After so many years of playing from behind with the Raiders, Derek Carr got a head start Tuesday.
His inevitable release was reported by multiple outlets before $40.4 million in guarantees kicked in, making the nine-year veteran a free agent. And the beauty of it for the Carr camp is he doesn’t have to wait until the free-agency negotiating period begins on March 13.
Carr has a clean slate, leaving the Raiders with more than $5.5 million in dead cap space, and can talk to any team without concern of compensation in terms of players or draft picks to the Raiders.
We’ll learn what other teams think of Carr by the kind of offers he receives. Is he viewed as a short-term fix for a team looking to groom another quarterback and accept minimal years? A long-term solution in hopes a supporting cast can be constructed to make Carr a winner?
Carr has already met with New Orleans, which in theory was interested in trading for him and his existing contract. And indications were the Saints wanted him to take a pay cut.
Of course, there is no way to know if that’s leaked information on behalf of one side or the other hoping to facilitate some sort of leverage.
Carr has pretty consistently been a top-12 quarterback, although this season he never seemed to connect with the Raiders’ latest regime, headed by coach Josh McDaniels and general manager Dave Ziegler. Not long past midseason, it seemed both sides were ready to move on.
That’s got to be a concern for anyone thinking about bringing Carr aboard. He’s never changed teams, but moving from the Jon Gruden system to the McDaniels system was radical in terms of having freedom at the line of scrimmage.
While Carr is not one to air grievances, he made that clear as diplomatically as possible in an in-season interview with The Athletic’s Vic Tafur. Carr had his worst statistical season since his rookie year with 24 touchdowns and 14 interceptions.
Having covered Carr in Oakland from 2014 through 2019, I can’t remember him looking as lost as he was in 2022 while getting shut out 24-0 by New Orleans (never crossing midfield) or a 13-10 loss to the Steelers that precipitated his benching and exit from day-to-day operations.
Carr is going to need a system with the freedom to change a play at the line of scrimmage rather than running each play as called, trusting that a progression is built in to account for any defensive look.
A look at this season’s offseason quarterback roulette with Tom Brady out of the picture after filing retirement papers:
Wild cards
— Lamar Jackson, Baltimore: The Ravens just hired Georgia offensive coordinator Todd Monken to run their offense and get Jackson back to his MVP form in 2019. The only way Jackson gets out of town is by forcing Baltimore’s hand with a holdout, or as players did last year, a “hold-in” – reporting but not participating.
If he forces the issue by insisting on a Deshaun Watson-level full guarantee ($230 million) or more, Baltimore could reluctantly give in. There’s also the possibility what’s going on right now is a contract ploy similar to what Deebo Samuel did for the 49ers last season.
Look no further than Super Bowl LVII, where quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts did considerable damage both passing and running to imagine what Jackson may be able to accomplish with the right system.
— Aaron Rodgers, Packers: Rodgers, 39, said on the Pat McAfee Show he will begin his “darkness retreat” to clear his mind and gave no indication whether or not he wants to move on.
The statuses of both Jackson and Rodgers affect Carr from the standpoint of whether interested teams would rather see those situations play out before committing to Carr. The New York Jets could have interest in both.
The issue with Rodgers, other than his unpredictable wishes and whims, is if any team would pick up a contract with cap numbers of $31,623,570 in 2023, $40,701,666 in 2024, $59,501,666 in 2025 and $53,451,668 in 2026.
Rodgers has been mostly connected with the Raiders as a destination, and former teammate Davante Adams has given the idea a thumbs-up on social media.
Teams on the lookout for a QB
— Las Vegas Raiders, New York Jets, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Carolina Panthers, Washington Commanders, New Orleans Saints, Atlanta Falcons, Tennessee Titans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Free agents
— Daniel Jones, N.Y. Giants: Coach Brian Daboll made a runner/passer out of Jones and it turned his career around. Wouldn’t expect the Giants to let Jones out of the building as he’ll cash in with a long-term deal or a franchise tag.
— Geno Smith, Seattle: Hard to imagine Seattle allowing Smith to walk away after reimagining his career at age 32 by completing 69.8% of his passes with 30 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. They traded Russell Wilson and upgraded. Who’d have figured?
— Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers: Garoppolo’s reputation as a winner (40-17) is the inverse of Carr (69-73). Carr, however, has played for an inferior team and has been extremely durable. How much will a team commit to a quarterback who has missed 40 games due to injury since being traded to the 49ers in 2017?
— Baker Mayfield, L.A. Rams: Mayfield has more fans among the coaching fraternity than you’d think. They like his anticipatory throwing skills and confidence. Mayfield opened some eyes with the way he played with no prep for the Rams as well as the way he conducted himself. Considering Matthew Stanford’s health, remaining with the Rams wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world.
— Sam Darnold, Panthers: After going 4-2 in six starts with seven touchdown passes, three interceptions and a 92.6 passer rating, there’s still a belief in some circles that at 26 years old Darnold can succeed with the right system and supporting cast.
— Jarrett Stidham, Raiders: A promising two-game audition after Carr was jettisoned could have him back with the Raiders. If they don’t land a big-name quarterback, Stidham could compete to start.
Classic backups
— Andy Dalton, Saints; Joe Flacco, Jets; Teddy Bridgewater, Dolphins; Jacoby Brissett, Browns; Gardner Minshew, Eagles.
