FORT WORTH, Texas — The first shoe has officially dropped on Jerry Jones’ dream scenario of hiring Sean Payton as coach of the Dallas Cowboys.
But hold on to your britches.
The second shoe is at least year away.
Never say never, but Payton’s decision to walk away from the New Orleans Saints on Tuesday after 15 seasons has too many legs and tentacles for him to simply walk into a job with the Cowboys for the 2022 season.
And that’s not even considering that the job still has coach Mike McCarthy sitting in the big chair.
The latter certainly can be handled ruthlessly and expeditiously if Jones so desired.
He has angrily kept McCarthy twisting in the wind since the Cowboys’ disappointing showing in the wild-card loss to the San Francisco 49ers.
Jones’ refusal to endorse McCarthy for 2022 after a 12-5 regular season and NFC East title under the guise of needing to evaluate the coaching staff may have been all about trying to bide time to let Payton make a decision and see if the Cowboys could find a way to make it happen.
ESPN reported that a few teams knew about Payton’s plans to step away from the Saints and explored ways to make a move for him.
Here is the problem.
Payton is under contract with the Saints until 2024. And a team would have to trade a first-round pick for him, at least.
The team would also have to go through a full-fledged coaching search, while satisfying the Rooney Rule of having to interview two minority candidates from the outside.
What minority coach would go through a sham interview knowing a team, namely the Cowboys, had plans of hiring Payton anyway?
Of course, this exact scenario almost happened following the 2018 season with Jones planning to fire Jason Garrett following a playoff loss to the Los Angeles Rams and hire Payton with the blessings of the Saints, per NBC Sports.
Jones has had a relationship with Payton since he served as an assistant coach under Bill Parcells in Dallas from 2003-2005 before taking the Saints job in 2006. The two sides have long coveted a reunion in Dallas.
It was always a matter of how it could happen and when.
The circumstances are different this time because Payton himself is leaving the Saints to recharge.
He said he could return to coaching but he doesn’t see it happening in 2022.
“That might be coaching again at some point,” Payton said. “I don’t think it’s this year, maybe in the future. That’s not where my heart is right now.”
What it all means is that if the Cowboys are going to get Payton it will be no sooner than 2023.
The compensation to the Saints would likely be less a year from now.
The Rooney Rule would still need to be complied with but the process of vetting candidates would be cleaner than a rush move for 2022.
Of course, McCarthy remains a key factor in the process.
Ironically, Payton mentioned during his retirement press conference on Tuesday that he got turned down by the Green Bay Packers for a head coaching job in 2006 in favor of McCarthy.
Since then, Payton has gone 152-89 with seven division titles and one Super Bowl title.
He heroically stepped away as the savior of the Saints franchise amid sadness and appreciation but with the universal blessing from an organization and a fan base to forge a new future whenever and wherever he decides.
Since 2006, McCarthy has a 143-92-2 mark with seven division titles and one Super Bowl title.
Of course, McCarthy’s seventh division title came in his second year with the Cowboys in 2021, three years after being fired by the Packers.
And he has yet to be universally loved by a Cowboys fan base and an ownership who collectively blame him for not having his team ready to play its best when it mattered most in the playoffs.
And now McCarthy will likely go into the 2022 season on the hot seat with the specter of Payton coming to Dallas hanging over his head.
The Cowboys will be hard-pressed to repeat their success of 2021 with 21 free agents and the expected loss of defensive coordinator Dan Quinn.
But winning the NFC East and getting back to the playoffs is just the baseline of the expectations for the third year of the McCarthy era.
Anything short of a Super Bowl will likely trigger the dream scenario Jones has long desired.
