This crazy college basketball season has underscored why the NCAA Tournament should expand from 68 teams to 90.
Last month the NCAA Division I Transformation Committee recommended the Association’s biggest sports include 25% of their teams in postseason play.
That recommendation, if accepted, would add at least 20 teams to the men’s and women’s basketball tournament. Missouri coach Dennis Gates has been on record favoring even more dramatic expansion.
“It's time now to give that another look and maybe grow,” Gates told reporters as the SEC Tipoff event in October. “I would like to see it doubled."
Expect further deliberations on this idea later this year. While many coaches oppose expansion, SEC commissioner Greg Sankey is among those willing to explore it.
The larger tournament would allow the NCAA to negotiate more lucrative television deals involving new partners.
So, yeah, this could happen just as the College Football Playoff expansion happened. Business is business.
Opponents of expansion argue that adding more teams would dilute “March Madness” and threaten its popularity.
Ah, but the competitive landscape has changed dramatically since the field expanded to 68 teams in 2011. If done correctly, a Bigger Dance could be a huge win.
More schools keep climbing up to the Division I level, as Lindenwood and Southern Indiana did in the Ohio Valley Conference for this season. There are 363 schools and counting at the highest level.
But fewer mid-major schools are getting at-large berths to the NCAA Tournament. Back in 2012 and 2013, the tournament selection committee gave 16 at-large berths to mid-majors. More recently, the average has been about five.
The ever-evolving Missouri Valley Conference has put as many as four teams in the tournament in the past. It looks to be a one-bid league this season, but through the weekend five MVC teams were 18-9 or better and six were 10-6 or better in league play.
Changes in the selection process have squeezed out top mid-majors that failed to with their league tournament and automatic berth. Building a strong at-large case has become harder, especially with power conference schools ducking them.
“With more advanced analytics now assisting with scheduling, far more schools know the metrics that will produce a successful résumé on Selection Sunday,” Loyola Marymount athletics director Craig Pintens wrote in an opinion piece supporting a 96-team tournament. “This has made coaches more apprehensive and cautious as they avoid teams in the middle of your favorite ranking, as there is a chance you could lose to them. With more teams in the tournament, coaches would be more apt to take risks in scheduling.”
The NCAA-operated NIT has been rewarding top mid-majors that didn't earn automatic or at-large berths to the NCAA Tournament. Many of those teams could go to a Bigger Dance instead and the unloved NIT could go away.
“The beauty of the NCAA tournament is the superb storytelling that takes place and the exposure it affords an institution,” Pintens wrote. “Everyone loves Cinderella, and under the 96-team bracket, it creates more opportunities for storylines like Saint Peter’s and VCU — the improbable 15-seed or the team that goes from the First Four to the Final Four.”
Expansion would help power conference schools as well. More of them are making bigger financial commitments to basketball, rendering the Big Ten, Big 12, Big East, Atlantic Coast Conference and Southeastern Conference deeper and more treacherous.
Last year, Texas A&M finished with a flourish, winning at No. 25 Alabama and beating No. 4 Auburn and No. 15 Arkansas while reaching the title game of the SEC Tournament.
The NCAA tournament selection committee stiffed the Aggies despite their 23-11 record, so they won four games in the NIT instead. Sankey cited Texas A&M while noting how a bigger field could have merit.
Unlike during the decades before, there are a LOT of good teams in each of the power conferences.
Missouri, picked 11th in the preseason SEC poll, just upset No. 6 Tennessee after toppling Kentucky and Arkansas earlier.
Mississippi State, which comes to Boone County next week, started 1-7 in league play. Then the Bulldogs beat No. 11 TCU in the SEC/Big 12 challenge and won their next four games, including a smackdown of Mizzou in Starkville and a huge win at Arkansas.
Such stories abound around the country. Northwestern, picked 13th in the Big Ten’s preseason media poll, just took down top-ranked Purdue. The Wildcats climbed into a second-place tie in the league that has eight at-large hopefuls.
Pittsburgh, picked 14th in the ACC preseason poll, advanced its unexpected at-large quest with victories over ranked teams North Carolina, Virginia and Miami.
Texas Tech, which started 0-8 in Big 12 play, has scored upsets over ranked rivals Iowa State, Kansas State and Texas.
So it goes in college basketball these days, where the parity extends well past 68 teams. Previous norms have been shattered and the NCAA should create a tournament format that reflects that.
