Aaron Rodgers was riding high after beating the Houston Texans in Week 9. He’d unlocked the full capability of Garrett Wilson and had thrown a season-high three touchdown passes in an upset primetime win. It was only one game, but it showcased the promise the New York Jets had seen when they traded for a quarterback about to hit his fifth decade on this planet back in 2023.
This high did not last. Rodgers and the Jets were kept out of the end zone entirely in Week 10 against an underwhelming Arizona Cardinals defense. This was a major disappointment. But was Rodgers the most disappointing quarterback of Week 10?
Fortunately, we’ve got a metric that can help figure that out.
Using the advanced stat expected points added (EPA) can gauge how much a quarterback brings to the table compared to a typical player. By comparing each passer’s Week 10 EPA against their 2024 average to date we get a better picture of just how frustrating their performances were. And we can find both of those thanks to The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and his incredibly useful stats sites RBSDM.com and HabitatRing.com.
This is a metric that gauges disappointment based on what we’d typically expect. Daniel Jones had a negative EPA in Week 10 while losing to the Carolina Panthers, but his -4.4 was still better than his season-long average of -5.0 EPA per game, so he missed the list. Who was the worst? There were several candidates but only one man can truly call himself the grossest quarterback of Week 10.
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5. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
2024 expected points added (EPA) per game: 4.8
Week 10 EPA: -1.5
Difference: 6.3 points worse
Goff completed 10 passes in his first half against the Houston Texans. Three were to guys wearing Battle Red uniforms.
In fairness, one came on a last second Hail Mary and the other two were deflected. This still showed an uncharacteristic lack of pocket awareness from the veteran quarterback who’d thrown 11 touchdowns without an interception over his previous five games.
DEFENSE GOING CRAZY 🤯 TO'OTO'O WITH THE TAKEAWAY
📺: @SNFonNBC pic.twitter.com/ZL6nRv6jEq
— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) November 11, 2024
The fresh start of the second half lasted less than two minutes before pick No. 4 — this one from the red zone to wipe out a scoring opportunity. A fifth interception followed.
Then the Lions came back from a 16-point halftime deficit anyway. I’m not sure exactly how you stop Detroit if five interceptions can’t do it.
4. Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets
2024 expected points added (EPA) per game: -1.3
Week 10 EPA: -8.4
Difference: 7.1 points worse
Rodgers had a tremendous opportunity against a bottom five passing defense. Instead, he failed to find the end zone, falling 31-6 to the Arizona Cardinals and leaving the Jets one defeat away from a ninth-straight losing record.
Rodgers gained a net 128 yards on 38 dropbacks. He completed a single pass that traveled more than 10 yards downfield. Behold, the pass chart of a game manager!
New York traded away multiple high value draft picks, then spent two seasons adding former Rodgers teammates of varying ability just to wind up with Davis Mills behind center in Arizona.
3. Joe Flacco, Indianapolis Colts
2024 expected points added (EPA) per game: 0.9
Week 10 EPA: -11.9
Difference: 12.8 points worse
The Flacco of 2023, who launched bombs and propelled the Cleveland Browns to the playoffs, is dead. The Flacco of 2024 looks much more like the fading veteran to whom we’d come accustomed as a New York Jet and Denver Bronco.
His very first play of the game saw him blank Taron Johnson, sitting underneath in coverage waiting to turn Flacco’s mistake into six hard-fought points.
LET'S GOOOO, @Taronj11‼️
📺: @paramountplus pic.twitter.com/akSrbn7rf6
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) November 10, 2024
One drive later, Flacco threw another interception — this time in Buffalo territory to snuff out a potential scoring drive. Things improved from there, but the 39-year-old couldn’t complete a Colts comeback, taking a brutal sack on fourth down in the red zone in what was a 20-13 game, then effectively sealing this one with his third pick of the day. After churning this game film, it may be Anthony Richardson’s turn in the starting lineup once more.
2. Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
2024 expected points added (EPA) per game: -3.9
Week 10 EPA: -18.2
Difference: 14.3 points worse
The New England Patriots and a bottom 10 defense allowed Williams a wonderful opportunity to throw his first touchdown pass since October 13. Instead, the Bears were held out of the end zone altogether thanks to an offensive line that allowed its young quarterback to be sacked nine times.
99 + 41 = the 5th Pats sack today ‼️
📺: FOX pic.twitter.com/ppqt8toDbk
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) November 10, 2024
Williams had little room to operate against a bottom 10 pass rush. D’Andre Swift couldn’t find lanes because his blockers were getting smothered by a defense that had given up 100-plus rushing yards each of the last seven games. The end result was 39 dropbacks and 69 net passing yards. Each time Matt Eberflus dialed up a passing play, it averaged fewer than two yards of forward progress.
Williams didn’t complete a single pass that traveled more than 10 yards downfield. He only attempted four.
1. Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders
2024 expected points added (EPA) per game: 9.3
Week 10 EPA: -7.2
Difference: 16.5 points worse
Daniels wasn’t the worst quarterback of Week 10, but his incredible start left him with more room to fall than any other passer in the league. While he was able to spread the field and made Terry McLaurin look great once more:
Jayden Daniels stands in the pocket, takes a big hit and STILL drops an absolute rainbow into a tight window for Terry McLaurin. absolute stud behavior pic.twitter.com/fybQBYKFVX
— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) November 10, 2024
The accuracy and efficiency that defined his rise to rookie of the year frontrunner washed away with the game on the line. Daniels had three drives in the final 17 minutes in which any points would have pushed the Commanders’ lead to two possessions and made a Pittsburgh Steelers comeback very unlikely. He gained two first downs between them (though a third was negated by a genuinely baffling fourth down spot in his final snap of the afternoon).
Daniels’s line over those final three drives? Nine attempts, four completions, 49 passing yards, one rushing yard and a sack for a loss of 11. 11 plays and 39 net yards with the game on the line. Rough scene.
Still, it’s merely a speed bump against a veteran-laden top 10 defense. Daniels will be back. Sunday’s setback just gives him a lower perch from which he’ll fall if he donks up again next week.
