Games of the week
Jets (7–4) at Vikings (9–2), 1 p.m. ET Sunday: The Mike White show hits the road this week as the Jets get themselves into a game that could dictate their near future as a playoff team. While this inter-conference matchup doesn’t weigh heavily on the standings (according to FiveThirtyEight, a loss doesn’t necessarily torpedo their chances of making the playoffs), it does provide the Jets with the opportunity for a quality win, a confidence booster and a buffer with the division-rival Bills up next and the always complicated Lions looming. An 8–4 record would be an incredible buffer for this team, which is still trying to get all of its component parts on board and moving in the same direction. — Conor Orr
Ed Mulholland/USA TODAY Sports
Commanders (7–5) at Giants (7–4) , 1 p.m. ET Sunday: On the morning of October 24, the Commanders were coming off their second consecutive win—a big one over the Packers—to get to 3–4. And at that point, they were still three games back of the Giants in the NFC East. A little over a month later, the gap’s been closed to a half-game, with the loser of this matchup set to head into Week 14 in the NFC East cellar. And this, too, shapes up to be an important week for Taylor Heinicke, with Carson Wentz returning from injury. Chase Young would be one other player to watch, too. — A.B.
Titans (7–4) at Eagles (10–1), 1 p.m. ET Sunday: I love the Titans in this game. It will be a very real test of the Eagles’ supplemented run defense. After watching the Bengals game last week, we know Derrick Henry can be reduced to human, and has been in several stints over the past two seasons. However, this is one of those games that sets up perfectly for Henry to drag defenders all over the field, especially if the Eagles try to stand alone on the shoulders of Ndamukong Suh and Linval Joseph. — C.0.
Dolphins (8–3) at 49ers (7–4), 4:05 p.m. ET Sunday: The most anticipated matchup of the season for me, and sort of the apex of the Kyle Shanahan revolution. He is squaring off against his long-time mastermind, Mike McDaniel, in a game that could very well provide the blueprint for how to stop either of these Super Bowl favorites. While McDaniel isn’t just running wide zone, the genesis of his offense is steeped in the very fundamentals Shanahan was raised on by his father, Mike. — C.0.
Colts (4–7–1) at Cowboys (8–3), 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday: Not the most attractive Sunday night matchup, with Indianapolis coming off close losses to the Eagles and the Steelers, and a short week. But a good one to check in on Jeff Saturday’s candidacy for the full-time job in Indy. As for Dallas, the wins need to keep coming if the Cowboys are going to have any shot at catching the Eagles in the NFC East. — A.B.
Fantasy bold prediction
Mike White will be a top-10 fantasy quarterback … again. I admit it. I have Mike White fever! I love what I saw from the career backup last week, and he has a great matchup against the Vikings. Their defense has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, and it made Mac Jones look like Tom Brady on Thanksgiving night. In all, their defense has allowed 19-plus points to each rival signal-callers in the past three weeks. If you’re hurting at the position, start White. — Michael Fabiano
• Fabiano’s Week 13 Start ’Em, Sit ’Em: QB | RB | WR | TE | K / DST
Key questions
What is your one big prediction for Week 13?
Orr: I don’t know if it’s a “big” prediction necessarily, but I think the Browns will keep the ball on the ground against the Texans and do their best to protect Deshaun Watson in his return. The speed of the game is going to be unfathomable for someone who took two years off, and the Texans are a bit of a laugher as an opponent. Nick Chubb will do the work here.
Breer: The Ravens pitch a shutout against the Broncos, only turning the volume up in Denver on the state of the offense, and the progress of Russell Wilson within it. The Broncos barely mustered points in Carolina last week. And, on paper at least, it should be tougher to do so this week.
Which team most needs a win in Week 13?
Orr: The Browns. This is going to be a hostile environment for Watson and the team, but they are not on the same level as an opponent. Coming in and getting clipped by the lowly Texans would be awful for the Browns, especially given that Watson decided not to address any of his allegations on Thursday when he had the opportunity.
Breer: The Seahawks. Seattle is 2-8 in its last 10 games against the Rams, but this is a significantly weakened version—with Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Aaron Donald, Allen Robinson and Joe Noteboom among those on the shelf. The Seahawks have lost two straight and, because of the post-Germany bye, don’t have a win in almost a month. So if Seattle is going to keep up with a loaded 49ers team in the NFC West, this one has to be a get-right game.
Which coach or player is most under pressure in Week 13?
