Following President Joe Biden‘s pardon of his son Hunter Biden, speculation has intensified about whom President-elect Donald Trump may pardon, with Polymarket odds revealing insights into potential beneficiaries.
Potential Pardon Candidates
January 6th Rioters
January 6th rioters—often referred to as “J6 hostages” in Trump's rhetoric— have emerged as top candidates, with traders assigning an 85% chance of a pardon in the first 100 days.
Trump’s statements criticizing the justice system and hinting at pardons for these individuals further support the trend.
In a Truth Social post, Trump questioned whether Joe Biden's pardons for his son Hunter Biden extended to those imprisoned for their roles in the January 6th Capitol riot.
He labeled their continued incarceration a "miscarriage of justice," aligning with his past hints at clemency for these individuals.
Trump has repeatedly voiced sympathy for those convicted for storming the U.S. Capitol, framing them as victims of political persecution.
High-profile cases include Jacob Chansley, the so-called "QAnon Shaman," who was sentenced to 41 months in prison, and others who have received substantial penalties for their actions during the riot.
Pardoning these individuals would likely be a cornerstone of Trump's narrative about judicial overreach.
Edward Snowden
The former National Security Agency contractor, currently exiled in Russia, leaked classified information in 2013 about global surveillance programs.
Advocates argue his disclosures sparked necessary debates about privacy and government transparency, while critics view him as a traitor.
A pardon for Snowden would be a dramatic move signaling a shift in U.S. policy on whistleblowers, but traders only give it an 18% chance.
Julian Assange
The founder of WikiLeaks, currently fighting extradition to the United States from the U.K., is accused of publishing classified documents that exposed U.S. military activities.
Trump once praised WikiLeaks during his 2016 campaign but distanced himself later.
A pardon for Assange would ignite significant political debate, given his polarizing role in journalism and national security.
An Assange pardon is given a 16% chance.
Steve Bannon
Bannon, Trump’s former strategist and longtime ally, was convicted of contempt of Congress for defying a subpoena related to the January 6th investigation.
Although Trump previously pardoned him in a separate case involving fraud charges, a second pardon remains plausible given their enduring political relationship. Traders see a 32% of Bannon being pardoned.
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