Jim Chalmers’ first budget comes amid a darkening economic outlook. Here’s what could go wrong

Treasurer Jim Chalmers delivers his first budget, which forecasts growth this year but warns of looming fiscal strains. Photograph: Mick Tsikas/AAP

The resilience of Australian households to soaring expenses and the nascent recovery of China’s economy will likely determine whether Jim Chalmers’ first budget is a charm or chimera.

This year’s forecast for Australia’s economy to grow 3.25% may be the best this side of the next federal election as the Reserve Bank tries to douse inflation with another 75 basis points of interest rate hikes. The outlook, though, is darkening at home and abroad, adding to looming fiscal strains.