As the dust begins to settle on the latest political cycle, a new and formidable force is already carving out a dominant path toward the future of the Republican party. While the next presidential contest remains years away, the political landscape is shifting with such velocity that commentators are struggling to find adequate comparisons for the sheer scale of the momentum. It is a surge that has left established rivals looking less like competitors and more like spectators at a high-speed race where only one driver has been given the keys to a supercar.
The Mario Andretti of Politics
The information that led to this meteoric rise is nothing short of historic. Harry Enten, CNN's chief data analyst, says that the current Vice President JD Vance is not only leading, but also 'running well ahead' of all other possible Republican candidates for the 2028 GOP presidential primaries. Enten's review of the field on Dec. 29, 2025, was especially harsh.
He compared the vice president to Formula One great Mario Andretti. This colourful comparison shows possible opponents, like Secretary of State Marco Rubio, 'going around in go-karts' while the frontrunner speeds ahead towards the horizon.
This isn't just TV hype; the facts on the ground tell an even more interesting story. A poll from the University of New Hampshire Granite State in October shows that a huge number of likely primary voters support this candidate. Fifty-one percent of the people who were asked said they would vote for the vice president in 2028. This is what the poll calls a 'considerable lead over prospective rivals'.
To put this dominance into perspective, the closest trailing candidates are Nikki Haley, a former UN ambassador, with only 9% of the vote, and Tulsi Gabbard, the National Intelligence Director, with only 8%. Sarah Huckabee Sanders and Rand Paul, who are also possible opponents, are even further behind with only 4% support each. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy are now only 3% behind.
Balancing the Crown
For any other politician, such a commanding lead might trigger an immediate campaign launch, but the vice president is playing a much more calculated game of patience and duty. During a recent interview with Fox News' Sean Hannity, he made it clear that his focus remains firmly on the present rather than the distant lure of the Oval Office. 'The American people elected me to do a job right now, and my job is to do it,' he told Hannity, adding that focusing on what comes next can actually make a leader 'worse at the job that you have'.
This disciplined approach appears to be part of a broader strategy to secure the party's future through the upcoming midterm elections before making any formal declarations. He noted that he has thought about what that moment might look like, but insists on putting those thoughts out of his head for now. 'We're gonna win the midterms. We're gonna do everything that we can to win the midterms,' he stated, confirming that any conversation about 2028 will only happen after a sit-down with the president of the United States once the midterms are concluded.
Despite this public insistence on 'focusing on the now', the prediction markets and analysts like Enten remain convinced that the trajectory is set. As Enten noted on Monday, 'if you win the GOP primary in New Hampshire, chances are, you're going to be the Republican nominee for president.' The data suggests Enten is not alone in this assessment; current prediction market odds on platforms like Polymarket now give Vance a 48% chance of securing the nomination, compared to just 12% for Marco Rubio.
By pulling off something historic this early in the cycle — becoming the first non-incumbent vice president in modern polling history to surpass 50% in an early New Hampshire primary survey — the vice president has established himself as the 'far and away favourite' for the nomination. For the rest of the Republican field, the challenge is no longer just about catching up; it is about finding a way to even get into the same race as the man currently redefining the GOP's future.
