Every February, Americans gather around their televisions to watch as a groundhog in a small town in western Pennsylvania pokes his head out of his burrow and either reacts to seeing his shadow in the snow or not. There’s a lot riding on the quasi-ancient superstition of “Groundhog Day”—six more weeks of winter or spring just around the corner—even if it’s just a collective figment of the imagination. For months now, economists have been poking their head above ground and looking around for signs of a “soft landing” of the economy, as 2022’s fears of a recession just around the corner have cooled and the pandemic fades further into memory.
So far, they’re still seeing shadows.