Orr: I’ll take a break from Browns-related responses and go with Giants coach Brian Daboll, who gets the first of two games against the division-rival Commanders this weekend. While this is earned pressure, for sure, Daboll is trying to salvage a playoff-bound season against an opponent that is playing its best football right now.
Breer: Deshaun Watson. For all the obvious reasons, one of which is that Jacoby Brissett has actually played really well, setting a relatively high bar, and proving himself not to be the reason the Browns are 4-7.
Which underdog has the best shot to win outright in Week 13?
Orr: In my SI Best Bets column this week, I picked the Titans. I like any team that can keep the Eagles’ star-studded offense off the field and expose them through the middle of their defense. I also like this as another big opportunity for Jeffery Simmons to blow up the Eagles’ run-pass-run options in the backfield. You can game plan for much in this league, but fast, physical interior pressure is among the most difficult.
Breer: I like the Raiders here. They’ve found their identity, and they’ll be at home. The Chargers have been up and down. Give me Vegas.
Who’s your pick for the biggest disappointment so far this season?
Orr: It has to be the Packers, right? Let’s not strain here. While they got rid of Davante Adams, they seemed delayed in establishing their rookie standout Christian Watson and unable to get much in the way of production out of their perceived stalwarts such as A.J. Dillon. I don’t know who saw them at 4–8 through this point in the year, using the remainder of the season as live practice time for 2023.
Breer: I’m with Conor. It’s gotta be the Packers. No one had them with eight losses before December, but here we are with the division gone and even a wild-card berth a long shot. Letting Adams go, even if it was a foregone conclusion, and relying on rookies Watson and Romeo Doubs to develop in time to take the torch from him for a win-now team seems like, in retrospect, a risk they shouldn’t have taken.
Who’s your pick for the biggest surprise so far this season?
Orr: New York football as a whole. While I didn’t think the Dolphins would be this good, I knew Mike McDaniel was smart and flexible. I think Daboll and Jets coach Robert Saleh showed us a lot about who they are as coaches and program builders despite having rosters that are not all the way “there.”
Breer: The Dolphins. I’d have called an 8-9 season a success for Mike McDaniel in Year 1. He deserved time to get Tua Tagovailoa fitted for his system and vice versa, and Tyreek Hill acclimated, too. And it turned out, he didn’t need that. Miami has eight wins with six games to go, and, anecdotally, for me, they’re the team that I get the most “You know who’s actually really good?” comments from NFL folks.
Sunday Night Football best bet
For the second time in two weeks, the Colts will invade national television and play on primetime. If it wasn’t for the Cowboys’ amazing ability to generate ratings, this game would have been flexed off Sunday Night Football. Buckle up NFL fans, as we’ll see a stiff Matt Ryan, the fifth-most sacked quarterback, against a Dallas defense that boasts 45 sacks, the most in the league. The oddsmakers at SI Sportsbook list the Cowboys as heavy favorites (-12.5). That may seem like a lot of points, but don’t let the spread scare you. The Cowboys are 7-4 against the spread and have a 4-2 ATS record at home. The Colts are 2-4 ATS on the road and are 5-7 ATS on the year. When Cowboys win, they tend to win big. Five of their eight wins have been by 12 points or more. Lay the points, take the plus money odds at +105 and by the end of Sunday night, you’ll be pumping your fist in the air screaming, "How ’bout them Cowboys."
Final thoughts
David Richard/AP Photo
Orr: Watson declined to address any off-field concerns reporters may have had on Thursday, this after delaying his press conference for a day. This is, ultimately, his right. Even though we, as reporters, would like all the information, it’s always up to someone as to whether they want to share it. Perhaps Watson will save his true feelings for a one-on-one interview with a reporter he is familiar with and, thus, will not expect certain questions from (or expect the questions posited in a certain way). But…as I said on the MMQB podcast this week, I don’t remember a player recovering from something like this without some kind of contrition. If his plan is to play, deflect, play and deflect, wouldn’t that be maddening after a while? While I am not privy to his legal meetings, I would imagine “sorry” was on the table Thursday and it was an option not ultimately selected.
Breer: I’m headed to Houston this weekend, and this has a chance to be one of the weirdest atmospheres for a game in NFL history. The Texans are the worst team in the league. The last couple times they’ve been at home, the local apathy has been apparent in the mountain of empty seats NRG Stadium has become. So my guess is that the great majority of people in that place will be there either to voice how they feel about Watson, or to see how those that will be there do it. I’m not sure exactly what that’ll actually look like. But I do know it’s going to be strange, and maybe appropriately representative of the way this whole thing was handled.
