind the league’s 27th-ranked defense. This year, the Vikings are putting up big numbers, failing to score at the rate they gain yards and unraveling behind the league’s 27th-ranked defense.
So apologies to Minnesota for having to go through 2020 all over again.
4
Desmond Ridder, Atlanta Falcons
2022 expected points added (EPA) per game: -0.4
Week 4 EPA: -15.8
Difference: 15.4 points worse
Two weeks, two straight games with a negative EPA in the double-digits. It’s still early, but the Falcons may still be searching for their franchise quarterback.
Since leading Atlanta to a comeback win vs. the Green Bay Packers, Ridder has been a disaster. He balanced his lone touchdown of the day against a Darious Williams pick-six — one of three turnovers in his London debut.
Defense wanted one too 🤷♂️@Dee_Willl2 | #ATLvsJAX on FOX/ESPN+/NFL+ pic.twitter.com/aZWdj4H8PA
— Jacksonville Jaguars (@Jaguars) October 1, 2023
Ridder attempted five passes that traveled at least 15 yards downfield and failed to complete a single one. This was a trend that had chased the second-year quarterback throughout the season. Coming into Week 4, he ranked 33rd among 35 qualified players when it came to catchable pass rate (65 percent) in 2023. The only QBs he’d outperformed were Bryce Young and, deep sigh, Zach Wilson.
Correction to this, as pointed out by @stack__trace. MNF had not yet been charted, so every throw showed up as uncatchable. Here is the updated version.
Mayfield moves from 30th to 3rd!! 👀
Hurts from 34th to 16th!
Burrow from 35th to 28th
Stafford from 33rd to 29th. https://t.co/H9CnfeGDMM pic.twitter.com/ceZFqxVy1I— Joseph Hefner (@josephjefe) September 28, 2023
For the second straight week, a high octane pass rush battered Ridder and exploited his inability to execute under pressure. The Jaguars sacked him four times and hit him seven more on 35 dropbacks — a 31 percent chaos rate that lines up with the 15 sacks and hits on 45 dropbacks a week prior vs. the Lions (33 percent). Compare that to his Week 2 win, where Green Bay only sacked him once. As a result, no quarterback has been responsible for more turnover-worthy plays this season despite the fact Atlanta throws the ball less than all but five other NFL teams.
That’s the blueprint for beating this Falcons team. Pressure Ridder and he unravels, spraying inaccurate throws downfield and failing to take advantage of the prodigious playmakers in his offense. The Houston Texans will know exactly what to do when they face Atlanta in Week 5.
3
Mac Jones, New England Patriots
2022 expected points added (EPA) per game: -1.3
Week 4 EPA: -17.3
Difference: 16 points worse
Which play best sums up the futility of year three of the Mac Jones experiment? Is it his inability to identify a wide open DeVante Parker on third down, only then to sling the ball six feet over his head?
all Mac Jones has to do is hit an open, 6-foot-4 receiver on a simple crossing route. in fairness, he only missed by about 6 yards pic.twitter.com/nEDWl1xbww
— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) October 1, 2023
Or is his his innate and frankly impressive inability to recognize running lanes on the ground, turning what should have been a first down into a bone-crushing hit and a fourth down (he threw an interception on the ensuing play).
Mac Jones: has an open lane to the left to pick up the first down
Mac Jones: does not go left, dies pic.twitter.com/JG2XunR0dt
— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) October 1, 2023
Combine those two garbage plays and you have probable cause to pull him from the lineup and insert Bailey Zappe instead.
2
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
2022 expected points added (EPA) per game: 7.6
Week 4 EPA: -10.2
Difference: 17.8 points worse
There’s a caveat here. Burrow can’t be JOE BURROW (or Joe Sheisty, Joe Brrr, etc) while he’s playing through a calf injury. The Pro Bowl quarterback is clearly not himself, as that lower leg malady has thoroughly sapped his ability to move in the pocket and, crucially, step into big throws downfield.
On Sunday, despite trailing throughout the game, Burrow only completed one pass that traveled at least 10 yards downfield.
Burrow averaged 5.5 yards per pass Sunday and it was an improvement on his season average. His average throw traveled only 4.7 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. For comparison, the lowest average throw distance in 2022 belonged to a washed Matt Ryan, and his throws still went six yards downfield.
By this time last season, Burrow had scrambled for 79 yards, buying crucial time in the pocket and extending drives when blocking broke down around him, even in an uneven start. This year, he’s at … three. His 2.25 seconds from snap to throw in Week 4 was the lowest number by any quarterback so far in 2023.
You see this comin' at ya wyd?
📺: Watch #CINvsTEN on @NFLonFOX pic.twitter.com/lFrFRZ6CJm
— Tennessee Titans (@Titans) October 1, 2023
The only way this gets better is by Burrow getting healthy. A nagging calf injury won’t heal in a week or even over the course of a bye. This is absolutely brutal for the Bengals and even more frustrating for their star quarterback.
1
Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
2023 expected points added (EPA) per game: 11.2
Week 4 EPA: -11.8
Difference: 23 points worse
Love made this list last week despite a positive EPA, showcasing how far he had to fall after a two-week run that advanced stats both loved and could not figure out (his EPA was a top-three number and his completion percentage over expected, which measures the throws he makes vs. the throws he’s supposed to, ranked in the bottom three). That was not the case this week; Love was brutal and Green Bay got stomped into a froghole on its home turf.
Here, for example, is Love working off a play-action fake and staring down his top target. Alex Anzalone tips it for an easy pick, but it’s clear that this pass, headed for double coverage, had a near-zero success rate.
.@AlexAnzalone34 with the tip, @_luhjerry with the INT!#DETvsGB | 📺 @NFLonPrime pic.twitter.com/hqrTVs6s4m
— Detroit Lions (@Lions) September 29, 2023
These are the growing pains that come with Love. He adjusts slowly, leading to quiet starts but stronger finishes. His first half EPA/play clocks in at -0.118, but in the second half that rises to 0.416 — the highest number in the league. On Thursday night, he went from -0.835 — costing the Packers nearly a point per dropback! — to 0.172 after halftime.
I suppose that’s a credit to head coach Matt LaFleur’s adjustments and Love’s ability to roll with them. But it alludes heavily to the toughness of the transition from three-year backup to unquestioned starter. Green Bay is still moving pieces around its fourth-year quarterback to figure out what works. That’s meant better-than-expected development from Romeo Doubs and limited returns from the rushing game.
It’s also meant some frustrating passes for Love, whose deep ball looked better in Week 4 but who still struggles to fit passes into tight windows. Getting Christian Watson back into the mix should help — he was responsible for Green Bay’s only passing touchdown Thursday. So will Aaron Jones’ return to full strength. But for now there’s enough evidence to back Love as a franchise quarterback as well as breed concern about what his future actually holds.
