Jayson Tatum struggled big time in the Boston Celtics’ Game 3 loss to the Miami Heat, matching a postseason-low 10 points on just 3-of-14 shooting from the field. Had he simply played a game closer to his average of about 27 points, the Celtics would’ve had a great chance to come out on top in a game they lost by just six points.
Of course, Miami’s hellacious defense played a part in his performance. The Heat led by as much as 26, and despite allowing Boston to come all the way back within a point in the fourth quarter, they held Tatum to two points and zero field goals in the second half.
However, recent evidence suggests Tatum will bounce back in a big way in Game 4. He’s averaging 10 more points per game following losses than he does after wins this postseason. So assuming he has no lingering effects from a cervical nerve impingement, his prop to score more than 27.5 points on Tipico Sportsbook is a good bet.
Marcus Smart (ankle sprain) and Robert Williams (knee soreness) are questionable for Game 4 tomorrow.
The Celtics have listed Jayson Tatum as probable. pic.twitter.com/hIQwQponsx
— Yahoo Sports NBA (@YahooSportsNBA) May 22, 2022
Following Boston’s previous four losses, Tatum bounced back to score 29, 30, 46 and 27 for an average of 33 points. That’s up from 23.8 after wins this postseason, which includes their first-round sweep of the Nets where he averaged 29. If you subtract that series, he’s only averaging 21 after wins.
Miami’s defense isn’t going to just lay down and let him score 30, but that wasn’t the case in Games 1 and 2 either when he scored 29 and 27, respectively. And he might have scored more in Game 2 (after a loss in Game 1) had it not been such a blowout — he had 20 at the half. His other three games after losses were in the second round against the Milwaukee Bucks, who also had a strong defense. Yet, Tatum still found a way to drop 46 on them in Game 6.
Tatum is such a talented scorer that his output is usually dictated by whether he’s on or off more than it is the other team. So far in these playoffs, he’s simply been on after losses more. It’s been good for the Celtics, who haven’t dropped back-to-back games yet. And it should be good for bettors, who have a chance to capitalize.
