There are times in life when the second shall be first.
In the 2023 draft, the Carolina Panthers made a major trade with the Chicago Bears to jump up and take Alabama quarterback Bryce Young with the No 1 overall pick. The Houston Texans were second, and they took Ohio State’s CJ Stroud.
More than a season later, the returns have returned. Young has struggled to the point where he’s the backup for a 36-year-old journeyman, and Stroud – who had one of the best rookie quarterback seasons ever – was the runaway NFL Offensive Rookie of the year.
In the 2024 draft, quarterbacks went one and two again. The Bears took USC’s Caleb Williams with the first overall pick they got from the Panthers the year before. And then, the Washington Commanders selected LSU’s Jayden Daniels at No 2.
And with that selection, a once comical franchise appears to have been saved.
Williams has played about as well as the Bears’ offense will let him, but after the first four weeks of the 2024 season, Daniels doesn’t just look like the best rookie signal-caller in his class – he looks like one of the best rookie quarterbacks we’ve ever seen.
The numbers so far have been preposterous.
Daniels’ EPA per dropback (a reliable indicator of per-play efficiency) of 0.32 is the highest for any rookie quarterback in Weeks 1-4 since at least 2000, and Daniels leads the NFL in passing EPA overall at +50.7. That’s some distance ahead of Josh Allen, who is second at +36.7.
Daniels’ completion rate of 82.1% is the highest for any quarterback over a four-game stretch at any point in a career (minimum 100 pass attempts) since at least 1950.
The Commanders have had 23 scoring drives this season, and Daniels has just 19 incompletions. The 1973 Los Angeles Rams are the only other team in NFL history to have more scoring drives than incompletions in the first four games of a season.
The 2024 Commanders have the second-highest EPA per drive through the first four games of a season in NFL history. The 2007 New England Patriots, widely regarded as the best offensive team ever, are the only team with a higher overall efficiency.
Some quarterbacks who are ruthlessly efficient become so because they throw mostly cheap stuff underneath defensive coverages. That’s not Daniels. On passes of 10-19 air yards this season, he has completed 18 of 21 passes for 294 yards, one touchdown, no interceptions, a passer rating of 134.6, and a passing EPA of +29.0 – second-best in the NFL behind Brock Purdy. On passes of 20 or more air yards, Daniels has completed two of eight passes for 82 yards, one touchdown, one interception, a passer rating of 69.8, and a passing EPA of +0.4. The deep ball has been one of Daniels’ few shortcomings so far, but you can already see him processing the mistakes, and moving forward.
Washington’s 42-14 thrashing of the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday was a meaningful homecoming for Daniels, who spent his first three collegiate seasons at Arizona State before transferring to LSU, and for Commanders offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury, who was the Cardinals’ head coach from 2019-2022. Commanders head coach Dan Quinn made sure to give Kingsbury the game ball after the win, because he knows how much it meant to his OC, and how much Kingsbury has taken Daniels’ ridiculous attributes to their highest possible plane.
Not that Daniels is perfect. As is the case with any rookie quarterback, he makes the occasional boneheaded throw. But defenses can’t count on him making an error, and they need to take advantage if he does, because he learns from his mistakes, and he does so quickly on the field. We saw that in Sunday’s game. In the first-half, Daniels threw his first NFL interception: Arizona cornerback Garrett Williams was in a better position than Washington’s Terry McLaurin on a late, deep pass and picked the rookie off. On Daniels’ next attempt, he again threw late to McLaurin on a deep pass, and Williams nearly had another pick. But Daniels settled down, and threw just two incompletions from then on.
If you're going to zap Jayden Daniels when he does make the occasional mistake, that's great, but he learns. Quickly. Two bad 2Q throws -- the INT, and the next play was a late miss to McLaurin. Other than that, he completed 26 of 28 passes. pic.twitter.com/SWI7VIjfK7
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) September 30, 2024
“They didn’t really say anything to me,” Daniels said of his coaches and teammates regarding the interception. “I want that one back, but you’re good, move on to the next play. The NFL is always about the next play. You can’t go back and fix what happened in the past, but nobody really had a conversation with me about that.”
Perhaps because they know that Daniels rarely makes the same mistake twice.
And for the most part, Daniels has already shown that he’s capable of running a complex NFL offense in a way you don’t expect from first-year guys. He’s already processing the game in line with his physical attributes at a level you’d expect from Patrick Mahomes or Matthew Stafford, the acknowledged masters of pocket movement and the no-look pass. This 17-yard completion to fellow rookie Luke McCaffrey (the younger brother of Christian) against the Cardinals had Daniels doing all of that. It’s hard for a defense to have an appropriate answer to a play like this. Something you just have to accept it, tip your cap, and move on.
You really need to check out the end zone view of Daniels' 17-yard completion to Luke McCaffrey in the fourth quarter. Subtle pocket movement to elude pressure up the middle, and then the way he made the no-look pass into a tight window. That's professional quarterbacking. pic.twitter.com/aSCg02YZsT
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) September 30, 2024
While there have been other rookie quarterbacks who have started off strong in the NFL only to flame out, Daniels looks like he is here to stay. Kingsbury has expanded his playcalling palette from his Arizona days to give Daniels open concepts for his receivers, and although Daniels has no issue going through all the progressions in a play, he also knows when to take the profit his coaches and targets have set up for him. Daniels can play superstar when it’s required, but he doesn’t simply rely on his physical talents – and at 6ft 4in and 210lbs with blazing speed he has a few. As was the case during his Heisman Trophy season of 2023, Daniels just understands the game at a different level. That was true when I was able to watch tape with him the day before he won that award, and it’s even more so now.
As Quinn said after Sunday’s game, his new quarterback who won’t let anything (including an Old Home Week return to the Valley of the Sun) affect his preparation.
“I had told him earlier that I was really proud of him. I knew there were some extra stories being here back at ASU. And much like Kliff, you would never have known that. I just thought he handled it like a real G. Stayed steady all the way through in terms of the preparation,” Quinn said. “He and the quarterbacks and the guys, there were many late nights in the room watching tape together. There was just one office down from mine in the hotel and all the way through the week including last night, just putting in the extra time going into it. They just kind of stayed around and were talking through all the stuff, so I think that speaks to their preparation.”
Which is why, as impressive as he’s already been, Daniels is unlikely to be a four-game wonder. What you see with this particular marvel is exactly what you get.
