The Cardinals will fill some pitching needs ahead of the Aug. 1 trade deadline, one way or another.
John Mozeliak and Co. will likely focus more on next year, given the team's lowly standing. The Cardinals could peddle pitchers with expiring contracts for hurlers under team control for 2024 and beyond.
But however it plays out, this team must make pitching development its top organizational priority.
The Cardinals are awash in young outfielders. They have impressive infield depth, too, and their catching is lined up for years to come.
This team must become markedly stronger on the mound — and much of that improvement will have to come from within.
This summer’s trade market will feature inflated prices, given the staggering number of pitching injuries across the sport. That would favor the Cardinals if they move potential free agents Jordan Montgomery, Jack Flaherty and Jordan Hicks for longer-term assets, but it could force the team to overpay for more immediate help.
There won’t be much in free agency after this season, past megastar Shohei Ohtani and perhaps Marcus Stroman, if the Chicago Cubs let him exercise his contract opt-out and leave.
Hence the need for the Cardinals to create internal solutions.
Flaherty and Montgomery seem likely to move on. Adam Wainwright is retiring, Steven Matz is currently off the rails, and Andre Pallante and Jake Woodford are back in middle relief.
This team will need more quality at the big league level and a greater quantity pushing up from the minors. Efforts to reach those goals must be intensified.
Consider the case of Matthew Liberatore. He drew positive reviews in spring training with his velocity uptick. Then he opened the season with eight strong stints for Triple-A Memphis to clear a big developmental hurdle.
He threw five shutout innings in his first Cardinals start this season. Things were finally looking up. Since then, Liberatore has allowed 17 earned runs in 20 innings on 27 hits and 12 walks. Ugh!
Consider the case of Zack Thompson, another young lefty struggling to get over the hump. The 19th overall pick in 2019 enjoyed big league success (1.96 ERA in 32 relief outings) as a two-pitch power arm for the bullpen.
Given their acute rotation needs for ’24, the Cardinals asked Thompson to transition back into a four-pitch starter at Memphis. It's not going well. He walked 31 batters (!) and allowed 24 earned runs in his first 25 innings.
Getting both Liberatore and Thompson on track is a huge priority. Improving in-season is possible, as Hicks proved while morphing from unusably wild to lockdown effective in a few short months.
The Cardinals have two other notable starter prospects at Memphis, fast-rising 2021 draft picks Gordon Graceffo and Michael McGreevy, but not much immediately behind them.
Graceffo climbed the ladder with excellent command and a fastball/slider combination that got swings and misses. But after shutting down in late April with shoulder soreness, he must rebuild strength. His changeup remains in development, and he needs more utility from his curveball, too.
McGreevy stayed on schedule while allowing three runs or fewer in 10 of his 13 starts for Memphis this season. He is a sinker/slider pitcher with excellent command, and the potential to feature a deceptive changeup given his mechanics.
Cardinals scouting czar Randy Flores hoped 2022 first-round pick Cooper Hjerpe could rise quickly, too, given his collegiate success, his funky lefty delivery, and his sweeping slider. And he was gaining traction at advanced Class A Peoria before landing on the injured list.
Liberatore, Graceffo, McGreevy and Hjerpe all currently profile as a No. 4/No. 5 starters in the big leagues. The same goes for former Mizzou pitcher Ian Bedell, who making a nice comeback from Tommy John surgery at Peoria.
His Midwest League teammate Tink Hence offers a much higher ceiling with a lively fastball and nasty curveball. But Hence is a slightly-built, high-effort pitcher who required careful development coming out of high school.
The Cardinals are bringing him along slowly, allowing him to physically mature and build strength, so his big league arrival could be years away.
Before the season started, the common complaint about Cardinals pitching was the lack of a true No. 1 or No 2 starter. Then 10-24 happened, and the need became more pitching, period.
So here’s the target the Cardinals must hit for 2024: Sturdy six-man rotation and six high-leverage relievers in the big leagues; six promising starters and six shuttle-worthy relievers at Memphis; and six pitching prospects at Double-A Springfield, ready to move up.
And somewhere in that pile, top-of-the-rotation and back-of-the-bullpen talent must emerge as the prospects work to raise their profile. Is there another Zac Gallen in there, another Ryan Helsley?
The Cardinals remain a draft-and-develop franchise under Bill DeWitt Jr.’s ownership, so the baseball operations must excel on both fronts to rebuild playoff-caliber pitching.
They can't count on outside help to fix this.
