The market continued its impressive rally last week with the S&P 500 ($SPX) (SPY) closing at new all-time highs. The November rally was one of the strongest on record, with the index gaining over 3.42% for the month.
This week brings several high-impact economic releases that could influence market direction, with Friday's jobs report being the highlight. We also have important manufacturing data and consumer spending updates that could impact the Fed's rate decision later this month.
Here are 5 things to watch this week in the Market.
ISM Manufacturing PMI
Monday kicks off with the ISM Manufacturing PMI at 10 am Eastern. Manufacturing has been in contraction territory for several months, and economists are expecting another sub-50 reading. If we see a surprise to the upside and break above 50, indicating expansion, it could boost cyclical stocks and the broader market. However, a deeper contraction could raise concerns about economic growth and potentially pressure stocks, particularly in the industrial sector.
JOLTS Job Openings
Tuesday brings the JOLTS Job Openings report, which has been trending lower throughout 2024 but remains elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels. The labor market's strength has been a key factor in the Fed's "higher for longer" stance. A significant drop in job openings could fuel speculation about rate cuts in early 2024, potentially supporting market momentum. Conversely, stronger-than-expected numbers might dampen rate cut expectations.
ADP Employment Change
Wednesday's ADP Employment Change report serves as a precursor to Friday's official jobs data. After last month's modest numbers, analysts are watching closely for signs of labor market cooling. A significant miss to the downside could boost markets on expectations of Fed easing, while a strong beat might cause some near-term volatility as traders reassess rate cut timelines.
Initial Jobless Claims
Thursday's weekly jobless claims have taken on increased importance as the market looks for signs of labor market softening. Recent weeks have shown a gradual uptick in claims, and continued increases could support the narrative of a cooling economy. However, if claims come in significantly lower than expected, it might challenge the market's recent optimism about potential rate cuts.
Non-Farm Payrolls
The week's main event comes Friday with the November Non-Farm Payrolls report. After October's lower-than-expected numbers, markets will be watching to see if the trend continues. The unemployment rate and average hourly earnings data will be equally important, as wage growth remains a key inflation indicator. A softer report could fuel the recent market rally, while stronger-than-expected numbers might lead to some profit-taking after November's substantial gains.
Best of luck this week and don't forget to check out my daily options article.
