The Labor Department published its weekly estimate of new applications for jobless benefits Thursday as investors remain keenly focused on the labor market as a driver of near-term inflation prospects.
Around 2390,000 people likely filed new applications for the week ending on August 12, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said, compared to economists' forecast of 240,000, down from the revised 250,000 recorded over the prior period and just ahead of the recent four-week average of 231,000.
The insured unemployment rate, a measure of the number of people currently receiving jobless benefits represented as a percentage of the broader labor force, ticked modestly higher to 1.2% from 1.1%.
The BLS reported last month that average hourly earnings rose 4.4% from a year earlier, and 0.3% from June, even as the overall tally of new jobs created slowed to 187,000 the lowest since December of 2020.
That has analysts concerned that autumn hiring, especially with the economy growing at a 5.8% clip, according to Atlanta Fed data, will accelerate wage pressures and add further upward pressure to near-term inflation readings.
"Although growth in payrolls had slowed recently, it continued to exceed values consistent over time with an unchanged unemployment rate, and that nominal wages were still rising at rates above levels assessed to be consistent with the sustained achievement of the Committee’s 2% objective," minutes from the Fed's July policy meeting indicated.
"Participants judged that further progress toward a balancing of demand and supply in the labor market was needed, and they expected that additional softening in labor market conditions would take place over time," the minutes added.
Delivery giant UPS (UPS) -) reached a labor agreement with the Teamsters Union last month, averting a damaging strike, that will pay workers $21 per hour -- a 31.25% increase -- and more experienced drivers as much as $50 per hour.
The United Autoworkers' Union, meanwhile, is demanding a 40% increase for its members as it starts negotiations with Ford (F) -), General Motors (GM) -) and Stellantis on a contract that was last agreed in 2019.
“We have to work longer and harder just to maintain the same standard of living we had before,” said UAW president Shawn Fain.
The BLS will publish its next monthly jobs report on Friday September 1.
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